Thu, Oct 20 2022
·
Week 8
·
🏟 Hancock Whitney Stadium
Mobile, AL
·
Turf
·
25,000 cap
Troy✈ 625 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
South Alabama
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
South Alabama entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
South Alabama wins
Lean
Game Control
76%
South Alabama wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
South Alabama -3
O/U 47.0
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → South Alabama
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Troy 2022 Schedule
Troy's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/3 | Troy at Ole Miss | +21.5L10–28 | 56.5 | L10–28 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/10 | Troy vs Alabama A&M | -37.5W38–17 | 52.0 | W38–17 | O | N |
| Sat 9/17 | Troy at App State | +14.0L28–32 | 52.0 | L28–32 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/24 | Troy vs Marshall | +3.0W16–7 | 51.5 | W16–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/1 | Troy at Western Kentucky | +5.0W34–27 | 55.0 | W34–27 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/8 | Troy vs Southern Miss | -7.0W27–10 | 44.0 | W27–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/15 | Troy vs Texas State | -16.5W17–14 | 47.0 | W17–14 | U | N |
| Thu 10/20 | Troy at South Alabama | +3.0W10–6 | 47.0 | W10–6 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/5 | Troy at Louisiana | -3.5W23–17 | 42.5 | W23–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/12 | Troy vs Army | -8.5W10–9 | 45.5 | W10–9 | U | N |
| Sat 11/19 | Troy vs UL Monroe | -15.0W34–16 | 48.5 | W34–16 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/26 | Troy at Arkansas State | -13.5W48–19 | 43.5 | W48–19 | O | Y |
| Sat 12/3 | Troy vs Coastal Carolina | -7.0W45–26 | 49.0 | W45–26 | O | Y |
| Fri 12/16 | Troy vs UTSA | -2.0W18–12 | 55.5 | W18–12 | U | Y |
South Alabama 2022 Schedule
South Alabama's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/3 | South Alabama vs Nicholls | -13.5W48–7 | 53.0 | W48–7 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/10 | South Alabama at Central Michigan | +6.0W38–24 | 57.5 | W38–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/17 | South Alabama at UCLA | +15.5L31–32 | 59.5 | L31–32 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/24 | South Alabama vs Louisiana Tech | -13.0W38–14 | 59.0 | W38–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/1 | South Alabama at Louisiana | -8.5W20–17 | 47.0 | W20–17 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/15 | South Alabama vs UL Monroe | -17.0W41–34 | 51.0 | W41–34 | O | N |
| Thu 10/20 | South Alabama vs Troy | -3.0L6–10 | 47.0 | L6–10 | U | N |
| Sat 10/29 | South Alabama at Arkansas State | -9.0W31–3 | 52.5 | W31–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/5 | South Alabama at Georgia Southern | -3.5W38–31 | 60.5 | W38–31 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/12 | South Alabama vs Texas State | -16.0W38–21 | 46.0 | W38–21 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/19 | South Alabama at Southern Miss | -7.5W27–20 | 45.0 | W27–20 | O | N |
| Sat 11/26 | South Alabama vs Old Dominion | -16.5W27–20 | 47.0 | W27–20 | U | N |
| Wed 12/21 | South Alabama vs Western Kentucky | -4.0L23–44 | 58.0 | L23–44 | O | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2022 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ South Alabama
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ South Alabama
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ South Alabama
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2022 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
South Alabama Edge
South Alabama +0.53
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
South Alabama Edge
South Alabama +25.4
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on South Alabama with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Troy
Jon Sumrall #1
0–0 (0%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Joe Craddock
Yr 1
#1
DC
Shiel Wood
Yr 1
#1
South Alabama
Kane Wommack #1
5–7 (42%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Major Applewhite
Yr 2
#1
DC
Corey Batoon
Yr 2
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓