Matchup Prediction
Purdue
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Purdue entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Purdue wins
Lean
Game Control
58.6%
Purdue wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Purdue -14
O/U 56.0
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
Advanced factors are split · No strong agreement signal
↓ See full breakdown
Nebraska 2022 Schedule
Nebraska's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/27 | Nebraska vs Northwestern | -12.0L28–31 | 52.5 | L28–31 | O | N |
| Sat 9/3 | Nebraska vs North Dakota | -28.5W38–17 | 62.5 | W38–17 | U | N |
| Sat 9/10 | Nebraska vs Georgia Southern | -23.5L42–45 | 64.0 | L42–45 | O | N |
| Sat 9/17 | Nebraska vs Oklahoma | +10.5L14–49 | 65.5 | L14–49 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/1 | Nebraska vs Indiana | -6.5W35–21 | 62.0 | W35–21 | U | Y |
| Fri 10/7 | Nebraska at Rutgers | -3.0W14–13 | 50.5 | W14–13 | U | N |
| Sat 10/15 | Nebraska at Purdue | +14.0L37–43 | 56.0 | L37–43 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/29 | Nebraska vs Illinois | +7.5L9–26 | 50.5 | L9–26 | U | N |
| Sat 11/5 | Nebraska vs Minnesota | +14.5L13–20 | 44.5 | L13–20 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/12 | Nebraska at Michigan | +30.5L3–34 | 49.5 | L3–34 | U | N |
| Sat 11/19 | Nebraska vs Wisconsin | +10.0L14–15 | 40.5 | L14–15 | U | Y |
| Fri 11/25 | Nebraska at Iowa | +10.5W24–17 | 38.0 | W24–17 | O | Y |
Purdue 2022 Schedule
Purdue's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 9/1 | Purdue vs Penn State | +3.5L31–35 | 53.5 | L31–35 | O | N |
| Sat 9/10 | Purdue vs Indiana State | -37.0W56–0 | 54.0 | W56–0 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/17 | Purdue at Syracuse | +1.5L29–32 | 59.5 | L29–32 | O | N |
| Sat 9/24 | Purdue vs Florida Atlantic | -16.0W28–26 | 57.0 | W28–26 | U | N |
| Sat 10/1 | Purdue at Minnesota | +9.0W20–10 | 53.0 | W20–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/8 | Purdue at Maryland | +3.0W31–29 | 59.5 | W31–29 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/15 | Purdue vs Nebraska | -14.0W43–37 | 56.0 | W43–37 | O | N |
| Sat 10/22 | Purdue at Wisconsin | +1.5L24–35 | 51.5 | L24–35 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/5 | Purdue vs Iowa | -3.5L3–24 | 39.5 | L3–24 | U | N |
| Sat 11/12 | Purdue at Illinois | +6.0W31–24 | 44.0 | W31–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/19 | Purdue vs Northwestern | -17.5W17–9 | 44.5 | W17–9 | U | N |
| Sat 11/26 | Purdue at Indiana | -10.0W30–16 | 52.5 | W30–16 | U | Y |
| Sat 12/3 | Purdue vs Michigan | +16.0L22–43 | 53.0 | L22–43 | O | N |
| Mon 1/2 | Purdue vs LSU | +15.0L7–63 | 54.0 | L7–63 | O | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2022 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2022 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Purdue Edge
Purdue +0.20
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Purdue Edge
Purdue +6.8
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.6% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Purdue
4 — 1 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Purdue
91.7 — 4.6 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Purdue won by 6
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Purdue. Teams with this edge profile have covered 50.3% historically — essentially a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Nebraska
Scott Frost #1
15–29 (34%)
· Yr 5 at school
OC
Mark Whipple
Yr 1
#1
DC
Erik Chinander
Yr 2
#1
Purdue
Jeff Brohm #1
28–29 (49%)
· Yr 6 at school
OC
Brian Brohm
Yr 2
#1
DC
Ron English
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓