Sat, Sep 26 2026
·
Week 4
·
🏟 UB Stadium
Amherst, NY
·
Turf
·
29,013 cap
Robert Morris✈ 186 miSame TZ
Preseason projection — This game has not yet been played and 2026 in-season data is not yet available.
Edges are based on 2025 full-season performance.
Confidence will increase once in-season games are logged.
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
76%
Buffalo wins
Strong
Robert Morris 2026 Schedule
Robert Morris's 2026 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/12 | Robert Morris at Akron | -10.5 | — | — | — | — |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/26 | Robert Morris at Buffalo | -6.5 | — | — | — | — |
Buffalo 2026 Schedule
Buffalo's 2026 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 9/3 | Buffalo vs UAlbany | -14.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/12 | Buffalo at Florida International | +4.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/19 | Buffalo at Penn State | +25 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/26 | Buffalo vs Robert Morris | -14.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/3 | Buffalo vs Western Michigan | +3.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/10 | Buffalo at Toledo | +15.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/17 | Buffalo vs Massachusetts | -25.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/24 | Buffalo vs Bowling Green | -4.5 | — | — | — | — |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Tue 11/3 | Buffalo at Miami (OH) | +10.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Wed 11/11 | Buffalo at Ball State | -10.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Wed 11/18 | Buffalo vs Central Michigan | -0 | — | — | — | — |
| Fri 11/27 | Buffalo at Akron | -1.5 | — | — | — | — |
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Robert Morris Edge
Robert Morris +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 2025 full season · preseason estimate
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Buffalo Edge
Buffalo +34.8
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 2025 full season · preseason estimate
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓