Sacramento State at Fresno State - 2026 Matchup Preview

Sacramento State Hornets at Fresno State Bulldogs

Saturday, September 12th 2026 (12:00 PM EDT)
Bulldog Stadium - Fresno, CA

Hornets (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Alonzo Carter (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 17 - 20 (17 - 20 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7.1 - 4.9 (#50)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 9)

Our Line: Fresno State -9.5 (SP+ FRES -2)
Projected Score: SAC: 15 - FRES: 25 (40)
FRES Win prob: 79% | Cover: 55%
SAC Travel: 151 miles

Bulldogs (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Matt Entz (9 - 4)
Avg Score : 26 - 19 (27 - 15 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.2 - 3.8 (#32)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 7)

Matchup
Schedules
SAC Players
FRES Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Sacramento State's 2026 Schedule

Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/29	Sacramento State at Eastern Michigan	-4	—	—	—	—
Sat 9/5	Sacramento State vs Mississippi Valley State	-18.5	—	—	—	—
Sat 9/12	Sacramento State at Fresno State	+9.5	—	—	—	—
Sat 9/19	Sacramento State vs North Dakota State	+2.5	—	—	—	—
Sat 9/26	Sacramento State vs Massachusetts	-29	—	—	—	—
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/10	Sacramento State at Bowling Green	-3.5	—	—	—	—
Sat 10/17	Sacramento State vs Ohio	-4.5	—	—	—	—
Sat 10/24	Sacramento State at Ball State	-15	—	—	—	—
Fri 10/30	Sacramento State vs Kent State	-15.5	—	—	—	—
Wed 11/4	Sacramento State vs Toledo	+6.5	—	—	—	—
Wed 11/11	Sacramento State at Central Michigan	+0.5	—	—	—	—
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/28	Sacramento State at Hawai'i	+7	—	—	—	—

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 4, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 4, Poor 5
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Sacramento State's Schedule

Fresno State's 2026 Schedule

Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/5	Fresno State at USC	+17.5	—	—	—	—
Sat 9/12	Fresno State vs Sacramento State	-9.5	—	—	—	—
Sat 9/19	Fresno State at San José State	-16.5	—	—	—	—
Sat 9/26	Fresno State vs Rice	-20.5	—	—	—	—
Sat 10/3	Fresno State at Washington State	-0.5	—	—	—	—
Sat 10/10	Fresno State vs Boise State	-1.5	—	—	—	—
Sat 10/17	Fresno State at San Diego State	+5.5	—	—	—	—
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/31	Fresno State vs Oregon State	-16	—	—	—	—
Sat 11/7	Fresno State at Utah State	-5.5	—	—	—	—
Sat 11/14	Fresno State at Texas State	+4	—	—	—	—
Sat 11/21	Fresno State vs Colorado State	-17	—	—	—	—
Sat 11/28	Fresno State vs TBD	-25.5	—	—	—	—

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 3, Bad 2, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 3, Bad 2, Poor 5
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Fresno State's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
SAC		0%	17	0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%	20	0%	0%	0	0	0	0
FRES	#106 (.11)	39% (111)	25.8	38% (120)	2.79 (102)	171	41% (78)	183	3.29 (111)	#41 (.11)	39% (32)	18.8	43% (78)	35% (13)	3.26 (33)	60.6	1.5	2

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
SAC		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
FRES		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2025

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
SAC Offense	1	17	17	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
FRES Defense	13	18.8	15.3	38.9%	3.26	2	-	-	-	-	-	50%	49%	43%	35%	17%	.11

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
SAC Defense	1	20	20	0%	0	0	-	-	-	-	-	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
FRES Offense	13	25.8	26.5	38.6%	3.29	1.5	19	354	171	183	4.6	53%	45%	38%	41%	15%	.11

Additional Stats 2025

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Sacramento State	1	0:00	0	NAN%	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	100
Fresno State	13	32:19	18.9	36%	43%	6.6	60.6	1.5	2	5.2	1.8	3	33.6

Run Game Stats (2026)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
SAC Offense	1	0%	0%	0	0	0	0		0	0%	0%	0
FRES Defense	13	50% (62)	43% (78)	-	-	-	-	.09 (61)	3 (92)	74% (91)	10% (70)	0.82 (8)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
SAC Defense	1	0%	0%	-	-	-	-		0	0%	0%	0
FRES Offense	13	53% (40)	38% (120)	37.1	170.7	4.6	22 (49)	.02 (114)	2.79 (102)	73% (57)	10% (87)	1.01 (50)

Pass Game Stats (2026)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
SAC Offense	1	0%	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		0	0%	0%		0%	0
FRES Defense	13	49% (76)	35% (13)	-	-	-	-	-	-	20 (12)	.15 (25)	1.6 (94)	33% (43)	27% (33)	.19 (24)	8% (13)	1.8 (18)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
SAC Defense	1	0%	0%	-	-	-	-	-	-	0		0	0%	0%		0%	0
FRES Offense	13	45% (99)	41% (78)	18.4	28.7	183.4	6.4	10	14 (75)	13 (127)	.25 (64)	1.5 (77)	33% (97)	30% (72)	.31 (69)	5% (45)	2 (86)

Sacramento State's Power Ratings
Sacramento State's Power Rating: -9.86 #114
Sacramento State's Offense Rating: 9.69 #113
Sacramento State's Defense Rating: 19.55 #111
2026 Talent Rating: 437.00 #119
Blue Chip Ratio: 1% #102
Sacramento State's 2026 Expected Record: 7.1 - 4.9
Sacramento State's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: NR
Sacramento State's Offense SP+ Rating: NR
Sacramento State's Defense SP+ Rating: NR

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 467.85
Average Power Five Talent: 871.03
Average FBS Talent: 676.61

Power Ratings Matchup
Sacramento State: -9.86 Fresno State: 4.585

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Sacramento State: Fresno State: 1.8

Fresno State's Power Ratings
Fresno State's Power Rating: 4.585 #56
Fresno State's Offense Rating: 15.14 #73
Fresno State's Defense Rating: 12.77 #43
2026 Talent Rating: 610.00 #81
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #104
Fresno State's 2026 Expected Record: 8.2 - 3.8
Fresno State's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 1.8 #69
Fresno State's Offense SP+ Rating: 23.0 #100
Fresno State's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.1 #37

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 597.13
Average Power Five Talent: 871.03
Average FBS Talent: 676.61

Sacramento State Scoring
Offense: 17 PPG
Offense on Road: 17
Defense: 20 PPG
Defense on Road: 20

Sacramento State's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
Fresno State 25
Sacramento State 15

Projected Total Points: 40

Fresno State Scoring
Offense: 25.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 26.5
Defense: 18.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 15.3

Fresno State's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	09/07	Fresno State	46	Sacramento State	30	Fresno State -18.5	Sacramento State	55.5	Over
2019	09/21	Fresno State	34	Sacramento State	20	Fresno State -24.5	Sacramento State	54.5	Under
2016	09/10	Fresno State	31	Sacramento State	3
2007	09/01	Fresno State	24	Sacramento State	3

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Fresno State	4	0	1 Overs
Sacramento State	0	2	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	4 - 0	0 - 2	0 - 2	0 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 4	2 - 0	0 - 0	2 - 0

(#114) SAC at (#56) FRES

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	SAC	FRES
Game ControlGC	#12	#52
Momentum ControlMC	NR	#17
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#114	#56
SP+SP+	NR	#69
Perf GradeGrade	NR	NR
OffenseOff	NR	NR
DefenseDef	NR	NR
Spec TeamsST	NR	NR
TalentTal	#119	#81
Blue ChipsBC%	#102	#104

Sacramento State Notes(2/15) 2025: (7-5), '24: (3-9), '23: (8-5), '22: (12-1)
(2/15) Lost top 2 QB, 3 RB, 1 WR from '25 via portal
(2/15) HC Carter was RB coach @ Arizona past 2 years
Sacramento State Injury Report

Fresno State Notes(3/1) Vibes: Good, 9-4 LY solid, Off must improve
(3/1) Year 2 under Entz & staff. Def > Off in 1st year
(3/1) QB Mandal vs Martin (MD). Both very inexp'd
(3/1) RB Donelson + Luke good duo, Thomas (BU) add
(3/1) WR Freeman good, have options. TE portal (NIU)
(3/1) OL decent LY, 3 really good starters back, depth
(3/1) Run Def must improve, DL is ? but has exp
(3/1) LB were very young LY but must improve
(3/1) CB Harris an AA, good #2 & S are decent. Top unit
Fresno State Injury Report

Sacramento State on Offense


CategoryCat	SAC Off	FRES Def
Game ControlGC	#16	#48
Momentum ControlMC	NR	#13
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	NR	#32
ExplosiveExp	NR	#25
PPAPPA	NR	#41
PowerPwr	#113	#43
SP+SP+	NR	#37
Pts POPPO	NR	#33
HavocHav	NR	#30

Sacramento State Run Game


CategoryCat	SAC Off	FRES Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	#78
Run ExplRExp	NR	#8
PPAExp	NR	#61
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	#92
Stuff RateStuff	NR	#50
TackleTak	-	NR

Sacramento State Pass Game


CategoryCat	SAC Off	FRES Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	#13
Pass ExplPExl	NR	#94
PPAExp	NR	#25
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	NR	#70
DB HavocDB	NR	#13

Fresno State on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat	FRES Off	SAC Def
Game ControlGC	#56	#12
Momentum ControlMC	#39	NR
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	#111	NR
ExplosiveExp	#54	NR
PPAPPA	#106	NR
PowerPwr	#73	#111
SP+SP+	#100	NR
Pts POPPO	#111	NR
HavocHav	#64	NR

Fresno State Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat	FRES Off	SAC Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	#120	NR
Run ExplRExp	#50	NR
PPAExp	#114	NR
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	#102	NR
Stuff RateStuff	#90	NR
TackleTak	-	NR

Fresno State Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 46%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat	FRES Off	SAC Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	#78	NR
Pass ExplPExl	#77	NR
PPAExp	#64	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	#87	NR
DB HavocDB	#45	NR

Program Comparison
FRES 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'26 Profile: Remains Top G5

SAC 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'26 Profile: Remains Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Bulldog Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Previous Matchups
Fresno State beat Sacramento State in 2024 (46-30)

SAC's OC Eric Kiesau (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Carson Conklin (Tr)	47	96	49%	354	1	2	3.7
Savion Red	1	1	100%	28	0	0	28.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Davion Godley (Tr)	94	512	4	5.4	52
Sam Adams II	36	181	3	5.0	34
Savion Red	12	58	0	4.8	13
Cincere Rhaney (Tr)	5	19	0	3.8	8

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jordan Williams	11	170	1	15.5	26
Sam Adams II	9	134	2	14.9	33
Matthew Coleman (Tr)	20	131	1	6.6	13
Jace Wilson	3	56	0	18.7	45

View Sacramento State's Full Roster

SAC's DC Adam Clark (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	PD
Dionte Thornton (Tr)	10	0	2
Tim Thomas (Tr)	6	0	0
Boogsie Silvera (Tr)	5	0	0
Deven Wright	5	1	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	PD
Dionte Thornton (Tr)	10	0	2
Tim Thomas (Tr)	6	0	0
Boogsie Silvera (Tr)	5	0	0
Deven Wright	5	1	0

Pass D	Tack	PD
Dionte Thornton (Tr)	10	2
Tim Thomas (Tr)	6	0
Boogsie Silvera (Tr)	5	0

FRES's OC Josh Davis (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Khristian Martin (Tr)	11	17	65%	105	1	0	6.2

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Rayshon Luke	110	699	6	6.4	69
Tariq Thomas (Tr)	131	602	3	4.6	49
Bryson Donelson	142	583	5	4.1	57
Brandon Ramirez	60	271	3	4.5	19

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Josiah Freeman	52	642	6	12.3	51
Ezekiel Avit	28	255	0	9.1	41
Rayshon Luke	36	228	2	6.3	23
Jahlil McClain	13	169	1	13.0	43

View Fresno State's Full Roster

FRES's DC Nick Benedetto (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Simeon Harris	53	7	1	0	5
Tytus Khajavi	37	3	1	1	0
K'Vion Thunderbird	32	2	0	1	3
Jahzon Jacks	32	7	4	3	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jahzon Jacks	32	7	4	3	0
Deijon Laffitte	27	5	3	0	3
Simeon Harris	53	7	1	0	5
Ryan Wilson	25	2	1	0	4

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Simeon Harris	53	7	1	0	5
Ryan Wilson	25	2	1	0	4
K'Vion Thunderbird	32	2	0	1	3