Preseason projection — This game has not yet been played and 2022 in-season data is not yet available.
Edges are based on 2021 full-season performance.
Confidence will increase once in-season games are logged.
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
76%
LSU wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
LSU -44.5
O/U 58.0
consensus
Southern 2022 Schedule
Southern's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/10 | Southern at LSU | +44.5L17–65 | 58.0 | L17–65 | O | N |
LSU 2022 Schedule
LSU's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 9/4 | LSU vs Florida State | -4.5L23–24 | 51.0 | L23–24 | U | N |
| Sat 9/10 | LSU vs Southern | -44.5W65–17 | 58.0 | W65–17 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/17 | LSU vs Mississippi State | +3.0W31–16 | 53.0 | W31–16 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/24 | LSU vs New Mexico | -31.5W38–0 | 44.0 | W38–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/1 | LSU at Auburn | -8.0W21–17 | 44.5 | W21–17 | U | N |
| Sat 10/8 | LSU vs Tennessee | +2.5L13–40 | 63.0 | L13–40 | U | N |
| Sat 10/15 | LSU at Florida | +2.0W45–35 | 51.5 | W45–35 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/22 | LSU vs Ole Miss | +0.0W45–20 | 64.0 | W45–20 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/5 | LSU vs Alabama | +13.5W32–31 | 56.5 | W32–31 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/12 | LSU at Arkansas | -5.0W13–10 | 59.0 | W13–10 | U | N |
| Sat 11/19 | LSU vs UAB | -15.5W41–10 | 50.5 | W41–10 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/26 | LSU at Texas A&M | -10.0L23–38 | 47.5 | L23–38 | O | N |
| Sat 12/3 | LSU vs Georgia | +17.0L30–50 | 52.0 | L30–50 | O | N |
| Mon 1/2 | LSU vs Purdue | -15.0W63–7 | 54.0 | W63–7 | O | Y |
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Southern Edge
Southern +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 2021 full season · preseason estimate
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
LSU Edge
LSU +47.4
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 2021 full season · preseason estimate
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓