Florida State at Alabama - 2026 Matchup Preview
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Florida State Seminoles at Alabama Crimson Tide

Alabama logo
Saturday, September 19th 2026 (12:00 PM EDT)
Bryant Denny Stadium - Tuscaloosa, AL

 
Seminoles (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Mike Norvell (38 - 34)
Avg Score : 33 - 22 (19 - 30 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7.3 - 5.7 (#49)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 3) (Good: 6) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 3)
FSU coming off BYE
Our Line: Alabama -12.5  (SP+ ALA -9)

Projected Score: FSU: 19 - ALA: 32 (51)
ALA Win prob: 81% | Cover: 53%
FSU Travel: 270 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Crimson Tide (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Kalen DeBoer (20 - 8)
Avg Score : 30 - 19 (39 - 11 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.9 - 3.1 (#14)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 4) (Good: 4) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 0)
 
Florida State's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/29Florida State vs New Mexico State-26
Sat 8/29Florida State vs New Mexico State-26
Mon 9/7Florida State vs SMU+2.5
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/19Florida State at Alabama+12.5
Sat 9/26Florida State vs Central Arkansas-29.5
Sat 10/3Florida State vs Virginia-3.5
Fri 10/9Florida State at Louisville+5.5
Sat 10/17Florida State at Miami+17
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/31Florida State vs Clemson+0
Sat 11/7Florida State at Boston College-9
Fri 11/13Florida State at Pittsburgh+2.5
Sat 11/21Florida State vs NC State-4.5
Fri 11/27Florida State vs Florida+2.5

Total: Elite: 3, Good: 6, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 2
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 3, Good: 6, Avg 0, Bad 1, Poor 2
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Florida State's Schedule
Alabama's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/5Alabama vs East Carolina-20.5
Sat 9/12Alabama at Kentucky-13.5
Sat 9/19Alabama vs Florida State-12.5
Sat 9/26Alabama vs South Carolina-11.5
Sat 10/3Alabama at Mississippi State-14.5
Sat 10/10Alabama vs Georgia+7
Sat 10/17Alabama at Tennessee-0.5
Sat 10/24Alabama vs Texas A&M-3
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/7Alabama at LSU+3.5
Sat 11/14Alabama at Vanderbilt-8.5
Sat 11/21Alabama vs Chattanooga-33.5
Sat 11/28Alabama vs Auburn-12

Total: Elite: 4, Good: 4, Avg 3, Bad 0, Poor 0
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 4, Good: 4, Avg 3, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Alabama's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
FSU#22 (.27)46% (32)3350% (10)3.4 (7)21941% (81)2533.95 (46)#68 (.16)42% (76)2242% (66)43% (79)4.12 (110)45.31.61.2
ALA#48 (.2)43% (62)29.540% (103)2.73 (109)10445% (33)2644.04 (38)#27 (.08)38% (23)19.239% (31)38% (33)3.65 (66)39.40.91.3
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
FSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
ALA0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
FSU Offense123318.645.9%3.951.6244722192535.255%44%50%41%15%.27
ALA Defense1519.211.437.9%3.651.3 - - - - - 50%48%39%38%18%.08
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
FSU Defense122230.242.1%4.121.2 - - - - - 55%44%42%43%16%.16
ALA Offense1529.539.342.7%4.040.9203681042643.443%56%40%45%14%.2

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Florida State1228:4524.151%57%5.445.31.61.26.12.6029
Alabama1531:3420.342%61%4.539.40.91.35.72.2330.3
Run Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
FSU Offense1255% (32)50% (10)42.1218.85.231 (4).25 (12)3.4 (7)75% (47)9% (59)1.03 (45)
ALA Defense1550% (74)39% (31) - - - - .1 (66)2.81 (53)75% (101)11% (19)1 (91)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
FSU Defense1255% (123)42% (66) - - - - .11 (74)3.12 (106)76% (105)11% (28)0.86 (19)
ALA Offense1543% (118)40% (103)31104.23.421 (99).02 (115)2.73 (109)67% (100)8% (33)0.83 (122)

Pass Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
FSU Offense1244% (104)41% (81)16.728.3253.4915.220 (33)9 (60).32 (46)1.9 (5)31% (67)38% (10).5 (11)6% (48)2.1 (30)
ALA Defense1548% (60)38% (33) - - - - - - 11 (31).11 (17)1.5 (50)35% (19)28% (46).25 (53)6% (47)2 (72)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
FSU Defense1244% (16)43% (79) - - - - - - 12 (12).25 (69)1.5 (58)30% (104)30% (75).34 (92)5% (122)2 (68)
ALA Offense1556% (15)45% (33)22.934.9263.57.611.532 (2)5 (3).35 (37)1.6 (54)30% (49)33% (30).4 (29)5% (42)2 (72)

Florida State's Power Ratings
Florida State's Power Rating: 6.85  #33
Florida State's Offense Rating: 16.75  #54
Florida State's Defense Rating: 9.90  #24
2026 Talent Rating: 919.00  #23
Blue Chip Ratio: 40%  #17
Florida State's 2026 Expected Record: 7.3 - 5.7
Florida State's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 8.8  #35
Florida State's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.7  #45
Florida State's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.6  #30

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 848.71
Average Power Five Talent: 872.28
Average FBS Talent: 677.28

Power Ratings Matchup
Florida State: 6.85   Alabama: 20.28

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Florida State: 8.8   Alabama: 18.2




Alabama's Power Ratings
Alabama's Power Rating: 20.28  #12
Alabama's Offense Rating: 21.67  #19
Alabama's Defense Rating: 4.31  #9
2026 Talent Rating: 1069.00  #7
Blue Chip Ratio: 64  #9
Alabama's 2026 Expected Record: 8.9 - 3.1
Alabama's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 18.2  #11
Alabama's Offense SP+ Rating: 31.3  #30
Alabama's Defense SP+ Rating: 12.6  #3

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 985.31
Average Power Five Talent: 872.28
Average FBS Talent: 677.28


Florida State Scoring
Offense: 33 PPG
Offense on Road: 18.6
Defense: 22 PPG
Defense on Road: 30.2

Florida State's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Alabama 32
Florida State 19


Projected Total Points: 51
Alabama Scoring
Offense: 29.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 39.3
Defense: 19.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 11.4

Alabama's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202508/30Florida State31Alabama17Alabama -13.5Florida State50.5Under
201709/02Alabama24Florida State7Alabama -7.5Alabama51.0Under
200709/29Florida State21Alabama14
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Alabama110 Overs
Florida State212 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams3 - 02 - 01 - 01 - 0
Road Teams0 - 30 - 20 - 10 - 1

(#33) FSU at (#12) ALA
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatFSUALA
Game ControlGC #76 #18
Momentum ControlMC #30 #31
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #33 #12
SP+SP+ #35 #11
Perf GradeGradeNRNR
OffenseOffNRNR
DefenseDefNRNR
Spec TeamsSTNRNR
TalentTal #23 #7
Blue ChipsBC% #17 #9
Florida State Notes
(2/14) Vibes: Lowest in 40+ years, Norvell era failing
(3/16) TO's killed FSU LY, Off #'s were actually good
(3/16) QB: A Daniels (Aub) vs K Sperry (So)
(2/16) OL none back. 5 portals that started 12 games LY
(2/2) OC Gus Malzahn retiring, Tim Harris now OC (WR)
(2/2) Word is Norvell will call plays in '26
(2/1) RB has options. Wisner (Tx) added, Kromah back
(2/1) WR Robinson & Danzy great duo. Depth v young
(2/1) DL has some good parts + 2 exp'd portal adds
(2/1) LBs have one starter back and lots of questions
(2/1) DBs rebuild. 5 portal adds. Talent here but ?
Florida State Injury Report
Alabama Notes
(2/14) Vibes: Shaky, '25 finish, new reality, talent down
(3/4) DBs one of the best units in CFB, deep & talented
(2/7) Least hyped Bama team since before Saban
(1/28) Lost 19 portals that went to P4 schools
(1/28) DeBoer a really good coach, is that enough?
(1/28) QB battle? Austin Mack vs phenom Keelon Russell
(1/28) RBs bad LY, lots of talent but no portal adds?
(1/28) WR L Brooks came on LY, Williams? Rogers added
(1/28) OL only 2 clear starters, 5/6 portal adds inexp'd
(1/28) Portal on lines: IN: 2 OL+5 DL, OUT: 7 OL+6 DL
(1/28) Portaled DTs w good exp but LB's/DE's needed
Alabama Injury Report
Florida State on Offense
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat
FSU OffALA Def
Game ControlGC #64 #37
Momentum ControlMC #13 #37
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #32 #23
ExplosiveExp #20 #61
PPAPPA #22 #27
PowerPwr #54 #9
SP+SP+ #45 #3
Pts POPPO #46 #66
HavocHav #54 #26
Florida State Run Game
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat
FSU OffALA Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #10 #31
Run ExplRExp #45 #91
PPAExp #12 #66
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #7 #53
Stuff RateStuff #5 #66
TackleTak - NR
Florida State Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 44%
CategoryCat
FSU OffALA Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #81 #33
Pass ExplPExl #5 #50
PPAExp #46 #17
Pass Rush/BlockP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #59 #19
DB HavocDB #48 #47
Alabama on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 43%
CategoryCatALA OffFSU Def
Game ControlGC #13 #86
Momentum ControlMC #37 #61
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #62 #76
ExplosiveExp #50 #14
PPAPPA #48 #68
PowerPwr #19 #24
SP+SP+ #30 #30
Pts POPPO #38 #110
HavocHav #39 #72
Alabama Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat
ALA OffFSU Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #103 #66
Run ExplRExp #122 #19
PPAExp #115 #74
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #109 #106
Stuff RateStuff #109 #120
TackleTak - NR
Alabama Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 43%
CategoryCatALA OffFSU Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #33 #79
Pass ExplPExl #54 #58
PPAExp #37 #69
Pass Block/RushP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #33 #28
DB HavocDB #42 #122
Program Comparison
ALA 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFP Hopefuls
'26 Profile: Remains CFP Hopefuls

FSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'26 Profile: Up to Average P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Bryant Denny Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Previous Matchups
Florida State beat Alabama last year (31-17)

  
FSU's OC Tim Harris (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Dean DeNobile (Tr)22334764%25281977.3
Ashton Daniels (Tr)6811957%797326.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Tre Wisner13159734.648
Gemari Sands (Tr)10546504.437
Ousmane Kromah7240805.723
Samuel Singleton5136047.153
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Duce Robinson561074619.282
Micahi Danzy27571321.166
Desirrio Riles (Tr)28362212.942
Gemari Sands (Tr)4021705.418

View Florida State's Full Roster

FSU's DC Tony White (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Chris Jones (Tr)13210402
Ashlynd Barker485412
Blake Nichelson437111
Ja'Bril Rawls402002
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Mandrell Desir308711
Chris Jones (Tr)13210402
Ashlynd Barker485412
Rylan Kennedy (Tr)144211
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Nehemiah Chandler (Tr)3130013
Chris Jones (Tr)13210402
Ja'Bril Rawls402002

ALA's OC Ryan Grubb (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Austin Mack243275%228207.1
Keelon Russell111573%143209.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Daniel Hill7528463.830
Kevin Riley5922423.822
AK Dear1914037.456
Austin Mack92212.420
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Ryan Williams49689414.175
Lotzeir Brooks32441213.853
Noah Rogers (Tr)31413213.348
Daniel Hill2820317.341

View Alabama's Full Roster

ALA's DC Kane Wommack (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Brayson Hubbard745218
Caleb Woodson (Tr)573011
Yhonzae Pierre5215881
Keon Sabb523213
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Yhonzae Pierre5215881
Devan Thompkins (Tr)307312
Brayson Hubbard745218
Keon Sabb523213
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Brayson Hubbard745218
Zabien Brown393006
Dijon Lee Jr.325005