Massachusetts at Sacramento State - 2026 Matchup Preview
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Massachusetts Minutemen at Sacramento State Hornets

Sacramento State logo
Saturday, September 26th 2026 (12:00 PM EDT)
Hornet Stadium - Sacramento, CA  (Mid-American)

 
Minutemen (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Joe Harasymiak (0 - 12)
Avg Score : 11 - 39 (9 - 43 on Road)
Record Prediction: 1.3 - 10.7 (#117)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 9)
SAC 2nd straight Home Game
SAC is playing their 4th straight game
UMASS is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Sacramento State -14.5  (SP+ SAC -8)
Projected Score: UMASS: 15 - SAC: 29 (44)
SAC Win prob: 85% | Cover: 47%
UMASS Travel: 2548 miles, 3 hrs ahead
Hornets (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Alonzo Carter (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 17 - 20 (17 - 20 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 7.1 - 4.9 (#50)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 9)
 
Massachusetts's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 9/3Massachusetts at Rutgers+29.5————
Sat 9/12Massachusetts vs Sacred Heart+6————
Sat 9/19Massachusetts vs Stonehill+6————
Sat 9/26Massachusetts at Sacramento State+14.5————
Sat 10/3Massachusetts vs Eastern Michigan+15————
Sat 10/10Massachusetts vs Miami (OH)+25.5————
Sat 10/17Massachusetts at Buffalo+20.5————
Sat 10/24Massachusetts at UConn+24.5————
— Bye Week —
Wed 11/4Massachusetts vs Ball State+3.5————
Wed 11/11Massachusetts at Toledo+26————
Wed 11/18Massachusetts vs Akron+11.5————
Sat 11/28Massachusetts at Bowling Green+20.5————
Record: 0–0Projected spreads in italics

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 6
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Massachusetts's Schedule
Sacramento State's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/29Sacramento State at Eastern Michigan+8————
Sat 9/5Sacramento State vs Mississippi Valley State-6————
Sat 9/12Sacramento State at Fresno State+20————
Sat 9/19Sacramento State vs North Dakota State+14.5————
Sat 9/26Sacramento State vs Massachusetts-14.5————
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/10Sacramento State at Bowling Green+8————
Sat 10/17Sacramento State vs Ohio+3————
Sat 10/24Sacramento State at Ball State-3.5————
Fri 10/30Sacramento State vs Kent State-3.5————
Wed 11/4Sacramento State vs Toledo+9————
Wed 11/11Sacramento State at Central Michigan+11————
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/28Sacramento State at Hawai'i+16.5————
Record: 0–0Projected spreads in italics

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 4, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 4, Poor 5
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Sacramento State's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UMASS#135 (-.01)34% (134)11.133% (136)2.05 (136)8234% (129)1652.17 (136)#133 (.28)48% (130)38.649% (129)48% (129)4.64 (134)41.41.30.8
SAC0%170%000%000%200%0%0000
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
UMASS0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
SAC0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UMASS Offense1211.19.333.7%2.171.316248821652.845%54%33%34%20%-.01
SAC Defense120200%00 - - - - - 0%0%0%0%0%
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
UMASS Defense1238.642.548%4.640.8 - - - - - 55%43%49%48%9%.28
SAC Offense117170%00000000%0%0%0%0%

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Massachusetts1226:5615.531%23%5.241.41.30.83.31.1125.9
Sacramento State10:000NAN%0%0000000100
Run Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UMASS Offense1245% (108)33% (136)29.382.42.86 (122)-.03 (129)2.05 (136)60% (127)13% (127)1.12 (12)
SAC Defense10%0% - - - - 00%0%0
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
UMASS Defense1255% (126)49% (129) - - - - .2 (121)3.53 (136)77% (106)6% (136)0.84 (14)
SAC Offense10%0%000000%0%0

Pass Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UMASS Offense1254% (26)34% (129)18.634.6165.14.88.98 (134)9 (88).02 (132)1.3 (135)38% (135)25% (119).14 (126)7% (110)2 (70)
SAC Defense10%0% - - - - - - 000%0%0%0
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
UMASS Defense1243% (12)48% (129) - - - - - - 4 (75).41 (128)1.6 (103)26% (134)33% (105).42 (120)3% (136)2 (76)
SAC Offense10%0%000000000%0%0%0

Massachusetts's Power Ratings
Massachusetts's Power Rating: -27.79  #138
Massachusetts's Offense Rating: 1.10  #138
Massachusetts's Defense Rating: 29.13  #138
2026 Talent Rating: 354.00  #130
Blue Chip Ratio: 3%  #69
Massachusetts's 2026 Expected Record: 1.3 - 10.7
Massachusetts's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: -30.9  #137
Massachusetts's Offense SP+ Rating: 9.6  #138
Massachusetts's Defense SP+ Rating: 40.1  #136

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 467.85
Average Power Five Talent: 872.28
Average FBS Talent: 677.28

Power Ratings Matchup
Massachusetts: -27.79   Sacramento State: -14.76

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Massachusetts: -30.9   Sacramento State: -22.7




Sacramento State's Power Ratings
Sacramento State's Power Rating: -14.76  #119
Sacramento State's Offense Rating: 8.69  #118
Sacramento State's Defense Rating: 20.51  #114
2026 Talent Rating: 437.00  #119
Blue Chip Ratio: 1  #83
Sacramento State's 2026 Expected Record: 7.1 - 4.9
Sacramento State's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: -22.7  #130
Sacramento State's Offense SP+ Rating: 15.1  #127
Sacramento State's Defense SP+ Rating: 37.9  #130

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 467.85
Average Power Five Talent: 872.28
Average FBS Talent: 677.28


Massachusetts Scoring
Offense: 11.1 PPG
Offense on Road: 9.3
Defense: 38.6 PPG
Defense on Road: 42.5

Massachusetts's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Sacramento State 29
Massachusetts 15

Projected Total Points: 44
Sacramento State Scoring
Offense: 17 PPG
Offense at Home: 17
Defense: 20 PPG
Defense at Home: 20

Sacramento State's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Sacramento State000 Overs
Massachusetts000 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams0 - 00 - 00 - 00 - 0
Road Teams0 - 00 - 00 - 00 - 0

(#138) UMASS at (#119) SAC
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatUMASSSAC
Game ControlGC #136 #12
Momentum ControlMC #124NR
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #138 #119
SP+SP+ #137 #130
Perf GradeGradeNRNR
OffenseOffNRNR
DefenseDefNRNR
Spec TeamsSTNRNR
TalentTal #130 #119
Blue ChipsBC% #69 #83
Massachusetts Notes
(2/27) Vibes: Why bother. School deserves better
(2/27) 8 wins in 7 years (8-68), should not be FBS
(2/27) QB Watson (VT) vs Johnson (FAMU)... meh
(2/27) RB a stable of longshots with 2 portal adds
(2/27) WR could have upside w King (FCS), Matthews
(2/27) OL 6 w starting exp, 2 from FCS. Better than exp
(2/27) DL severely lacks size, talent. Have bros from IU?
(2/27) LB best unit on team, by far. 3 good starters
(2/27) DBs will be bad, likely really bad.
Massachusetts Injury Report
Sacramento State Notes
(2/15) 2025: (7-5), '24: (3-9), '23: (8-5), '22: (12-1)
(2/15) Lost top 2 QB, 3 RB, 1 WR from '25 via portal
(2/15) HC Carter was RB coach @ Arizona past 2 years
Sacramento State Injury Report
Massachusetts on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat
UMASS OffSAC Def
Game ControlGC #136 #12
Momentum ControlMC #135NR
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #134NR
ExplosiveExp #78NR
PPAPPA #135NR
PowerPwr #138 #114
SP+SP+ #138 #130
Pts POPPO #136NR
HavocHav #131NR
Massachusetts Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat
UMASS OffSAC Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #136NR
Run ExplRExp #12NR
PPAExp #129NR
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #136NR
Stuff RateStuff #136NR
TackleTak - NR
Massachusetts Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 54%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat
UMASS OffSAC Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #129NR
Pass ExplPExl #135NR
PPAExp #132NR
Pass Rush/BlockP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #127NR
DB HavocDB #110NR
Sacramento State on Offense
CategoryCatSAC OffUMASS Def
Game ControlGC #16 #136
Momentum ControlMCNR #117
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSucNR #130
ExplosiveExpNR #24
PPAPPANR #133
PowerPwr #118 #138
SP+SP+ #127 #136
Pts POPPONR #134
HavocHavNR #136
Sacramento State Run Game
CategoryCat
SAC OffUMASS Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSucNR #129
Run ExplRExpNR #14
PPAExpNR #121
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLYNR #136
Stuff RateStuffNR #136
TackleTak - NR
Sacramento State Pass Game
CategoryCatSAC OffUMASS Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSucNR #129
Pass ExplPExlNR #103
PPAExpNR #128
Pass Block/RushP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7NR #136
DB HavocDBNR #136
Program Comparison
SAC 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'26 Profile: Remains Poor G5

UMASS 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'26 Profile: Remains Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Hornet Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
No Matchups Past 4 Years
  
UMASS's OC Max Warner (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
RJ Johnson III (Tr)17626566%21861648.2
William Watson III (Tr)2450%770019.3
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jordan Washington (Tr)8634034.024
Justin Williams-Thomas (Tr)3519725.637
RJ Johnson III (Tr)5713932.426
Elijah Faulkner4011402.914
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Randall King (Tr)59689511.777
Devin Matthews (Tr)36649718.059
Jordan Washington (Tr)2220219.260
Max Dowling20199310.077

View Massachusetts's Full Roster

UMASS's DC Jared Keyte (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Tyler Martin973002
Zeraun Daniel753002
Timmy Hinspeter694222
Kendall Bournes582000
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Timmy Hinspeter694222
William Depaepe (Tr)21100
Tyler Martin973002
Kezion Dia-Johnson30000
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jahmad Harmon (Tr)242005
Tyler Martin973002
Timmy Hinspeter694222

SAC's OC Eric Kiesau (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Carson Conklin (Tr)479649%354123.7
Savion Red11100%280028.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Davion Godley (Tr)9451245.452
Sam Adams II3618135.034
Savion Red125804.813
Cincere Rhaney (Tr)51903.88
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jordan Williams11170115.526
Sam Adams II9134214.933
Matthew Coleman (Tr)2013116.613
Jace Wilson356018.745

View Sacramento State's Full Roster

SAC's DC Adam Clark (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dionte Thornton (Tr)100002
Tim Thomas (Tr)60000
Boogsie Silvera (Tr)50000
Deven Wright51000
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dionte Thornton (Tr)100002
Tim Thomas (Tr)60000
Boogsie Silvera (Tr)50000
Deven Wright51000
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Dionte Thornton (Tr)100002
Tim Thomas (Tr)60000
Boogsie Silvera (Tr)50000