Buffalo at Toledo - 2026 Matchup Preview
Buffalo logo

Buffalo Bulls at Toledo Rockets

Toledo logo
Saturday, October 10th 2026 (12:00 PM EDT)
Glass Bowl - Toledo, OH  (Mid-American)

 
Bulls (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Pete Lembo (14 - 11)
Avg Score : 24 - 24 (23 - 23 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6.5 - 5.5 (#65)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 8)
TOL is playing their 6th straight game
BUFF is playing their 6th straight game
Our Line: Toledo -8  (SP+ TOL -0)

Projected Score: BUFF: 20 - TOL: 28 (48)
TOL Win prob: 74% | Cover: 48%
BUFF Travel: 264 miles
Rockets (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Mike Jacobs (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 31 - 13 (46 - 8 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9.9 - 2.1 (#8)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 10)
 
Buffalo's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 9/3Buffalo vs UAlbany-12
Sat 9/12Buffalo at Florida International+5
Sat 9/19Buffalo at Penn State+26
Sat 9/26Buffalo vs Robert Morris-12
Sat 10/3Buffalo vs Western Michigan+2.5
Sat 10/10Buffalo at Toledo+8
Sat 10/17Buffalo vs Massachusetts-20.5
Sat 10/24Buffalo vs Bowling Green-2.5
— Bye Week —
Tue 11/3Buffalo at Miami (OH)+12.5
Wed 11/11Buffalo at Ball State-9.5
Wed 11/18Buffalo vs Central Michigan+0
Fri 11/27Buffalo at Akron-1.5

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 4
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 4
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Buffalo's Schedule
Toledo's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/5Toledo at Michigan State+7.5
Sat 9/12Toledo vs Central Connecticut-17.5
Sat 9/19Toledo vs Temple-3
Sat 9/26Toledo vs San Diego State+4
Sat 10/3Toledo at Ball State-15
Sat 10/10Toledo vs Buffalo-8
Sat 10/17Toledo at Eastern Michigan-3.5
Sat 10/24Toledo vs Western Michigan-3
— Bye Week —
Wed 11/4Toledo at Sacramento State-9
Wed 11/11Toledo vs Massachusetts-26
Wed 11/18Toledo vs Bowling Green-8
Fri 11/27Toledo at Ohio-3.5

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 6
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Toledo's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
BUFF#116 (.07)39% (109)2439% (108)2.68 (115)13339% (104)2293.5 (91)#49 (.12)39% (35)23.539% (27)40% (47)3.07 (21)45.71.81.3
TOL#63 (.18)44% (53)30.843% (70)2.91 (73)17844% (40)2383.86 (55)#2 (-.07)33% (4)13.339% (29)28% (1)2.45 (4)74.61.21.6
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
BUFF0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
TOL0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
BUFF Offense122423.238.8%3.51.8193621332293.945%53%39%39%16%.07
TOL Defense1313.37.733.3%2.451.6 - - - - - 52%45%39%28%20%-.07
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
BUFF Defense1223.522.639.1%3.071.3 - - - - - 55%43%39%40%15%.12
TOL Offense1330.845.843.6%3.861.2214161782384.949%49%43%44%13%.18

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Buffalo1228:0319.436%40%5.445.71.81.36.12.8129.5
Toledo1330:2621.240%24%8.574.61.21.67.12.8331.2
Run Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
BUFF Offense1245% (105)39% (108)34.4133.23.915 (70)-.03 (128)2.68 (115)69% (93)9% (65)0.88 (108)
TOL Defense1352% (98)39% (29) - - - - -.01 (13)2.36 (7)67% (39)13% (7)0.87 (22)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
BUFF Defense1255% (124)39% (27) - - - - .05 (38)2.96 (79)66% (30)10% (52)0.89 (34)
TOL Offense1349% (69)43% (70)36.2177.74.922 (40).12 (64)2.91 (73)78% (27)9% (53)0.9 (95)

Pass Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
BUFF Offense1253% (31)39% (104)19.634.32296.711.719 (75)14 (34).19 (103)1.5 (101)34% (112)27% (108).28 (76)7% (104)2 (76)
TOL Defense1345% (30)28% (1) - - - - - - 13 (55)-.08 (1)1.6 (108)35% (22)19% (1)-.01 (1)7% (15)2.2 (124)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
BUFF Defense1243% (11)40% (47) - - - - - - 7 (123).23 (61)1.6 (98)32% (51)28% (36).17 (18)5% (95)1.7 (4)
TOL Offense1349% (66)44% (40)19.730.7238.17.812.127 (22)10 (60).28 (55)1.6 (62)32% (71)29% (79).2 (112)4% (11)1.9 (115)

Buffalo's Power Ratings
Buffalo's Power Rating: -10.77  #116
Buffalo's Offense Rating: 7.55  #124
Buffalo's Defense Rating: 18.32  #103
2026 Talent Rating: 495.00  #100
Blue Chip Ratio: 0%  #104
Buffalo's 2026 Expected Record: 6.5 - 5.5
Buffalo's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: -11.9  #110
Buffalo's Offense SP+ Rating: 15.7  #126
Buffalo's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.1  #85

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 467.85
Average Power Five Talent: 872.28
Average FBS Talent: 677.28

Power Ratings Matchup
Buffalo: -10.77   Toledo: -3.31

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Buffalo: -11.9   Toledo: -11.5




Toledo's Power Ratings
Toledo's Power Rating: -3.31  #70
Toledo's Offense Rating: 14.74  #80
Toledo's Defense Rating: 14.86  #62
2026 Talent Rating: 544.00  #93
Blue Chip Ratio: 1  #83
Toledo's 2026 Expected Record: 9.9 - 2.1
Toledo's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: -11.5  #108
Toledo's Offense SP+ Rating: 16.7  #121
Toledo's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.9  #84

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 467.85
Average Power Five Talent: 872.28
Average FBS Talent: 677.28


Buffalo Scoring
Offense: 24 PPG
Offense on Road: 23.2
Defense: 23.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 22.6

Buffalo's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Toledo 28
Buffalo 20


Projected Total Points: 48
Toledo Scoring
Offense: 30.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 45.8
Defense: 13.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 7.7

Toledo's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202410/12Buffalo30Toledo15Toledo -10.5Buffalo44.5Over
202310/31Toledo31Buffalo13Toledo -14Toledo47.0Under
202210/22Buffalo34Toledo27Toledo -7.0Buffalo56.0Over
201911/20Buffalo49Toledo30Buffalo -9.5Buffalo55.0Over
201810/20Toledo17Buffalo31Toledo -3Buffalo63.0Under
201311/12Toledo51Buffalo41Toledo -3.5Toledo0
201210/27Buffalo20Toledo25
200710/13Buffalo43Toledo33
200510/22Toledo38Buffalo15
200311/01Toledo56Buffalo29
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Toledo523 Overs
Buffalo542 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams8 - 25 - 13 - 12 - 0
Road Teams2 - 81 - 50 - 21 - 3

(#116) BUFF at (#70) TOL
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatBUFFTOL
Game ControlGC #101 #69
Momentum ControlMC #55 #22
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #116 #70
SP+SP+ #110 #108
Perf GradeGradeNRNR
OffenseOffNRNR
DefenseDefNRNR
Spec TeamsSTNRNR
TalentTal #100 #93
Blue ChipsBC% #104 #83
Buffalo Notes
(3/4) Vibes: Lembo won 9 in '24, but regressed LY
(3/4) QB Holmes (D II) 3K yds, 24 TD, 240 rushing
(3/4) RB Shelton (#2 LY) some exp, Enlow (Fr) ready?
(3/4) WR Gathings (#2 LY) good, some exp, big guys
(3/4) OL is ?, 2 starters, 1 PT and 4 portal adds
(3/4) F7 lost most from good Def LY, only 6 portals
(3/4) DL is light on exp, size, talent. LB a little better
(3/4) CB looks really strong, Greer a good S. Good unit
Buffalo Injury Report
Toledo Notes
(2/6) HC Jacobs (Mercer) is 94-23 as a head coach
(2/6) OC Reisert was HC @ Gard Webb, DC from Mercer
(2/6) QB Khamoni Robinson from Lenoir-Rhyne as QB1?
(2/6) Jacobs brought 13 portals from Mercer w him
(2/6) RB CJ Miller (Mer) exp'd, there's depth here
(2/6) WR has parts, Dabbs (Mer) really productive
(2/6) OL has 6 w good exp & prod, 3 are FCS portals
(2/6) DTs light and inexp'd. DEs have played, but ?
(2/6) LB corp looks good, although depth is green
(2/6) DBs no clue, top 2 are FCS, not much exp after
Toledo Injury Report
Buffalo on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat
BUFF OffTOL Def
Game ControlGC #106 #31
Momentum ControlMC #98 #16
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #109 #4
ExplosiveExp #104 #22
PPAPPA #116 #2
PowerPwr #124 #62
SP+SP+ #126 #84
Pts POPPO #91 #4
HavocHav #87 #5
Buffalo Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat
BUFF OffTOL Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #108 #29
Run ExplRExp #108 #22
PPAExp #128 #13
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #115 #7
Stuff RateStuff #68 #27
TackleTak - NR
Buffalo Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat
BUFF OffTOL Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #104 #1
Pass ExplPExl #101 #108
PPAExp #103 #1
Pass Rush/BlockP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #65 #7
DB HavocDB #104 #15
Toledo on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 49%
CategoryCatTOL OffBUFF Def
Game ControlGC #100 #91
Momentum ControlMC #41 #23
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #53 #35
ExplosiveExp #76 #56
PPAPPA #63 #49
PowerPwr #80 #103
SP+SP+ #121 #85
Pts POPPO #55 #21
HavocHav #22 #75
Toledo Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat
TOL OffBUFF Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #70 #27
Run ExplRExp #95 #34
PPAExp #64 #38
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #73 #79
Stuff RateStuff #86 #94
TackleTak - NR
Toledo Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 49%
CategoryCatTOL OffBUFF Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #40 #47
Pass ExplPExl #62 #98
PPAExp #55 #61
Pass Block/RushP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #53 #52
DB HavocDB #11 #95
Program Comparison
TOL 5 Year Profile: Declining Top G5
'26 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

BUFF 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg G5
'26 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Glass Bowl
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Previous Matchups
Buffalo beat Toledo in 2024 (30-15)
Toledo beat Buffalo in 2023 (31-13)

  
BUFF's OC Tony Tokarz (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Terrance Shelton Jr.5724414.320
James McNeil Jr.126725.626
Jason Wright144503.29
Messiah Burch114103.714
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jasaiah Gathings36410311.439
Trevor Wilson (Tr)2219318.830
Chance Morrow8129216.126
Patrick Clacks III127125.911

View Buffalo's Full Roster

BUFF's DC Joe Bowen (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Miles Greer743313
Saveon Brown527224
Keontez Bradley280004
Kobi Blackwell200007
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Miles Greer743313
Saveon Brown527224
Cornell Evans142111
Messiah Burch10000
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kobi Blackwell200007
Keontez Bradley280004
Saveon Brown527224

TOL's OC Cris Reisert (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
John Alan Richter172568%153316.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
CJ Miller (Tr)168953145.779
Connor Walendzak329903.111
Michael Drennen II96006.715
Dane Nauman94004.412
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Adjatay Dabbs (Tr)45856819.084
Kalvin Gilbert46653714.265
CJ Miller (Tr)26314312.159
Peyton Strickland2422649.465

View Toledo's Full Roster

TOL's DC Jahmal Brown (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Armorion Smith (Tr)362001
Langston Long335000
Ezra Odinjor (Tr)283121
Nicholas Thompson242100
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ezra Odinjor (Tr)283121
Nicholas Thompson242100
Isaac Prince53100
Armorion Smith (Tr)362001
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Armorion Smith (Tr)362001
Dylan Hohler71011
Donovan Watkins (Tr)20001