Air Force at Boise State - 2019 Matchup Preview

Air Force Falcons at Boise State Broncos

Friday, September 20th 2019 (9:00 PM EDT)
Boise State -7.5 (53.0)
Boise State 30 - Air Force: 19 (Mountain West)

Falcons (11 - 2) (8 - 5 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 30 - 30 (32 - 33 on Road)
'19 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

AFA 2nd straight Road Game
BSU 3rd straight Home Game
BSU is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: -0.5 (SP+ AFA -4)
Projected Score: AFA: 27 - BSU: 34 (61)
BSU Win prob: 73% | Cover: 49%
AFA Travel: 669 miles

Broncos (12 - 2) (8 - 6 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 30 - 24 (41 - 22 @ Home)
'19 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
AFA Players
BSU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Air Force's 2019 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Air Force vs Colgate	-23.5	43.5	W 48 - 7	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/14	Air Force at Colorado	+3.0	58.0	W 30 - 23	U	Y
Fri 9/20	Air Force at Boise State	+7.5	53.0	L 19 - 30	U	N
Fri 9/27	Air Force vs San José State	-19.5	58.5	W 41 - 24	O	N
Sat 10/5	Air Force at Navy	-3.0	46.5	L 25 - 34	O	N
Sat 10/12	Air Force vs Fresno State	-2.5	50.5	W 43 - 24	O	Y
Sat 10/19	Air Force at Hawai'i	-4.5	66.5	W 56 - 26	O	Y
Sat 10/26	Air Force vs Utah State	-4.0	58.5	W 31 - 7	U	Y
Sat 11/2	Air Force vs Army	-17.0	44.5	W 17 - 13	U	N
Sat 11/9	Air Force at New Mexico	-21.0	56.5
Sat 11/16	Air Force at Colorado State	-11.0	63.5	W 38 - 21	U	Y
Sat 11/23	Air Force at New Mexico	-24.0	56.5	W 44 - 22	O	N
Sat 11/30	Air Force vs Wyoming	-13.5	41.5	W 20 - 6	U	Y
Fri 12/27	Air Force vs Washington State	-3.0	73.0	W 31 - 21	U	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Air Force's Schedule

Boise State's 2019 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/31	Boise State at Florida State	+6.5	55.0	W 36 - 31	O	Y
Fri 9/6	Boise State vs Marshall	-14.0	58.0	W 14 - 7	U	N
Sat 9/14	Boise State vs Portland State	-32.5	54.0	W 45 - 10	O	Y
Fri 9/20	Boise State vs Air Force	-7.5	53.0	W 30 - 19	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/5	Boise State at UNLV	-24.0	57.0	W 38 - 13	U	Y
Sat 10/12	Boise State vs Hawai'i	-11.5	60.5	W 59 - 37	O	Y
Sat 10/19	Boise State at BYU	-7.0	45.0	L 25 - 28	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/2	Boise State at San José State	-16.0	60.0	W 52 - 42	O	N
Sat 11/9	Boise State vs Wyoming	-16.0	49.0	W 20 - 17	U	N
Sat 11/16	Boise State vs New Mexico	-27.5	59.0	W 42 - 9	U	Y
Sat 11/23	Boise State at Utah State	-9.5	53.0	W 56 - 21	O	Y
Fri 11/29	Boise State at Colorado State	-13.5	56.5	W 31 - 24	U	N
Sat 12/7	Boise State vs Hawai'i	-14.0	65.0	W 31 - 10	U	Y
Sat 12/21	Boise State vs Washington	+4.0	48.0	L 7 - 38	U	N

Important Stats (2018)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
AFA	.2	46%	29.8	46%	3.01	284	45%	131	3.71	.18	40%	30.3	35%	46%	3.78	43.4	1.3	1.2
BSU	.24	48%	29.9	46%	2.78	168	49%	292	3.75	.12	41%	24.1	42%	38%	3.14	53.8	1	1.6

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
AFA		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
BSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2018

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
AFA Offense	12	29.8	32.2	46.4%	3.71	1.3	22	415	284	131	4.8	79%	20%	46%	45%	11%	.2
BSU Defense	13	24.1	22.3	41.4%	3.14	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	48%	50%	42%	38%	16%	.12

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
AFA Defense	12	30.3	32.8	40.4%	3.78	1.2	-	-	-	-	-	53%	46%	35%	46%	13%	.18
BSU Offense	13	29.9	41.3	48.4%	3.75	1	24	460	168	292	4.2	48%	51%	46%	49%	13%	.24

Additional Stats 2018

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Air Force	12	34:13	22	41%	62%	4.5	43.4	1.3	1.2	4.3	1	3	27.8
Boise State	13	32:52	24.2	52%	59%	5.8	53.8	1	1.6	5.8	2.8	3	30.7

Run Game Stats (2019)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
AFA Offense	12	79%	46%	59.4	283.7	4.8	33	.13	3.01	78%	8%	0.94
BSU Defense	13	48%	42%	-	-	-	-	.09	2.72	67%	12%	0.86

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
AFA Defense	12	53%	35%	-	-	-	-	.02	2.4	69%	9%	1.06
BSU Offense	13	48%	46%	39.8	167.5	4.2	24	.08	2.78	72%	9%	0.89

Pass Game Stats (2019)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
AFA Offense	12	20%	45%	7.8	14	131.3	9.4	17	10	5	.49	1.9	25%	31%	.36	3%	2
BSU Defense	13	50%	38%	-	-	-	-	-	-	7	.16	1.6	34%	26%	.08	4%	1.8

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
AFA Defense	12	46%	46%	-	-	-	-	-	-	7	.38	1.8	36%	34%	.34	4%	2.1
BSU Offense	13	51%	49%	23.8	35.4	292	8.3	12.3	31	8	.42	1.6	30%	39%	.46	4%	2

Air Force's Power Ratings
Air Force's Power Rating: NR
Air Force's Offense Rating: NR
Air Force's Defense Rating: NR
2019 Talent Rating: #131
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Air Force's 2019 Expected Record: -
Air Force's 2019 Overall SP+ Rating: 12.1 #25
Air Force's Offense SP+ Rating: 36.2 #17
Air Force's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.8 #53

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Air Force: Boise State: 6.55

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Air Force: 12.1 Boise State: 8.1

Boise State's Power Ratings
Boise State's Power Rating: 6.55 NR
Boise State's Offense Rating: NR
Boise State's Defense Rating: NR
2019 Talent Rating: #62
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Boise State's 2019 Expected Record: -
Boise State's 2019 Overall SP+ Rating: 8.1 #37
Boise State's Offense SP+ Rating: 32.9 #38
Boise State's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.0 #48

Average Talent
Average Pac-12 Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Air Force Scoring
Offense: 29.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 32.2
Defense: 30.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 32.8

Air Force's 2019 Record
Record: 11 - 2
Record vs Spread: 8 - 5 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record on Road: 5 - 2
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Boise State 34
Air Force 27

Projected Total Points: 61

Boise State Scoring
Offense: 29.9 PPG
Offense at Home: 41.3
Defense: 24.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 22.3

Boise State's 2019 Record
Record: 12 - 2
Record vs Spread: 8 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 8
Record at home: 7 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 5 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	09/20	Air Force	37	Boise State	49	Boise State -10.5	Boise State	51.5	Over
2023	11/24	Boise State	27	Air Force	19	Boise State -6.5	Boise State	44.5	Over
2022	10/22	Air Force	14	Boise State	19	Air Force -2.5	Boise State	46.5	Under
2021	10/16	Boise State	17	Air Force	24	Boise State -3	Air Force	52.0	Under
2020	10/31	Air Force	30	Boise State	49	Boise State -10.5	Boise State	0
2019	09/20	Boise State	30	Air Force	19	Boise State -7.5	Boise State	53.0	Under
2018	10/27	Air Force	38	Boise State	48	Boise State -10	NA	58.0	Over
2017	11/18	Boise State	44	Air Force	19	Boise State -17.5	Boise State	60.5	Over
2016	11/25	Air Force	27	Boise State	20	Boise State -9	Air Force	63.5	Under
2015	11/20	Boise State	30	Air Force	37	Boise State -14.5	Air Force	55.0	Over
2014	09/27	Air Force	28	Boise State	14	Boise State -15	Air Force	0
2013	09/13	Boise State	42	Air Force	20	Boise State -24	Air Force	0
2011	10/22	Boise State	37	Air Force	26

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Boise State	9	6	5 Overs
Air Force	4	5	4 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	7 - 6	5 - 6	3 - 4	2 - 2
Road Teams	6 - 7	6 - 5	2 - 2	4 - 3

(#) AFA at (#) BSU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	AFA	BSU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#25	#37
Perf GradeGrade	NR	NR
OffenseOff	NR	NR
DefenseDef	NR	NR
Spec TeamsST	NR	NR
TalentTal	#131	#62
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

Air Force Injury Report

Boise State Injury Report

Air Force on Offense


CategoryCat	AFA Off	BSU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#17	#48
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Air Force Run Game


CategoryCat	AFA Off	BSU Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	NR

Air Force Pass Game


CategoryCat	AFA Off	BSU Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Boise State on Offense


CategoryCat	BSU Off	AFA Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#38	#53
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Boise State Run Game


CategoryCat	BSU Off	AFA Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	NR

Boise State Pass Game


CategoryCat	BSU Off	AFA Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
BSU 5 Year Profile: Improving Below Avg G5
'19 Profile: Up to Average P4

AFA 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'19 Profile: Down to Top 25 Contenders

Weather Forecast
Playing in Albertsons Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 4
Boise State -7.5 (53.0)
Boise State won vs Air Force this year (30-19)

Previous Matchups
Boise State beat Air Force last year (49-37)
Boise State beat Air Force in 2023 (27-19)

AFA's OC ()

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Air Force's Full Roster

AFA's DC ()

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

BSU's OC ()

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Boise State's Full Roster

BSU's DC ()

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD