Sat, Sep 5 2026
·
Week 1
·
🏟 Bryant Denny Stadium
Tuscaloosa, AL
·
Turf
·
101,821 cap
East Carolina✈ 603 mi-1 hr TZ
Preseason projection — This game has not yet been played and 2026 in-season data is not yet available.
Edges are based on 2025 full-season performance.
Confidence will increase once in-season games are logged.
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Alabama,
while Game Control favors East Carolina.
Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
58.4%
Alabama wins
Lean
Game Control
49.4%
East Carolina wins
Toss-up
Advanced Stats
Advanced factors are split · No strong agreement signal
↓ See full breakdown
East Carolina 2026 Schedule
East Carolina's 2026 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/5 | East Carolina at Alabama | +14 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/12 | East Carolina vs App State | -17.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/19 | East Carolina at Old Dominion | +1 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/26 | East Carolina vs North Carolina Central | -28 | — | — | — | — |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/10 | East Carolina vs Rice | -23 | — | — | — | — |
| Thu 10/15 | East Carolina at UAB | -18 | — | — | — | — |
| Thu 10/22 | East Carolina at Memphis | +3 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/31 | East Carolina vs Temple | -12 | — | — | — | — |
| Fri 11/6 | East Carolina vs South Florida | -0.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/14 | East Carolina at Charlotte | -24.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/21 | East Carolina at Army | -2.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Fri 11/27 | East Carolina vs Florida Atlantic | -15 | — | — | — | — |
Alabama 2026 Schedule
Alabama's 2026 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/5 | Alabama vs East Carolina | -14 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/12 | Alabama at Kentucky | -12.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/19 | Alabama vs Florida State | -11.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/26 | Alabama vs South Carolina | -13 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/3 | Alabama at Mississippi State | -12.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/10 | Alabama vs Georgia | +8 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/17 | Alabama at Tennessee | +1 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/24 | Alabama vs Texas A&M | -1 | — | — | — | — |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/7 | Alabama at LSU | +2.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/14 | Alabama at Vanderbilt | -6.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/21 | Alabama vs Chattanooga | -32.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/28 | Alabama vs Auburn | -10 | — | — | — | — |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2025 season (prior year)
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season (prior year — 2026 data not yet available) ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Alabama Edge
Alabama +0.06
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 2025 full season · preseason estimate
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
East Carolina Edge
East Carolina +2.6
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 49.4% of games historically
Based on 2025 full season · preseason estimate
Coaching Matchup
East Carolina
Blake Harrell #61
14–5 (74%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Jordan Davis
Yr 1
#7
DC
Jordan Hankins
Yr 1
#68
Alabama
Kalen DeBoer #8
20–8 (71%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Ryan Grubb
Yr 2
#9
DC
Kane Wommack
Yr 3
#10
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓