Sat, Oct 3 2026
·
Week 5
·
🏟 UB Stadium
Amherst, NY
·
Turf
·
29,013 cap
Western Michigan✈ 350 miSame TZ
Preseason projection — This game has not yet been played and 2026 in-season data is not yet available.
Edges are based on 2025 full-season performance.
Confidence will increase once in-season games are logged.
Matchup Prediction
Western Michigan
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Western Michigan entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Western Michigan wins
Lean
Game Control
64.9%
Western Michigan wins
Lean
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Western Michigan
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Western Michigan 2026 Schedule
Western Michigan's 2026 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/5 | Western Michigan at Michigan | +21 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/12 | Western Michigan vs Monmouth | -20 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/19 | Western Michigan at Rice | -10 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/26 | Western Michigan vs Boise State | +4 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/3 | Western Michigan at Buffalo | -3.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/10 | Western Michigan vs Kent State | -17 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/17 | Western Michigan at Central Michigan | -1 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/24 | Western Michigan at Toledo | +10 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/31 | Western Michigan vs Bowling Green | -10.5 | — | — | — | — |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Tue 11/10 | Western Michigan at Akron | -7 | — | — | — | — |
| Tue 11/17 | Western Michigan vs Eastern Michigan | -11 | — | — | — | — |
| Tue 11/24 | Western Michigan vs Miami (OH) | -0.5 | — | — | — | — |
Buffalo 2026 Schedule
Buffalo's 2026 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 9/3 | Buffalo vs UAlbany | -14.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/12 | Buffalo at Florida International | +4.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/19 | Buffalo at Penn State | +25 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/26 | Buffalo vs Robert Morris | -14.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/3 | Buffalo vs Western Michigan | +3.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/10 | Buffalo at Toledo | +15.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/17 | Buffalo vs Massachusetts | -25.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/24 | Buffalo vs Bowling Green | -4.5 | — | — | — | — |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Tue 11/3 | Buffalo at Miami (OH) | +10.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Wed 11/11 | Buffalo at Ball State | -10.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Wed 11/18 | Buffalo vs Central Michigan | -0 | — | — | — | — |
| Fri 11/27 | Buffalo at Akron | -1.5 | — | — | — | — |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2025 season (prior year)
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Western Michigan
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Western Michigan
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Western Michigan
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season (prior year — 2026 data not yet available) ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Western Michigan Edge
Western Michigan +0.38
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 2025 full season · preseason estimate
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Western Michigan Edge
Western Michigan +13.7
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 64.9% of games historically
Based on 2025 full season · preseason estimate
Coaching Matchup
Western Michigan
Lance Taylor #110
20–19 (51%)
· Yr 4 at school
OC
Walt Bell
Yr 3
#116
DC
Greer Martini
Yr 1
#68
Buffalo
Pete Lembo #74
14–11 (56%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Tony Tokarz
Yr 1
#67
DC
Joe Bowen
Yr 3
#58
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓