Sat, Nov 20 2021
·
Week 12
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🏟 Sanford Stadium
Athens, GA
·
Turf
·
92,746 cap
Charleston Southern✈ 202 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Georgia
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Georgia entering this game.
Momentum Control
71.6%
Georgia wins
Solid
Game Control
76%
Georgia wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Georgia -52.5
O/U 59.5
consensus
Charleston Southern 2021 Schedule
Charleston Southern's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/25 | Charleston Southern at East Carolina | +24.5L28–31 | 59.0 | L28–31 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/20 | Charleston Southern at Georgia | +52.5L7–56 | 59.5 | L7–56 | O | Y |
Georgia 2021 Schedule
Georgia's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | Georgia vs Clemson | +3.0W10–3 | 51.5 | W10–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/11 | Georgia vs UAB | -22.5W56–7 | 44.0 | W56–7 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/18 | Georgia vs South Carolina | -31.5W40–13 | 47.5 | W40–13 | O | N |
| Sat 9/25 | Georgia at Vanderbilt | -36.0W62–0 | 54.5 | W62–0 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/2 | Georgia vs Arkansas | -16.5W37–0 | 48.0 | W37–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/9 | Georgia at Auburn | -14.5W34–10 | 45.5 | W34–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/16 | Georgia vs Kentucky | -21.5W30–13 | 44.5 | W30–13 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/30 | Georgia vs Florida | -14.0W34–7 | 50.0 | W34–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/6 | Georgia vs Missouri | -40.0W43–6 | 59.0 | W43–6 | U | N |
| Sat 11/13 | Georgia at Tennessee | -19.0W41–17 | 56.0 | W41–17 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/20 | Georgia vs Charleston Southern | -52.5W56–7 | 59.5 | W56–7 | O | N |
| Sat 11/27 | Georgia at Georgia Tech | -35.5W45–0 | 54.5 | W45–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 12/4 | Georgia vs Alabama | -6.0L24–41 | 48.5 | L24–41 | O | N |
| Fri 12/31 | Georgia vs Michigan | -7.5W34–11 | 47.0 | W34–11 | U | Y |
| Mon 1/10 | Georgia vs Alabama | -3.0W33–18 | 53.5 | W33–18 | U | Y |
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Georgia Edge
Georgia +1.70
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 71.6% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Georgia Edge
Georgia +78.5
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Georgia
5 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Georgia
98.1 — 0.0 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Georgia won by 49
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Georgia with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓