Toledo at Ball State - 2026 Matchup Preview
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Toledo Rockets at Ball State Cardinals

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Saturday, October 3rd 2026 (12:00 PM EDT)
Scheumann Stadium - Muncie, IN  (Mid-American)

 
Rockets (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Mike Jacobs (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 31 - 13 (17 - 17 on Road)
Record Prediction: 9.9 - 2.1 (#8)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 10)
BALL is playing their 5th straight game
TOL is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Toledo -23.5  (SP+ TOL -29)

Projected Score: TOL: 33 - BALL: 10 (43)
TOL Win prob: 96% | Cover: 54%
TOL Travel: 137 miles
Cardinals (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Mike Uremovich (4 - 8)
Avg Score : 16 - 30 (24 - 22 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 2.6 - 9.4 (#111)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 8)
 
Toledo's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/5Toledo at Michigan State-4
Sat 9/12Toledo vs Central Connecticut-27.5
Sat 9/19Toledo vs Temple-11
Sat 9/26Toledo vs San Diego State-1.5
Sat 10/3Toledo at Ball State-23.5
Sat 10/10Toledo vs Buffalo-15.5
Sat 10/17Toledo at Eastern Michigan-13
Sat 10/24Toledo vs Western Michigan-10
— Bye Week —
Wed 11/4Toledo at Sacramento State-6.5
Wed 11/11Toledo vs Massachusetts-32
Wed 11/18Toledo vs Bowling Green-17.5
Fri 11/27Toledo at Ohio-8.5

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 6
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Toledo's Schedule
Ball State's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/5Ball State at Ohio State+38
Sat 9/12Ball State vs Stony Brook-1
Sat 9/19Ball State at Liberty+19
Sat 9/26Ball State at Kent State+7
Sat 10/3Ball State vs Toledo+23.5
Sat 10/10Ball State at Northwestern+27.5
Sat 10/17Ball State at Bowling Green+13.5
Sat 10/24Ball State vs Sacramento State+15
— Bye Week —
Wed 11/4Ball State at Massachusetts-7.5
Wed 11/11Ball State vs Buffalo+10.5
Tue 11/17Ball State at Ohio+17.5
Sat 11/28Ball State vs Central Michigan+13

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 3, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 3, Poor 5
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Ball State's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TOL#63 (.18)44% (53)30.843% (70)2.91 (73)17844% (40)2383.86 (55)#2 (-.07)33% (4)13.339% (29)28% (1)2.45 (4)74.61.21.6
BALL#134 (-)33% (136)15.834% (133)2.52 (130)13431% (133)1382.71 (132)#79 (.18)44% (106)29.847% (112)44% (97)3.57 (59)38.81.31.1
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
TOL0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
BALL0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TOL Offense1330.817.343.6%3.861.2214161782384.949%49%43%44%13%.18
BALL Defense1229.821.644.5%3.571.1 - - - - - 52%46%47%44%14%.18
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
TOL Defense1313.316.733.3%2.451.6 - - - - - 52%45%39%28%20%-.07
BALL Offense1215.824.432.7%2.711.3152721341383.555%42%34%31%21%-

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Toledo1330:2621.240%24%8.574.61.21.67.12.8331.2
Ball State1229:4414.734%53%4.738.81.31.14.61.8127.7
Run Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TOL Offense1349% (69)43% (70)36.2177.74.922 (40).12 (64)2.91 (73)78% (27)9% (53)0.9 (95)
BALL Defense1252% (99)47% (112) - - - - .16 (98)2.97 (83)63% (17)9% (99)1.03 (100)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
TOL Defense1352% (98)39% (29) - - - - -.01 (13)2.36 (7)67% (39)13% (7)0.87 (22)
BALL Offense1255% (28)34% (133)37.8133.73.511 (88).03 (111)2.52 (130)58% (133)16% (136)1.09 (23)

Pass Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TOL Offense1349% (66)44% (40)19.730.7238.17.812.127 (22)10 (60).28 (55)1.6 (62)32% (71)29% (79).2 (112)4% (11)1.9 (115)
BALL Defense1246% (39)44% (97) - - - - - - 9 (100).3 (93)1.6 (72)30% (101)32% (101).33 (89)5% (90)2 (64)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
TOL Defense1345% (30)28% (1) - - - - - - 13 (55)-.08 (1)1.6 (108)35% (22)19% (1)-.01 (1)7% (15)2.2 (124)
BALL Offense1242% (112)31% (133)1323.1138610.611 (114)8 (20)-.03 (136)1.6 (64)36% (132)22% (133).06 (130)5% (42)1.9 (89)

Toledo's Power Ratings
Toledo's Power Rating: 1.83  #59
Toledo's Offense Rating: 15.75  #68
Toledo's Defense Rating: 13.92  #56
2026 Talent Rating: 544.00  #93
Blue Chip Ratio: 125%  #81
Toledo's 2026 Expected Record: 9.9 - 2.1
Toledo's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 6.0  #48
Toledo's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.8  #75
Toledo's Defense SP+ Rating: 18.5  #21

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 467.85
Average Power Five Talent: 871.03
Average FBS Talent: 676.61

Power Ratings Matchup
Toledo: 1.83   Ball State: -19.805

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Toledo: 6.0   Ball State: -23.0




Ball State's Power Ratings
Ball State's Power Rating: -19.805  #137
Ball State's Offense Rating: 5.92  #132
Ball State's Defense Rating: 27.53  #137
2026 Talent Rating: 462.00  #109
Blue Chip Ratio: 0  #104
Ball State's 2026 Expected Record: 2.6 - 9.4
Ball State's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: -23.0  #132
Ball State's Offense SP+ Rating: 13.4  #134
Ball State's Defense SP+ Rating: 34.4  #115

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 467.85
Average Power Five Talent: 871.03
Average FBS Talent: 676.61


Toledo Scoring
Offense: 30.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 17.3
Defense: 13.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 16.7

Toledo's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Toledo 33
Ball State 10


Projected Total Points: 43
Ball State Scoring
Offense: 15.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 24.4
Defense: 29.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 21.6

Ball State's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202511/22Toledo38Ball State9Toledo -29.5Ball State45.5Over
202310/14Ball State6Toledo13Toledo -17.5Ball State48.5Under
202211/08Toledo28Ball State21Toledo -11Ball State50.0Under
202109/25Ball State12Toledo22Toledo -4.5Toledo56.5Under
202011/28Toledo24Ball State27Toledo -9.5Ball State67.0Under
201910/19Ball State52Toledo14Ball State -3.5Ball State58.5Over
201810/31Toledo45Ball State13Toledo -19.5Toledo64.0Under
201710/26Ball State17Toledo58Toledo -26.5Toledo55.5Over
201611/16Toledo37Ball State19Toledo -19Ball State68.5Under
201510/03Ball State10Toledo24Toledo -9.5Toledo54.5Under
201409/20Toledo34Ball State23Toledo -9Toledo0
201309/28Ball State31Toledo24Ball State -1Ball State0
201211/06Toledo27Ball State34
201111/25Ball State28Toledo45
201010/23Toledo31Ball State24
200910/03Ball State30Toledo37
200810/04Toledo0Ball State31
200711/13Ball State41Toledo20
200611/14Toledo17Ball State20
200510/15Ball State14Toledo34
200410/02Toledo52Ball State14
200310/25Ball State38Toledo14
200210/12Toledo37Ball State17
200110/20Ball State24Toledo20
200011/10Toledo31Ball State3
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Ball State973 Overs
Toledo1657 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams14 - 115 - 74 - 41 - 3
Road Teams11 - 147 - 53 - 14 - 4

(#59) TOL at (#137) BALL
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatTOLBALL
Game ControlGC #69 #135
Momentum ControlMC #22 #74
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #59 #137
SP+SP+ #48 #132
Perf GradeGradeNRNR
OffenseOffNRNR
DefenseDefNRNR
Spec TeamsSTNRNR
TalentTal #93 #109
Blue ChipsBC% #81 #104
Toledo Notes
(2/6) HC Jacobs (Mercer) is 94-23 as a head coach
(2/6) OC Reisert was HC @ Gard Webb, DC from Mercer
(2/6) QB Khamoni Robinson from Lenoir-Rhyne as QB1?
(2/6) Jacobs brought 13 portals from Mercer w him
(2/6) RB CJ Miller (Mer) exp'd, there's depth here
(2/6) WR has parts, Dabbs (Mer) really productive
(2/6) OL has 6 w good exp & prod, 3 are FCS portals
(2/6) DTs light and inexp'd. DEs have played, but ?
(2/6) LB corp looks good, although depth is green
(2/6) DBs no clue, top 2 are FCS, not much exp after
Toledo Injury Report
Ball State Notes
(3/4) Vibes: If this team wins 2 games I'll be shocked
(3/4) QB Luster (Tx St) taken 6 snaps, most exp'd QB
(3/4) RB Horton has some exp, rough unit on paper
(3/4) WR 2 exp'd starters (meh), 4 portal adds
(3/4) OL looks OK, 4 very exp'd starters, tons of bodies
(3/4) Def 13 portals need to help, esp 4 on a rough DL
(3/4) This is the worst Def on paper I've seen this year
Ball State Injury Report
Toledo on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat
TOL OffBALL Def
Game ControlGC #100 #133
Momentum ControlMC #41 #38
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #53 #106
ExplosiveExp #76 #70
PPAPPA #63 #79
PowerPwr #68 #137
SP+SP+ #75 #115
Pts POPPO #55 #59
HavocHav #22 #105
Toledo Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat
TOL OffBALL Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #70 #112
Run ExplRExp #95 #100
PPAExp #64 #98
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #73 #83
Stuff RateStuff #86 #41
TackleTak - NR
Toledo Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 50%, Run: 49%
CategoryCat
TOL OffBALL Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #40 #97
Pass ExplPExl #62 #72
PPAExp #55 #93
Pass Rush/BlockP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #53 #99
DB HavocDB #11 #90
Ball State on Offense
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCatBALL OffTOL Def
Game ControlGC #135 #31
Momentum ControlMC #127 #16
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #136 #4
ExplosiveExp #38 #22
PPAPPA #134 #2
PowerPwr #132 #56
SP+SP+ #134 #21
Pts POPPO #132 #4
HavocHav #135 #5
Ball State Run Game
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat
BALL OffTOL Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #133 #29
Run ExplRExp #23 #22
PPAExp #111 #13
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #130 #7
Stuff RateStuff #123 #27
TackleTak - NR
Ball State Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCatBALL OffTOL Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #133 #1
Pass ExplPExl #64 #108
PPAExp #136 #1
Pass Block/RushP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #136 #7
DB HavocDB #42 #15
Program Comparison
BALL 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'26 Profile: Remains Poor G5

TOL 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'26 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Scheumann Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Previous Matchups
Toledo beat Ball State last year (38-9)
Toledo beat Ball State in 2023 (13-6)

  
TOL's OC Cris Reisert (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
John Alan Richter172568%153316.1
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
CJ Miller (Tr)168953145.779
Connor Walendzak329903.111
Michael Drennen II96006.715
Dane Nauman94004.412
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Adjatay Dabbs (Tr)45856819.084
Kalvin Gilbert46653714.265
CJ Miller (Tr)26314312.159
Peyton Strickland2422649.465

View Toledo's Full Roster

TOL's DC Jahmal Brown (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Armorion Smith (Tr)362001
Langston Long335000
Ezra Odinjor (Tr)283121
Nicholas Thompson242100
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ezra Odinjor (Tr)283121
Nicholas Thompson242100
Isaac Prince53100
Armorion Smith (Tr)362001
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Armorion Smith (Tr)362001
Dylan Hohler71011
Donovan Watkins (Tr)20001

BALL's OC Mike Uremovich (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Keldric Luster (Tr)1333%14004.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
TJ Horton6018003.013
Jalen Bonds277712.915
Johnny Thompson Jr. (Tr)197503.99
Elijah Jackson81702.17
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
CJ Nelson (Tr)22393317.975
Donovan Hamilton20244012.247
Jabari Smith15166311.137
TJ Horton157114.719

View Ball State's Full Roster

BALL's DC Jeff Knowles (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Willizhuan Yates320006
Tobi Adewoyin140000
Ameir Glenn133100
Deondre Shepherd131000
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Maverick Gracio (Tr)42121
Ameir Glenn133100
Jared Badie (Tr)82140
Ben Marsh72100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Willizhuan Yates320006
Maverick Gracio (Tr)42121
Ameir Glenn133100