Sat, Sep 4 2021
·
Week 1
·
🏟 Autzen Stadium
Eugene, OR
·
Turf
·
54,000 cap
Fresno State✈ 529 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
—
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Oregon -18
O/U 62.5
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Fresno State
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Fresno State 2021 Schedule
Fresno State's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/28 | Fresno State vs UConn | -28.0W45–0 | 63.5 | W45–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/4 | Fresno State at Oregon | +18.0L24–31 | 62.5 | L24–31 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/11 | Fresno State vs Cal Poly | -32.5W63–10 | 59.5 | W63–10 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/18 | Fresno State at UCLA | +11.0W40–37 | 64.0 | W40–37 | O | Y |
| Fri 9/24 | Fresno State vs UNLV | -30.0W38–30 | 59.0 | W38–30 | O | N |
| Sat 10/2 | Fresno State at Hawai'i | -10.5L24–27 | 64.5 | L24–27 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/16 | Fresno State at Wyoming | -3.0W17–0 | 53.5 | W17–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/23 | Fresno State vs Nevada | -3.5W34–32 | 64.5 | W34–32 | O | N |
| Sat 10/30 | Fresno State at San Diego State | -2.0W30–20 | 43.5 | W30–20 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/6 | Fresno State vs Boise State | -4.0L14–40 | 61.5 | L14–40 | U | N |
| Sat 11/13 | Fresno State vs New Mexico | -24.0W34–7 | 51.0 | W34–7 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Thu 11/25 | Fresno State at San José State | -7.0W40–9 | 52.5 | W40–9 | U | Y |
| Sat 12/18 | Fresno State vs UTEP | -11.5W31–24 | 51.5 | W31–24 | O | N |
Oregon 2021 Schedule
Oregon's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | Oregon vs Fresno State | -18.0W31–24 | 62.5 | W31–24 | U | N |
| Sat 9/11 | Oregon at Ohio State | +14.5W35–28 | 65.0 | W35–28 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/18 | Oregon vs Stony Brook | -42.0W48–7 | 54.5 | W48–7 | O | N |
| Sat 9/25 | Oregon vs Arizona | -29.5W41–19 | 58.5 | W41–19 | O | N |
| Sat 10/2 | Oregon at Stanford | -8.5L24–31 | 57.5 | L24–31 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Fri 10/15 | Oregon vs California | -13.5W24–17 | 53.5 | W24–17 | U | N |
| Sat 10/23 | Oregon at UCLA | +1.0W34–31 | 62.5 | W34–31 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/30 | Oregon vs Colorado | -24.5W52–29 | 49.0 | W52–29 | O | N |
| Sat 11/6 | Oregon at Washington | -7.0W26–16 | 48.0 | W26–16 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/13 | Oregon vs Washington State | -13.0W38–24 | 58.0 | W38–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/20 | Oregon at Utah | +3.0L7–38 | 58.5 | L7–38 | U | N |
| Sat 11/27 | Oregon vs Oregon State | -7.5W38–29 | 61.5 | W38–29 | O | Y |
| Fri 12/3 | Oregon vs Utah | +3.0L10–38 | 57.5 | L10–38 | U | N |
| Wed 12/29 | Oregon vs Oklahoma | +7.0L32–47 | 64.0 | L32–47 | O | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2021 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Fresno State
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Fresno State
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Fresno State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Fresno State Edge
Fresno State +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Fresno State Edge
Fresno State +0.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Oregon
2 — 1 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Oregon
76.6 — 7.7 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Oregon won by 7
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Oregon, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Fresno State
Kalen DeBoer #1
6–4 (60%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Ryan Grubb
Yr 1
#1
DC
William Inge
Yr 1
#1
Oregon
Mario Cristobal #1
28–10 (74%)
· Yr 4 at school
OC
Joe Moorhead
Yr 1
#1
DC
Tim DeRuyter
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓