Buffalo at Penn State - 2026 Matchup Preview
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Buffalo Bulls at Penn State Nittany Lions

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Saturday, September 19th 2026 (12:00 PM EDT)
Beaver Stadium - University Park, PA

 
Bulls (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Pete Lembo (14 - 11)
Avg Score : 24 - 24 (23 - 23 on Road)
Record Prediction: 0 - 0 (#104)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Our Line: Penn State -30  (SP+ PSU -26)
Projected Score: BUFF: 10 - PSU: 40 (49)
PSU Win prob: 99% | Cover: 54%
BUFF Travel: 158 miles
Nittany Lions (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Matt Campbell (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 31 - 21 (34 - 15 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 9.4 - 2.6 (#10)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 3) (Good: 0) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 6)
 
Buffalo's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/19Buffalo at Penn State+30————
Record: 0–0Projected spreads in italics

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Buffalo's Schedule
Penn State's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/5Penn State vs Marshall-25————
Sat 9/12Penn State at Temple-20————
Sat 9/19Penn State vs Buffalo-30————
Sat 9/26Penn State vs Wisconsin-20————
Fri 10/2Penn State at Northwestern-11.5————
Sat 10/10Penn State vs USC+0.5————
Sat 10/17Penn State at Michigan+4————
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/31Penn State vs Purdue-23————
Sat 11/7Penn State at Washington+6.5————
Sat 11/14Penn State vs Minnesota-13.5————
Sat 11/21Penn State vs Rutgers-18.5————
Sat 11/28Penn State at Maryland-13————
Record: 0–0Projected spreads in italics

Total: Elite: 3, Good: 0, Avg 3, Bad 3, Poor 3
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 3, Good: 0, Avg 3, Bad 3, Poor 3
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Penn State's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
BUFF#116 (.07)39% (109)2439% (108)2.68 (115)13339% (104)2293.5 (91)#49 (.12)39% (35)23.539% (27)40% (47)3.07 (21)45.71.81.3
PSU#32 (.23)46% (26)3147% (33)3.12 (38)17445% (32)1884.32 (25)#50 (.12)41% (62)20.544% (94)38% (36)3.33 (37)37.30.81
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
BUFF0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
PSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
BUFF Offense122423.238.8%3.51.8193621332293.945%53%39%39%16%.07
PSU Defense1320.515.141.2%3.331 - - - - - 51%48%44%38%16%.12
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
BUFF Defense1223.522.639.1%3.071.3 - - - - - 55%43%39%40%15%.12
PSU Offense13313446.3%4.320.8203621741884.855%43%47%45%14%.23

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Buffalo1228:0319.436%40%5.445.71.81.36.12.8129.5
Penn State1329:2919.644%59%4.137.30.816.22.4231.9
Run Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
BUFF Offense1245% (105)39% (108)34.4133.23.915 (70)-.03 (128)2.68 (115)69% (93)9% (65)0.88 (108)
PSU Defense1351% (83)44% (94) - - - - .11 (75)2.97 (84)69% (54)11% (34)0.93 (55)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
BUFF Defense1255% (124)39% (27) - - - - .05 (38)2.96 (79)66% (30)10% (52)0.89 (34)
PSU Offense1355% (29)47% (33)36.5174.44.830 (26).21 (25)3.12 (38)76% (43)9% (47)1 (52)

Pass Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
BUFF Offense1253% (31)39% (104)19.634.32296.711.719 (75)14 (34).19 (103)1.5 (101)34% (112)27% (108).28 (76)7% (104)2 (76)
PSU Defense1348% (63)38% (36) - - - - - - 6 (55).18 (40)1.5 (26)30% (99)27% (28).23 (49)5% (101)1.9 (33)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
BUFF Defense1243% (11)40% (47) - - - - - - 7 (123).23 (61)1.6 (98)32% (51)28% (36).17 (18)5% (95)1.7 (4)
PSU Offense1343% (111)45% (32)17.426.1187.67.210.816 (86)7 (60).28 (53)1.4 (111)26% (11)31% (57).35 (52)5% (25)2 (69)

Buffalo's Power Ratings
Buffalo's Power Rating: -12.23  #119
Buffalo's Offense Rating: 0.50  #135
Buffalo's Defense Rating: 17.73  #81
2026 Talent Rating: 564.00  #102
Blue Chip Ratio: 0%  #103
Buffalo's 2026 Expected Record: 0.0 - 0.0
Buffalo's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: -7.5  #95
Buffalo's Offense SP+ Rating: 18.2  #118
Buffalo's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.4  #70

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 546.62
Average Power Five Talent: 910.63
Average FBS Talent: 728.81

Power Ratings Matchup
Buffalo: -12.23   Penn State: 20.07

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Buffalo: -7.5   Penn State: 18.1




Penn State's Power Ratings
Penn State's Power Rating: 20.07  #22
Penn State's Offense Rating: 19.45  #25
Penn State's Defense Rating: 7.41  #21
2026 Talent Rating: 884.00  #39
Blue Chip Ratio: 29  #20
Penn State's 2026 Expected Record: 9.4 - 2.6
Penn State's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 18.1  #15
Penn State's Offense SP+ Rating: 35.1  #17
Penn State's Defense SP+ Rating: 18.8  #22

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 916.78
Average Power Five Talent: 910.63
Average FBS Talent: 728.81


Buffalo Scoring
Offense: 24 PPG
Offense on Road: 23.2
Defense: 23.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 22.6

Buffalo's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Penn State 40
Buffalo 10

Projected Total Points: 49
Penn State Scoring
Offense: 31 PPG
Offense at Home: 34
Defense: 20.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 15.1

Penn State's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
201909/07Penn State45Buffalo13Penn State -31.5Penn State57.0Over
201509/12Penn State27Buffalo14Penn State -16.5Buffalo47.5Under
200709/15Penn State45Buffalo24
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Penn State311 Overs
Buffalo011 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams3 - 01 - 11 - 10 - 0
Road Teams0 - 31 - 10 - 01 - 1

(#119) BUFF at (#22) PSU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatBUFFPSU
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #119 #22
SP+SP+ #95 #15
Perf GradeGradeNRNR
OffenseOffNRNR
DefenseDefNRNR
Spec TeamsSTNRNR
TalentTal #102 #39
Blue ChipsBC% #103 #20
Buffalo Notes
(3/4) Vibes: Lembo won 9 in '24, but regressed LY
(3/4) QB Holmes (D II) 3K yds, 24 TD, 240 rushing
(3/4) RB Shelton (#2 LY) some exp, Enlow (Fr) ready?
(3/4) WR Gathings (#2 LY) good, some exp, big guys
(3/4) OL is ?, 2 starters, 1 PT and 4 portal adds
(3/4) F7 lost most from good Def LY, only 6 portals
(3/4) DL is light on exp, size, talent. LB a little better
(3/4) CB looks really strong, Greer a good S. Good unit
Buffalo Injury Report
Penn State Notes
(2/17) Vibes: Ready for Campbell & new era of PSU
(2/12) LB coach T Veidt was Cincy's DC last 2 years
(2/2) Reset w Campbell & staff + 23 Iowa St portals
(1/29) Does roster churn wipe slate? Great looking staff
(1/28) Over 50% new roster, 23 of 36 Portals from ISU
(1/28) 12 starters from Iowa St incl QB + all skill pos
(1/28) OL has big ? at OT, DL has big ? at DT.
(1/28) Def back 7 solid, 3 ISU LB's. DBs good w exp
(1/27) Likely have the easiest schedule in the Big Ten
Penn State Injury Report
Buffalo on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat
BUFF OffPSU Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #109 #62
ExplosiveExp #104 #18
PPAPPA #116 #50
PowerPwr #135 #21
SP+SP+ #118 #22
Pts POPPO #91 #37
HavocHav #87 #63
Buffalo Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat
BUFF OffPSU Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #108 #94
Run ExplRExp #108 #55
PPAExp #128 #75
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #115 #84
Stuff RateStuff #68 #77
TackleTak - NR
Buffalo Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat
BUFF OffPSU Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #104 #36
Pass ExplPExl #101 #26
PPAExp #103 #40
Pass Rush/BlockP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #65 #34
DB HavocDB #104 #101
Penn State on Offense
Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCatPSU OffBUFF Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #26 #35
ExplosiveExp #100 #56
PPAPPA #32 #49
PowerPwr #25 #81
SP+SP+ #17 #70
Pts POPPO #25 #21
HavocHav #39 #75
Penn State Run Game
Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat
PSU OffBUFF Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #33 #27
Run ExplRExp #52 #34
PPAExp #25 #38
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #38 #79
Stuff RateStuff #35 #94
TackleTak - NR
Penn State Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCatPSU OffBUFF Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #32 #47
Pass ExplPExl #111 #98
PPAExp #53 #61
Pass Block/RushP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #47 #52
DB HavocDB #25 #95
Program Comparison
PSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFP Hopefuls
'26 Profile: Remains CFP Hopefuls

BUFF 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average G5
'26 Profile: Remains Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Beaver Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
No Matchups Past 4 Years
  
BUFF's OC Tony Tokarz (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Terrance Shelton Jr.5724414.320
James McNeil Jr.126725.626
Jason Wright144503.29
Messiah Burch114103.714
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jasaiah Gathings36410311.439
Trevor Wilson (Tr)2219318.830
Chance Morrow8129216.126
Patrick Clacks III127125.911

View Buffalo's Full Roster

BUFF's DC Joe Bowen (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Miles Greer743313
Saveon Brown527224
Keontez Bradley280004
Kobi Blackwell200007
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Miles Greer743313
Saveon Brown527224
Cornell Evans142111
Messiah Burch10000
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kobi Blackwell200007
Keontez Bradley280004
Saveon Brown527224

PSU's OC Taylor Mouser (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Rocco Becht (Tr)20433761%25651697.6
Alex Manske (Tr)4580%28005.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Carson Hansen (Tr)18795065.165
James Peoples (Tr)6134435.649
Rocco Becht (Tr)8711181.325
Quinton Martin Jr.2010305.221
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Brett Eskildsen (Tr)30526517.575
Chase Sowell (Tr)32500215.652
Benjamin Brahmer (Tr)37446612.127
Keith Jones31438414.148

View Penn State's Full Roster

PSU's DC D’Anton Lynn (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Marcus Neal7711133
Kooper Ebel (Tr)778153
Caleb Bacon (Tr)6810343
Jamison Patton (Tr)481003
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Caleb Bacon (Tr)6810343
Tony Rojas255221
Yvan Kemajou135231
Marcus Neal7711133
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Daryus Dixson242106
Marcus Neal7711133
Caleb Bacon (Tr)6810343