Matchup Prediction
Purdue
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Purdue entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Purdue wins
Lean
Game Control
75.9%
Purdue wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Purdue -10
O/U 52.5
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Purdue
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Purdue 2022 Schedule
Purdue's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 9/1 | Purdue vs Penn State | +3.5L31–35 | 53.5 | L31–35 | O | N |
| Sat 9/10 | Purdue vs Indiana State | -37.0W56–0 | 54.0 | W56–0 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/17 | Purdue at Syracuse | +1.5L29–32 | 59.5 | L29–32 | O | N |
| Sat 9/24 | Purdue vs Florida Atlantic | -16.0W28–26 | 57.0 | W28–26 | U | N |
| Sat 10/1 | Purdue at Minnesota | +9.0W20–10 | 53.0 | W20–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/8 | Purdue at Maryland | +3.0W31–29 | 59.5 | W31–29 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/15 | Purdue vs Nebraska | -14.0W43–37 | 56.0 | W43–37 | O | N |
| Sat 10/22 | Purdue at Wisconsin | +1.5L24–35 | 51.5 | L24–35 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/5 | Purdue vs Iowa | -3.5L3–24 | 39.5 | L3–24 | U | N |
| Sat 11/12 | Purdue at Illinois | +6.0W31–24 | 44.0 | W31–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/19 | Purdue vs Northwestern | -17.5W17–9 | 44.5 | W17–9 | U | N |
| Sat 11/26 | Purdue at Indiana | -10.0W30–16 | 52.5 | W30–16 | U | Y |
| Sat 12/3 | Purdue vs Michigan | +16.0L22–43 | 53.0 | L22–43 | O | N |
| Mon 1/2 | Purdue vs LSU | +15.0L7–63 | 54.0 | L7–63 | O | N |
Indiana 2022 Schedule
Indiana's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/2 | Indiana vs Illinois | -1.0W23–20 | 47.5 | W23–20 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/10 | Indiana vs Idaho | -24.5W35–22 | 50.5 | W35–22 | O | N |
| Sat 9/17 | Indiana vs Western Kentucky | -7.0W33–30 | 61.0 | W33–30 | O | N |
| Sat 9/24 | Indiana at Cincinnati | +16.5L24–45 | 57.0 | L24–45 | O | N |
| Sat 10/1 | Indiana at Nebraska | +6.5L21–35 | 62.0 | L21–35 | U | N |
| Sat 10/8 | Indiana vs Michigan | +23.5L10–31 | 57.5 | L10–31 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/15 | Indiana vs Maryland | +11.0L33–38 | 63.0 | L33–38 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/22 | Indiana at Rutgers | +3.0L17–24 | 48.0 | L17–24 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/5 | Indiana vs Penn State | +13.5L14–45 | 50.0 | L14–45 | O | N |
| Sat 11/12 | Indiana at Ohio State | +40.0L14–56 | 62.0 | L14–56 | O | N |
| Sat 11/19 | Indiana at Michigan State | +12.0W39–31 | 47.0 | W39–31 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/26 | Indiana vs Purdue | +10.0L16–30 | 52.5 | L16–30 | U | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2022 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Purdue
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2022 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Purdue Edge
Purdue +0.30
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Purdue Edge
Purdue +32.6
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Purdue with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Purdue
Jeff Brohm #1
28–29 (49%)
· Yr 6 at school
OC
Brian Brohm
Yr 2
#1
DC
Ron English
Yr 1
#1
Indiana
Tom Allen #1
26–32 (45%)
· Yr 6 at school
OC
Walt Bell
Yr 1
#1
DC
Chad Wilt
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓