Sat, Oct 2 2021
·
Week 5
·
🏟 Memorial Stadium
Lincoln, NE
·
Turf
·
86,047 cap
Northwestern✈ 474 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Northwestern
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Northwestern entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Northwestern wins
Lean
Game Control
49.4%
Northwestern wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Nebraska -11
O/U 51.5
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Nebraska
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Northwestern 2021 Schedule
Northwestern's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/3 | Northwestern vs Michigan State | -3.0L21–38 | 45.5 | L21–38 | O | N |
| Sat 9/11 | Northwestern vs Indiana State | -28.5W24–6 | 46.0 | W24–6 | U | N |
| Sat 9/18 | Northwestern at Duke | -2.5L23–30 | 50.0 | L23–30 | O | N |
| Sat 9/25 | Northwestern vs Ohio | -13.5W35–6 | 47.5 | W35–6 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/2 | Northwestern at Nebraska | +11.0L7–56 | 51.5 | L7–56 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/16 | Northwestern vs Rutgers | +2.5W21–7 | 45.0 | W21–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/23 | Northwestern at Michigan | +23.5L7–33 | 51.5 | L7–33 | U | N |
| Sat 10/30 | Northwestern vs Minnesota | +7.5L14–41 | 43.5 | L14–41 | O | N |
| Sat 11/6 | Northwestern vs Iowa | +11.5L12–17 | 40.5 | L12–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/13 | Northwestern at Wisconsin | +26.0L7–35 | 41.5 | L7–35 | O | N |
| Sat 11/20 | Northwestern vs Purdue | +11.0L14–32 | 47.5 | L14–32 | U | N |
| Sat 11/27 | Northwestern at Illinois | +7.0L14–47 | 45.0 | L14–47 | O | N |
Nebraska 2021 Schedule
Nebraska's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/28 | Nebraska at Illinois | -6.5L22–30 | 52.0 | L22–30 | U | N |
| Sat 9/4 | Nebraska vs Fordham | -42.0W52–7 | 55.0 | W52–7 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/11 | Nebraska vs Buffalo | -13.5W28–3 | 54.0 | W28–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/18 | Nebraska at Oklahoma | +22.5L16–23 | 62.5 | L16–23 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/25 | Nebraska at Michigan State | +3.5L20–23 | 55.0 | L20–23 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/2 | Nebraska vs Northwestern | -11.0W56–7 | 51.5 | W56–7 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/9 | Nebraska vs Michigan | +2.5L29–32 | 50.5 | L29–32 | O | N |
| Sat 10/16 | Nebraska at Minnesota | -4.5L23–30 | 48.5 | L23–30 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/30 | Nebraska vs Purdue | -7.5L23–28 | 54.0 | L23–28 | U | N |
| Sat 11/6 | Nebraska vs Ohio State | +14.0L17–26 | 68.5 | L17–26 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/13 | Nebraska vs SE Louisiana | -28 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/20 | Nebraska at Wisconsin | +10.0L28–35 | 43.5 | L28–35 | O | Y |
| Fri 11/26 | Nebraska vs Iowa | -1.5L21–28 | 41.0 | L21–28 | O | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2021 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Nebraska
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Nebraska
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Nebraska
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Northwestern Edge
Northwestern +0.50
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Northwestern Edge
Northwestern +0.5
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 49.4% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Nebraska
3 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Nebraska
98.5 — 1.3 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Nebraska won by 49
✗ Model missed it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Northwestern, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Northwestern
Pat Fitzgerald #1
107–83 (56%)
· Yr 16 at school
OC
Mike Bajakian
Yr 1
#1
DC
Jim O'Neil
Yr 1
#1
Nebraska
Scott Frost #1
14–22 (39%)
· Yr 4 at school
OC
Matt Lubick
Yr 1
#1
DC
Erik Chinander
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓