Penn State at Michigan - 2026 Matchup Preview
Penn State logo Penn State Nittany Lions at Michigan WolverinesMichigan logo
Saturday, October 17th 2026 (12:00 PM EDT)
Michigan Stadium - Ann Arbor, MI

 
Nittany Lions (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Matt Campbell (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 31 - 21 (29 - 30 on Road)
Record Prediction: 0 - 0 (#1)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
MICH coming off BYE
PSU is playing their 7th straight game
Our Line: Michigan -3  (SP+ PSU -5.5)
Projected Score: PSU: 24 - MICH: 27 (51)
MICH Win prob: 56% | Cover: 47%
PSU Travel: 321 miles
Wolverines (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Kyle Whittingham (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 28 - 20 (29 - 13 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 0 - 0 (#1)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Penn State's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/5 Penn State vs Marshall-23
Sat 9/12 Penn State at Temple-19.5
Sat 9/19 Penn State vs Buffalo-28.5
Sat 9/26 Penn State vs Wisconsin-18.5
Sat 10/3 Penn State at Northwestern-9
Sat 10/10 Penn State vs USC+3.5
Sat 10/17 Penn State at Michigan+3
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/31 Penn State vs Purdue-21
Sat 11/7 Penn State at Washington+6
Sat 11/14 Penn State vs Minnesota-13.5
Sat 11/21 Penn State vs Rutgers-18.5
Sat 11/28 Penn State at Maryland-10.5

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Penn State's Schedule
Michigan's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/5 Michigan vs Western Michigan-23.5
Sat 9/12 Michigan vs Oklahoma+2
Sat 9/19 Michigan vs UTEP-31
Sat 9/26 Michigan vs Iowa-4
Sat 10/3 Michigan at Minnesota-9
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/17 Michigan vs Penn State-3
Sat 10/24 Michigan vs Indiana+11
Sat 10/31 Michigan at Rutgers-14
Sat 11/7 Michigan vs Michigan State-20
Sat 11/14 Michigan at Oregon+12.5
Sat 11/21 Michigan vs UCLA-20
Sat 11/28 Michigan at Ohio State+16.5

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Michigan's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
PSU#32 (.23)46% (26)3147% (33)3.12 (38)17445% (32)1884.32 (25)#50 (.12)41% (62)20.544% (94)38% (36)3.33 (37)37.30.81
MICH#54 (.19)44% (47)27.549% (13)3.29 (16)21140% (89)1873.64 (75)#52 (.12)42% (78)20.441% (58)44% (105)3.79 (80)39.11.31.4
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
PSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
MICH0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
PSU Offense133128.646.3%4.320.8203621741884.855%43%47%45%14%.23
MICH Defense1320.413.342.3%3.791.4 - - - - - 46%52%41%44%17%.12
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
PSU Defense1320.530.241.2%3.331 - - - - - 51%48%44%38%16%.12
MICH Offense1327.529.244.4%3.641.3203982111875.554%44%49%40%12%.19

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Penn State1329:2919.644%59%4.137.30.816.22.4231.9
Michigan1329:4720.244%39%4.439.11.31.45.82.2031.1
Run Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
PSU Offense1355% (29)47% (33)36.5174.44.830 (26).21 (25)3.12 (38)76% (43)9% (47)1 (52)
MICH Defense1346% (23)41% (58) - - - - .07 (49)2.68 (28)59% (11)10% (52)0.88 (23)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
PSU Defense1351% (83)44% (94) - - - - .11 (75)2.97 (84)69% (54)11% (34)0.93 (55)
MICH Offense1354% (33)49% (13)38.2211.25.533 (23).23 (17)3.29 (16)77% (32)8% (27)0.98 (62)

Pass Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
PSU Offense1343% (111)45% (32)17.426.1187.67.210.816 (86)7 (60).28 (53)1.4 (111)26% (11)31% (57).35 (52)5% (25)2 (69)
MICH Defense1352% (116)44% (105) - - - - - - 13 (4).22 (57)1.3 (3)30% (98)33% (111).4 (114)7% (38)2 (69)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
PSU Defense1348% (63)38% (36) - - - - - - 6 (55).18 (40)1.5 (26)30% (99)27% (28).23 (49)5% (101)1.9 (33)
MICH Offense1344% (103)40% (89)15.526.2186.87.11211 (106)10 (20).2 (96)1.5 (107)30% (51)30% (74).25 (91)4% (20)1.7 (132)

Penn State's Power Ratings
Penn State's Power Rating: 12.03  #24
Penn State's Offense Rating: 16.98  #26
Penn State's Defense Rating: 9.95  #25
2026 Talent Rating: 828.00  #45
Blue Chip Ratio: 0%  #24
Penn State's 2026 Expected Record: 0.0 - 0.0
Penn State's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 18.1  #15
Penn State's Offense SP+ Rating: 35.1  #17
Penn State's Defense SP+ Rating: 18.8  #22

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 896.78
Average Power Five Talent: 885.22
Average FBS Talent: 707.18

Power Ratings Matchup
Penn State: 12.03   Michigan: 17.925

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Penn State: 18.1   Michigan: 12.4




Michigan's Power Ratings
Michigan's Power Rating: 17.925  #16
Michigan's Offense Rating: 20.68  #15
Michigan's Defense Rating: 7.23  #17
2026 Talent Rating: 928.00  #24
Blue Chip Ratio: 0  #24
Michigan's 2026 Expected Record: 0.0 - 0.0
Michigan's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 12.4  #25
Michigan's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.9  #48
Michigan's Defense SP+ Rating: 17.0  #15

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 896.78
Average Power Five Talent: 885.22
Average FBS Talent: 707.18


Penn State Scoring
Offense: 31 PPG
Offense on Road: 28.6
Defense: 20.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 30.2

Penn State's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Michigan 27
Penn State 24

Projected Total Points: 51
Michigan Scoring
Offense: 27.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 29.2
Defense: 20.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 13.3

Michigan's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202311/11Penn State15Michigan24Michigan -4.0Michigan44.5Under
202210/15Michigan41Penn State17Michigan -7Michigan49.0Over
202111/13Penn State17Michigan21Michigan -2.5Michigan48.0Under
202011/28Michigan17Penn State27Michigan -1.0Penn State56.0Under
201910/19Penn State28Michigan21Penn State -7.5Michigan47.0Over
201811/03Michigan42Penn State7Michigan -13.5Michigan48.0Over
201710/21Penn State42Michigan13Penn State -7.5Penn State42.5Over
201609/24Michigan49Penn State10Michigan -15.5Michigan56.0Over
201511/21Penn State16Michigan28Michigan -5Michigan43.0Over
201410/11Michigan18Penn State13Penn State -2Michigan0
201310/12Penn State43Michigan40Michigan -1Penn State0
201010/30Penn State41Michigan31
200910/24Michigan10Penn State35
200810/18Penn State46Michigan17
200709/22Michigan14Penn State9
200610/14Penn State10Michigan17
200510/15Michigan27Penn State25
200210/12Michigan27Penn State24
200110/06Penn State0Michigan20
200011/10Michigan33Penn State11
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Michigan1386 Overs
Penn State733 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams13 - 76 - 54 - 22 - 3
Road Teams7 - 135 - 63 - 22 - 4

(#24) PSU at (#16) MICH
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatPSUMICH
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #24 #16
SP+SP+ #15 #25
Perf GradeGradeNRNR
OffenseOffNRNR
DefenseDefNRNR
Spec TeamsSTNRNR
TalentTal #45 #24
Blue ChipsBC% #24 #24
Penn State Notes
(1/27) Campbell leads Iowa State east in Happy Valley
(1/27) Likely have the easiest schedule in the Big Ten
Penn State Injury Report
Penn State on Offense
Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat
PSU OffMICH Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #26 #78
ExplosiveExp #100 #10
PPAPPA #32 #52
PowerPwr #26 #17
SP+SP+ #17 #15
Pts POPPO #25 #80
HavocHav #39 #46
Penn State Run Game
Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat
PSU OffMICH Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #33 #58
Run ExplRExp #52 #23
PPAExp #25 #49
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #38 #28
Stuff RateStuff #35 #85
TackleTak - NR
Penn State Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat
PSU OffMICH Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #32 #105
Pass ExplPExl #111 #3
PPAExp #53 #57
Pass Rush/BlockP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #47 #52
DB HavocDB #25 #38
Michigan on Offense
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 43%
CategoryCatMICH OffPSU Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #47 #62
ExplosiveExp #119 #18
PPAPPA #54 #50
PowerPwr #15 #25
SP+SP+ #48 #22
Pts POPPO #75 #37
HavocHav #13 #63
Michigan Run Game
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 43%
CategoryCat
MICH OffPSU Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #13 #94
Run ExplRExp #62 #55
PPAExp #17 #75
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #16 #84
Stuff RateStuff #9 #77
TackleTak - NR
Michigan Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 43%
CategoryCatMICH OffPSU Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #89 #36
Pass ExplPExl #107 #26
PPAExp #96 #40
Pass Block/RushP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #27 #34
DB HavocDB #20 #101
Program Comparison
MICH 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top 25 Contenders
'26 Profile: Remains Top 25 Contenders

PSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFP Hopefuls
'26 Profile: Remains CFP Hopefuls

Weather Forecast
Playing in Michigan Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Previous Matchups
Michigan beat Penn State in 2023 (24-15)

  
PSU's OC Taylor Mouser (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Rocco Becht (Tr)20433761%25651697.6
Alex Manske (Tr)4580%28005.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Carson Hansen (Tr)18795065.165
James Peoples (Tr)6134435.649
Rocco Becht (Tr)8711181.325
Quinton Martin Jr.2010305.221
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Brett Eskildsen (Tr)30526517.575
Chase Sowell (Tr)32500215.652
Benjamin Brahmer (Tr)37446612.127
Keith Jones31438414.148

View Penn State's Full Roster

PSU's DC D’Anton Lynn (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kooper Ebel (Tr)778153
Marcus Neal7711133
Caleb Bacon (Tr)6810343
Jamison Patton (Tr)481003
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Caleb Bacon (Tr)6810343
Tony Rojas255221
Yvan Kemajou135231
Kooper Ebel (Tr)778153
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Daryus Dixson242106
Kooper Ebel (Tr)778153
Caleb Bacon (Tr)6810343

MICH's OC Jason Beck (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Bryce Underwood20233560%24281197.2
Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi (Tr)448254%488126.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jordan Marshall150932106.265
Bryce Underwood8839264.537
Tomas O'Meara118307.537
Smith Snowden (Tr)84015.09
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Andrew Marsh45651414.569
JJ Buchanan (Tr)26427516.460
Zack Marshall16199112.437
Channing Goodwin12148012.339

View Michigan's Full Roster

MICH's DC Jay Hill (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Chris Bracy (Tr)717019
John Henry Daley45181201
Smith Snowden (Tr)372009
Jyaire Hill363105
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
John Henry Daley45181201
Dominic Nichols196210
Max Alford (Tr)212110
Jyaire Hill363105
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Chris Bracy (Tr)717019
Smith Snowden (Tr)372009
Jyaire Hill363105