Sat, Oct 3 2026
·
Week 5
·
🏟 Camp Randall Stadium
Madison, WI
·
Turf
·
80,321 cap
Michigan State✈ 250 mi-1 hr TZ
Preseason projection — This game has not yet been played and 2026 in-season data is not yet available.
Edges are based on 2025 full-season performance.
Confidence will increase once in-season games are logged.
Matchup Prediction
Michigan State
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Michigan State entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Michigan State wins
Lean
Game Control
58.3%
Michigan State wins
Lean
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Michigan State
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Michigan State 2026 Schedule
Michigan State's 2026 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/5 | Michigan State vs Toledo | -7.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/12 | Michigan State vs Eastern Michigan | -13.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/19 | Michigan State at Notre Dame | +29 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/26 | Michigan State vs Nebraska | +4.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/3 | Michigan State at Wisconsin | +4 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/10 | Michigan State vs Illinois | +7 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/17 | Michigan State vs Northwestern | +0 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/24 | Michigan State at UCLA | +9 | — | — | — | — |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/7 | Michigan State at Michigan | +20.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/14 | Michigan State vs Washington | +14 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/21 | Michigan State vs Oregon | +24.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/28 | Michigan State at Rutgers | +3 | — | — | — | — |
Wisconsin 2026 Schedule
Wisconsin's 2026 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 9/6 | Wisconsin vs Notre Dame | +16.5 | 46.5 | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/12 | Wisconsin vs Western Illinois | -24.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/19 | Wisconsin vs Eastern Michigan | -15.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/26 | Wisconsin at Penn State | +13.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/3 | Wisconsin vs Michigan State | -4 | — | — | — | — |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/17 | Wisconsin at UCLA | +7.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/24 | Wisconsin vs USC | +13.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/31 | Wisconsin at Iowa | +14 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/7 | Wisconsin vs Rutgers | -3.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/14 | Wisconsin at Maryland | +5.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/21 | Wisconsin at Purdue | -2 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/28 | Wisconsin vs Minnesota | +2 | — | — | — | — |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2025 season (prior year)
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Michigan State
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Michigan State
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Michigan State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season (prior year — 2026 data not yet available) ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Michigan State Edge
Michigan State +0.20
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 2025 full season · preseason estimate
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Michigan State Edge
Michigan State +10.7
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.3% of games historically
Based on 2025 full season · preseason estimate
Coaching Matchup
Michigan State
Pat Fitzgerald #32
0–0 (0%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Nick Sheridan
Yr 1
#35
DC
Joe Rossi
Yr 3
#50
Wisconsin
Luke Fickell #104
17–21 (45%)
· Yr 4 at school
OC
Jeff Grimes
Yr 2
#131
DC
Mike Tressel
Yr 3
#22
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓