Thu, Aug 28 2025
·
Week 1
·
🏟 Protective Stadium
Birmingham, AL
·
Turf
·
47,100 cap
Alabama State✈ 85 miSame TZ
Preseason projection — This game has not yet been played and 2025 in-season data is not yet available.
Edges are based on 2024 full-season performance.
Confidence will increase once in-season games are logged.
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
76%
UAB wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
UAB -21.0
O/U 53.5
Bovada
Alabama State 2025 Schedule
Alabama State's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8/28 | Alabama State at UAB | +21.0L42–52 | 53.5 | L42–52 | O | Y |
UAB 2025 Schedule
UAB's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8/28 | UAB vs Alabama State | -21.0W52–42 | 53.5 | W52–42 | O | N |
| Sat 9/6 | UAB at Navy | +20.5L24–38 | 59.0 | L24–38 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/13 | UAB vs Akron | -12.5W31–28 | 58.5 | W31–28 | O | N |
| Sat 9/20 | UAB at Tennessee | +39.5L24–56 | 69.5 | L24–56 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/4 | UAB vs Army | +6.5L13–31 | 55.5 | L13–31 | U | N |
| Sat 10/11 | UAB at Florida Atlantic | +4.5L33–53 | 66.5 | L33–53 | O | N |
| Sat 10/18 | UAB vs Memphis | +23.5W31–24 | 59.5 | W31–24 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/1 | UAB at UConn | +10.0L19–38 | 61.5 | L19–38 | U | N |
| Sat 11/8 | UAB at Rice | -1.5L17–24 | 51.5 | L17–24 | U | N |
| Sat 11/15 | UAB vs North Texas | +17.5L24–53 | 69.5 | L24–53 | O | N |
| Sat 11/22 | UAB vs South Florida | +21.5L18–48 | 68.5 | L18–48 | U | N |
| Sat 11/29 | UAB at Tulsa | +9.0W31–24 | 56.5 | W31–24 | U | Y |
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Alabama State Edge
Alabama State +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 2024 full season · preseason estimate
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
UAB Edge
UAB +37.7
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 2024 full season · preseason estimate
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓