Preseason projection — This game has not yet been played and 2026 in-season data is not yet available.
Edges are based on 2025 full-season performance.
Confidence will increase once in-season games are logged.
Matchup Prediction
Ohio
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Ohio entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Ohio wins
Lean
Game Control
64.9%
Ohio wins
Lean
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Ohio
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Ohio 2026 Schedule
Ohio's 2026 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/5 | Ohio at Nebraska | +15 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/12 | Ohio vs Jacksonville State | -0 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/19 | Ohio at South Alabama | -2.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/26 | Ohio vs Stonehill | -16.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/3 | Ohio at Kent State | -8.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/10 | Ohio vs Central Michigan | -2 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/17 | Ohio at Sacramento State | +4.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/24 | Ohio vs Eastern Michigan | -7 | — | — | — | — |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Tue 11/3 | Ohio at Akron | -3.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Tue 11/10 | Ohio at Miami (OH) | +8.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Tue 11/17 | Ohio vs Ball State | -17.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Fri 11/27 | Ohio vs Toledo | +8.5 | — | — | — | — |
Akron 2026 Schedule
Akron's 2026 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 9/3 | Akron at Wake Forest | +20.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/12 | Akron vs Robert Morris | -10.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/19 | Akron at Minnesota | +19.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/26 | Akron vs UNLV | +13.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/3 | Akron at Central Michigan | +8.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/10 | Akron vs Eastern Michigan | -1 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/17 | Akron at Miami (OH) | +14 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/24 | Akron at Kent State | -2.5 | — | — | — | — |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Tue 11/3 | Akron vs Ohio | +3.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Tue 11/10 | Akron vs Western Michigan | +7 | — | — | — | — |
| Wed 11/18 | Akron at Massachusetts | -16.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Fri 11/27 | Akron vs Buffalo | +1.5 | — | — | — | — |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2025 season (prior year)
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Ohio
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season (prior year — 2026 data not yet available) ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Ohio Edge
Ohio +0.21
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 2025 full season · preseason estimate
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Ohio Edge
Ohio +18.3
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 64.9% of games historically
Based on 2025 full season · preseason estimate
Coaching Matchup
Ohio
John Hauser #77
1–0 (100%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Scott Isphording
Yr 2
#109
DC
Kurt Mattix
Yr 1
#23
Akron
Joe Moorhead #138
13–35 (27%)
· Yr 5 at school
OC
Joe Moorhead
Yr 1
#56
DC
Tim Tibesar
Yr 3
#133
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓