Bowling Green at Buffalo - 2026 Matchup Preview
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Bowling Green Falcons at Buffalo Bulls

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Saturday, October 24th 2026 (12:00 PM EDT)
UB Stadium - Amherst, NY  (Mid-American)

 
Falcons (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Eddie George (4 - 8)
Avg Score : 21 - 24 (24 - 29 on Road)
Record Prediction: 5.6 - 6.4 (#81)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 3) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 7)
BUFF 2nd straight Home Game
BUFF is playing their 8th straight game
BGSU is playing their 8th straight game
Our Line: Buffalo -4.5  (SP+ BUFF -5)

Projected Score: BGSU: 22 - BUFF: 26 (48)
BUFF Win prob: 64% | Cover: 49%
BGSU Travel: 272 miles
Bulls (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Pete Lembo (14 - 11)
Avg Score : 24 - 24 (25 - 24 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6.5 - 5.5 (#65)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 8)
 
Bowling Green's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/5Bowling Green vs Tarleton State-12.5
Sat 9/12Bowling Green at Nebraska+19
Sat 9/19Bowling Green at Iowa State+20.5
Sat 9/26Bowling Green vs South Florida+15.5
Sat 10/3Bowling Green at Miami (OH)+12.5
Sat 10/10Bowling Green vs Sacramento State+3.5
Sat 10/17Bowling Green vs Ball State-13.5
Sat 10/24Bowling Green at Buffalo+4.5
Sat 10/31Bowling Green at Western Michigan+10.5
— Bye Week —
Tue 11/10Bowling Green vs Kent State-9.5
Wed 11/18Bowling Green at Toledo+17.5
Sat 11/28Bowling Green vs Massachusetts-23.5

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 3, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 3, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 5
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Bowling Green's Schedule
Buffalo's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 9/3Buffalo vs UAlbany-14.5
Sat 9/12Buffalo at Florida International+4.5
Sat 9/19Buffalo at Penn State+25
Sat 9/26Buffalo vs Robert Morris-14.5
Sat 10/3Buffalo vs Western Michigan+3.5
Sat 10/10Buffalo at Toledo+15.5
Sat 10/17Buffalo vs Massachusetts-25.5
Sat 10/24Buffalo vs Bowling Green-4.5
— Bye Week —
Tue 11/3Buffalo at Miami (OH)+10.5
Wed 11/11Buffalo at Ball State-10.5
Wed 11/18Buffalo vs Central Michigan-0
Fri 11/27Buffalo at Akron-1.5

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 4
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 4
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Buffalo's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
BGSU#128 (.02)36% (128)20.537% (125)2.88 (78)15635% (124)1513.19 (118)#61 (.15)41% (56)24.339% (40)42% (68)3.44 (48)611.21.3
BUFF#116 (.07)39% (109)2439% (108)2.68 (115)13339% (104)2293.5 (91)#49 (.12)39% (35)23.539% (27)40% (47)3.07 (21)45.71.81.3
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
BGSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
BUFF0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
BGSU Offense1220.52435.6%3.191.217307156151458%40%37%35%16%.02
BUFF Defense1223.524.139.1%3.071.3 - - - - - 55%43%39%40%15%.12
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
BGSU Defense1224.32940.6%3.441.3 - - - - - 53%46%39%42%19%.15
BUFF Offense122424.638.8%3.51.8193621332293.945%53%39%39%16%.07

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Bowling Green1231:1816.637%42%6.7611.21.36.21.8131
Buffalo1228:0319.436%40%5.445.71.81.36.12.8129.5
Run Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
BGSU Offense1258% (15)37% (125)39.3155.5413 (119).03 (112)2.88 (78)58% (133)10% (95)0.95 (76)
BUFF Defense1255% (124)39% (27) - - - - .05 (38)2.96 (79)66% (30)10% (52)0.89 (34)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
BGSU Defense1253% (105)39% (40) - - - - .06 (48)2.74 (40)59% (9)13% (8)1.06 (116)
BUFF Offense1245% (105)39% (108)34.4133.23.915 (70)-.03 (128)2.68 (115)69% (93)9% (65)0.88 (108)

Pass Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
BGSU Offense1240% (122)35% (124)13.823.8151.36.410.913 (106)12 (119).07 (129)1.6 (47)34% (110)25% (121).19 (114)6% (65)2.1 (50)
BUFF Defense1243% (11)40% (47) - - - - - - 7 (123).23 (61)1.6 (98)32% (51)28% (36).17 (18)5% (95)1.7 (4)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
BGSU Defense1246% (34)42% (68) - - - - - - 6 (75).28 (82)1.6 (95)33% (49)31% (86).32 (79)7% (43)2.1 (85)
BUFF Offense1253% (31)39% (104)19.634.32296.711.719 (75)14 (34).19 (103)1.5 (101)34% (112)27% (108).28 (76)7% (104)2 (76)

Bowling Green's Power Ratings
Bowling Green's Power Rating: -9.74  #113
Bowling Green's Offense Rating: 10.94  #107
Bowling Green's Defense Rating: 20.68  #117
2026 Talent Rating: 487.00  #102
Blue Chip Ratio: 0%  #104
Bowling Green's 2026 Expected Record: 5.6 - 6.4
Bowling Green's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: -12.6  #114
Bowling Green's Offense SP+ Rating: 15.4  #128
Bowling Green's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.8  #83

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 467.85
Average Power Five Talent: 871.03
Average FBS Talent: 676.61

Power Ratings Matchup
Bowling Green: -9.74   Buffalo: -6.64

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Bowling Green: -12.6   Buffalo: -7.5




Buffalo's Power Ratings
Buffalo's Power Rating: -6.64  #117
Buffalo's Offense Rating: 7.55  #124
Buffalo's Defense Rating: 18.34  #104
2026 Talent Rating: 495.00  #100
Blue Chip Ratio: 0  #104
Buffalo's 2026 Expected Record: 6.5 - 5.5
Buffalo's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: -7.5  #97
Buffalo's Offense SP+ Rating: 18.2  #118
Buffalo's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.4  #70

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 467.85
Average Power Five Talent: 871.03
Average FBS Talent: 676.61


Bowling Green Scoring
Offense: 20.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 24
Defense: 24.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 29

Bowling Green's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Buffalo 26
Bowling Green 22


Projected Total Points: 48
Buffalo Scoring
Offense: 24 PPG
Offense at Home: 24.6
Defense: 23.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 24.1

Buffalo's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202511/01Bowling Green3Buffalo28Bowling Green -2.5Buffalo44.5Under
202310/14Buffalo14Bowling Green24Buffalo -3Bowling Green44.5Under
202210/08Bowling Green7Buffalo38Buffalo -2Buffalo55.5Under
202110/30Buffalo44Bowling Green56Buffalo -13.5Bowling Green51.5Over
202011/17Bowling Green17Buffalo42Buffalo -31.5Bowling Green57.5Over
201911/29Buffalo49Bowling Green7Buffalo -28Buffalo53.5Over
201811/23Bowling Green14Buffalo44Buffalo -16Buffalo62.0Under
201711/07Buffalo38Bowling Green28Buffalo -7Buffalo61.0Over
201611/25Bowling Green27Buffalo19Bowling Green -11Buffalo60.0Under
201510/03Buffalo22Bowling Green28Bowling Green -6.5Buffalo67.5Under
201410/04Bowling Green36Buffalo35Bowling Green -5Buffalo0
201311/29Buffalo7Bowling Green24Bowling Green -3.5Bowling Green52.0Under
201211/23Bowling Green21Buffalo7
201111/25Buffalo28Bowling Green42
201010/02Bowling Green26Buffalo28
200911/03Buffalo29Bowling Green30
200811/21Bowling Green34Buffalo40
200711/17Buffalo17Bowling Green31
200609/09Bowling Green48Buffalo40
200510/15Buffalo7Bowling Green27
200109/08Bowling Green35Buffalo0
200009/22Buffalo20Bowling Green17
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Buffalo984 Overs
Bowling Green1347 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams8 - 144 - 82 - 52 - 3
Road Teams14 - 88 - 43 - 25 - 2

(#113) BGSU at (#117) BUFF
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatBGSUBUFF
Game ControlGC #113 #101
Momentum ControlMC #83 #55
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #113 #117
SP+SP+ #114 #97
Perf GradeGradeNRNR
OffenseOffNRNR
DefenseDefNRNR
Spec TeamsSTNRNR
TalentTal #102 #100
Blue ChipsBC% #104 #104
Bowling Green Notes
(3/4) Vibes: Hopeful, George popular, can bowl TY
(3/4) QB Novosad a huge get, big talent for MAC QB
(3/4) RB duo of Dendy & Baldwin (FCS) looks decent
(3/4) WR really need FCS portals or depth to hit
(3/4) OL looks rough, only 2 with PT exp. Some depth
(3/4) DL has some exp, has size. DE's can rush some
(3/4) DBs look strong, even better if FCS portals hit
Bowling Green Injury Report
Buffalo Notes
(3/4) Vibes: Lembo won 9 in '24, but regressed LY
(3/4) QB Holmes (D II) 3K yds, 24 TD, 240 rushing
(3/4) RB Shelton (#2 LY) some exp, Enlow (Fr) ready?
(3/4) WR Gathings (#2 LY) good, some exp, big guys
(3/4) OL is ?, 2 starters, 1 PT and 4 portal adds
(3/4) F7 lost most from good Def LY, only 6 portals
(3/4) DL is light on exp, size, talent. LB a little better
(3/4) CB looks really strong, Greer a good S. Good unit
Buffalo Injury Report
Bowling Green on Offense
Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 40%
CategoryCat
BGSU OffBUFF Def
Game ControlGC #120 #91
Momentum ControlMC #114 #23
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #128 #35
ExplosiveExp #82 #56
PPAPPA #128 #49
PowerPwr #107 #104
SP+SP+ #128 #70
Pts POPPO #118 #21
HavocHav #80 #75
Bowling Green Run Game
Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 40%
CategoryCat
BGSU OffBUFF Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #125 #27
Run ExplRExp #76 #34
PPAExp #112 #38
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #78 #79
Stuff RateStuff #66 #94
TackleTak - NR
Bowling Green Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 40%
CategoryCat
BGSU OffBUFF Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #124 #47
Pass ExplPExl #47 #98
PPAExp #129 #61
Pass Rush/BlockP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #95 #52
DB HavocDB #65 #95
Buffalo on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 45%
CategoryCatBUFF OffBGSU Def
Game ControlGC #106 #111
Momentum ControlMC #98 #72
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #109 #56
ExplosiveExp #104 #105
PPAPPA #116 #61
PowerPwr #124 #117
SP+SP+ #118 #83
Pts POPPO #91 #48
HavocHav #87 #12
Buffalo Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat
BUFF OffBGSU Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #108 #40
Run ExplRExp #108 #116
PPAExp #128 #48
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #115 #40
Stuff RateStuff #68 #8
TackleTak - NR
Buffalo Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 45%
CategoryCatBUFF OffBGSU Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #104 #68
Pass ExplPExl #101 #95
PPAExp #103 #82
Pass Block/RushP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #65 #8
DB HavocDB #104 #43
Program Comparison
BUFF 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average G5
'26 Profile: Remains Average G5

BGSU 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg G5
'26 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in UB Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Previous Matchups
Buffalo beat Bowling Green last year (28-3)
Bowling Green beat Buffalo in 2023 (24-14)

  
BGSU's OC Greg Nosal (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Hunter Najm336650%473547.2
Austin Novosad (Tr)1250%400020.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Ke'Marion Baldwin (Tr)15977864.989
Austyn Dendy10849354.624
Isaiah Dawson (Tr)11136112.442
Nakai Amachree72203.111
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Isaiah Dawson (Tr)42575413.767
Nicholas Sowell21247111.826
Brennan Ridley4110127.587
Austyn Dendy464116.027

View Bowling Green's Full Roster

BGSU's DC Brandon Fisher (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kal-El Pascal804005
Armahn Hale (Tr)444001
Preston EstoEsta291001
Dorian Pringle276100
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Myles Bradley206570
Eriq George265420
Andrew Hines III224110
Dorian Pringle276100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
JoJo Johnson2200013
Kal-El Pascal804005
Nick Sawyer (Tr)30002

BUFF's OC Tony Tokarz (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Terrance Shelton Jr.5724414.320
James McNeil Jr.126725.626
Jason Wright144503.29
Messiah Burch114103.714
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jasaiah Gathings36410311.439
Trevor Wilson (Tr)2219318.830
Chance Morrow8129216.126
Patrick Clacks III127125.911

View Buffalo's Full Roster

BUFF's DC Joe Bowen (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Miles Greer743313
Saveon Brown527224
Keontez Bradley280004
Kobi Blackwell200007
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Miles Greer743313
Saveon Brown527224
Cornell Evans142111
Messiah Burch10000
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kobi Blackwell200007
Keontez Bradley280004
Saveon Brown527224