Sat, Aug 27 2022
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Week 1
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🏟 Allegiant Stadium
Las Vegas, NV
·
Turf
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65,000 cap
Idaho State✈ 2,156 mi-1 hr TZ
Preseason projection — This game has not yet been played and 2022 in-season data is not yet available.
Edges are based on 2021 full-season performance.
Confidence will increase once in-season games are logged.
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
67.1%
UNLV wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
UNLV -23.0
O/U 50.0
Bovada
Idaho State 2022 Schedule
Idaho State's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/27 | Idaho State at UNLV | +23.0L21–52 | 50.0 | L21–52 | O | N |
| Sat 9/10 | Idaho State at San Diego State | +33.5L7–38 | 50.5 | L7–38 | U | Y |
UNLV 2022 Schedule
UNLV's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/27 | UNLV vs Idaho State | -23.0W52–21 | 50.0 | W52–21 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/10 | UNLV at California | +12.0L14–20 | 49.5 | L14–20 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/17 | UNLV vs North Texas | -2.5W58–27 | 62.5 | W58–27 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/24 | UNLV at Utah State | -3.0W34–24 | 61.5 | W34–24 | U | Y |
| Fri 9/30 | UNLV vs New Mexico | -14.0W31–20 | 44.0 | W31–20 | O | N |
| Fri 10/7 | UNLV at San José State | +6.5L7–40 | 51.5 | L7–40 | U | N |
| Sat 10/15 | UNLV vs Air Force | +10.0L7–42 | 50.0 | L7–42 | U | N |
| Sat 10/22 | UNLV at Notre Dame | +26.0L21–44 | 46.5 | L21–44 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/5 | UNLV at San Diego State | +5.0L10–14 | 47.0 | L10–14 | U | Y |
| Fri 11/11 | UNLV vs Fresno State | +9.0L30–37 | 61.5 | L30–37 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/19 | UNLV at Hawai'i | -11.0L25–31 | 56.5 | L25–31 | U | N |
| Sat 11/26 | UNLV vs Nevada | -12.5W27–22 | 49.0 | W27–22 | U | N |
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Idaho State Edge
Idaho State +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 2021 full season · preseason estimate
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
UNLV Edge
UNLV +20.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 67.1% of games historically
Based on 2021 full season · preseason estimate
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓