Matchup Prediction
Tulsa
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Tulsa entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Tulsa wins
Lean
Game Control
76%
Tulsa wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Tulsa -22
O/U 50.5
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Tulsa
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Temple 2021 Schedule
Temple's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | Temple at Rutgers | +14.0L14–61 | 52.0 | L14–61 | O | N |
| Sat 9/11 | Temple at Akron | -6.5W45–24 | 51.5 | W45–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/18 | Temple vs Boston College | +15.0L3–28 | 55.5 | L3–28 | U | N |
| Sat 9/25 | Temple vs Wagner | -36.5W41–7 | 54.5 | W41–7 | U | N |
| Sat 10/2 | Temple vs Memphis | +11.0W34–31 | 58.5 | W34–31 | O | Y |
| Fri 10/8 | Temple at Cincinnati | +30.0L3–52 | 52.5 | L3–52 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/23 | Temple at South Florida | +1.5L14–34 | 54.5 | L14–34 | U | N |
| Sat 10/30 | Temple vs UCF | +12.0L7–49 | 52.0 | L7–49 | O | N |
| Sat 11/6 | Temple at East Carolina | +15.5L3–45 | 52.0 | L3–45 | U | N |
| Sat 11/13 | Temple vs Houston | +26.0L8–37 | 52.5 | L8–37 | U | N |
| Sat 11/20 | Temple at Tulsa | +22.0L10–44 | 50.5 | L10–44 | O | N |
| Sat 11/27 | Temple vs Navy | +13.5L14–38 | 42.0 | L14–38 | O | N |
Tulsa 2021 Schedule
Tulsa's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 9/2 | Tulsa vs UC Davis | -22.0L17–19 | 54.5 | L17–19 | U | N |
| Sat 9/11 | Tulsa at Oklahoma State | +11.5L23–28 | 51.0 | L23–28 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/18 | Tulsa at Ohio State | +24.5L20–41 | 60.5 | L20–41 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/25 | Tulsa vs Arkansas State | -14.5W41–34 | 65.0 | W41–34 | O | N |
| Fri 10/1 | Tulsa vs Houston | -3.0L10–45 | 54.0 | L10–45 | O | N |
| Sat 10/9 | Tulsa vs Memphis | -3.0W35–29 | 60.5 | W35–29 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/16 | Tulsa at South Florida | -7.5W32–31 | 56.0 | W32–31 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Fri 10/29 | Tulsa vs Navy | -11.0L17–20 | 46.0 | L17–20 | U | N |
| Sat 11/6 | Tulsa at Cincinnati | +22.5L20–28 | 56.0 | L20–28 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/13 | Tulsa at Tulane | -3.0W20–13 | 55.5 | W20–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/20 | Tulsa vs Temple | -22.0W44–10 | 50.5 | W44–10 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/27 | Tulsa at SMU | +6.0W34–31 | 63.0 | W34–31 | O | Y |
| Mon 12/20 | Tulsa vs Old Dominion | -7.5W30–17 | 55.0 | W30–17 | U | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2021 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Tulsa
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Tulsa
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Tulsa
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Tulsa Edge
Tulsa +0.11
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Tulsa Edge
Tulsa +20.3
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Tulsa
4 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Tulsa
97.9 — 0.7 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Tulsa won by 34
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Tulsa with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Temple
Rod Carey #1
10–13 (44%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Mike Uremovich
Yr 1
#1
DC
Jeff Knowles
Yr 1
#1
Tulsa
Philip Montgomery #1
31–43 (42%)
· Yr 7 at school
OC
Philip Montgomery
Yr 1
#1
DC
Joseph Gillespie
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓