Fri, Sep 1 2023
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Week 1
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🏟 Faurot Field
Columbia, MO
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Turf
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71,168 cap
South Dakota✈ 358 miSame TZ
Preseason projection — This game has not yet been played and 2023 in-season data is not yet available.
Edges are based on 2022 full-season performance.
Confidence will increase once in-season games are logged.
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
76%
Missouri wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Missouri -27
O/U 44.5
William Hill (New Jersey)
South Dakota 2023 Schedule
South Dakota's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8/31 | South Dakota at Missouri | +27.0L10–35 | 44.5 | L10–35 | O | Y |
Missouri 2023 Schedule
Missouri's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 8/31 | Missouri vs South Dakota | -27.0W35–10 | 44.5 | W35–10 | O | N |
| Sat 9/9 | Missouri vs Middle Tennessee | -21.0W23–19 | 47.5 | W23–19 | U | N |
| Sat 9/16 | Missouri vs Kansas State | +3.5W30–27 | 48.0 | W30–27 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/23 | Missouri vs Memphis | -6.5W34–27 | 52.0 | W34–27 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/30 | Missouri at Vanderbilt | -14.0W38–21 | 53.5 | W38–21 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/7 | Missouri vs LSU | +6.0L39–49 | 63.5 | L39–49 | O | N |
| Sat 10/14 | Missouri at Kentucky | +1.5W38–21 | 50.5 | W38–21 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/21 | Missouri vs South Carolina | -7.5W34–12 | 57.5 | W34–12 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/4 | Missouri at Georgia | +15.0L21–30 | 56.5 | L21–30 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/11 | Missouri vs Tennessee | +1.0W36–7 | 58.5 | W36–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/18 | Missouri vs Florida | -12.5W33–31 | 56.5 | W33–31 | O | N |
| Fri 11/24 | Missouri at Arkansas | -9.5W48–14 | 53.5 | W48–14 | O | Y |
| Fri 12/29 | Missouri vs Ohio State | +4.0W14–3 | 51.0 | W14–3 | U | Y |
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
South Dakota Edge
South Dakota +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 2022 full season · preseason estimate
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Missouri Edge
Missouri +45.3
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 2022 full season · preseason estimate
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓