Sun, Jan 1 2023
·
Postseason
·
Neutral Site
·
🏟 Mercedes-Benz Stadium
Atlanta, GA
·
Turf
·
71,000 cap
Ohio State✈ 438 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Georgia
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Georgia entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Georgia wins
Lean
Game Control
58.6%
Georgia wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Georgia -5.5
O/U 62.0
Bovada
Advanced Stats
Advanced factors are split · No strong agreement signal
↓ See full breakdown
Ohio State 2022 Schedule
Ohio State's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/3 | Ohio State vs Notre Dame | -17.0W21–10 | 58.5 | W21–10 | U | N |
| Sat 9/10 | Ohio State vs Arkansas State | -44.5W45–12 | 68.5 | W45–12 | U | N |
| Sat 9/17 | Ohio State vs Toledo | -34.5W77–21 | 63.0 | W77–21 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/24 | Ohio State vs Wisconsin | -19.0W52–21 | 56.5 | W52–21 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/1 | Ohio State vs Rutgers | -39.0W49–10 | 58.0 | W49–10 | O | N |
| Sat 10/8 | Ohio State at Michigan State | -27.0W49–20 | 64.5 | W49–20 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/22 | Ohio State vs Iowa | -29.5W54–10 | 50.0 | W54–10 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/29 | Ohio State at Penn State | -15.5W44–31 | 60.5 | W44–31 | O | N |
| Sat 11/5 | Ohio State at Northwestern | -37.5W21–7 | 55.0 | W21–7 | U | N |
| Sat 11/12 | Ohio State vs Indiana | -40.0W56–14 | 62.0 | W56–14 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/19 | Ohio State at Maryland | -26.5W43–30 | 62.5 | W43–30 | O | N |
| Sat 11/26 | Ohio State vs Michigan | -9.0L23–45 | 56.0 | L23–45 | O | N |
| Sat 12/31 | Ohio State vs Georgia | +5.5L41–42 | 62.0 | L41–42 | O | Y |
Georgia 2022 Schedule
Georgia's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/3 | Georgia vs Oregon | -16.0W49–3 | 54.5 | W49–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/10 | Georgia vs Samford | -53.0W33–0 | 62.5 | W33–0 | U | N |
| Sat 9/17 | Georgia at South Carolina | -25.5W48–7 | 56.0 | W48–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/24 | Georgia vs Kent State | -45.0W39–22 | 61.5 | W39–22 | U | N |
| Sat 10/1 | Georgia at Missouri | -30.5W26–22 | 54.0 | W26–22 | U | N |
| Sat 10/8 | Georgia vs Auburn | -27.5W42–10 | 49.5 | W42–10 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/15 | Georgia vs Vanderbilt | -37.5W55–0 | 56.5 | W55–0 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/29 | Georgia vs Florida | -23.0W42–20 | 56.5 | W42–20 | O | N |
| Sat 11/5 | Georgia vs Tennessee | -9.5W27–13 | 65.5 | W27–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/12 | Georgia at Mississippi State | -16.5W45–19 | 53.0 | W45–19 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/19 | Georgia at Kentucky | -22.5W16–6 | 47.5 | W16–6 | U | N |
| Sat 11/26 | Georgia vs Georgia Tech | -36.5W37–14 | 49.0 | W37–14 | O | N |
| Sat 12/3 | Georgia vs LSU | -17.0W50–30 | 52.0 | W50–30 | O | Y |
| Sat 12/31 | Georgia vs Ohio State | -5.5W42–41 | 62.0 | W42–41 | O | N |
| Mon 1/9 | Georgia vs TCU | -13.5W65–7 | 62.0 | W65–7 | O | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2022 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2022 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Georgia Edge
Georgia +0.17
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 12 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Georgia Edge
Georgia +6.8
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.6% of games historically
Based on 13 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Georgia
3 — 1 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Ohio State
21.0 — 54.3 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Georgia won by 1
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Georgia. Teams with this edge profile have covered 50.3% historically — essentially a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Ohio State
Ryan Day #1
34–4 (90%)
· Yr 4 at school
OC
Kevin Wilson
Yr 2
#1
DC
Jim Knowles
Yr 1
#1
Georgia
Kirby Smart #1
66–15 (82%)
· Yr 7 at school
OC
Todd Monken
Yr 2
#1
DC
Will Muschamp
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓