Fri, Nov 27 2026
·
Week 13
·
🏟 Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
Oxford, MS
·
Turf
·
64,038 cap
Mississippi State✈ 75 miSame TZ
Preseason projection — This game has not yet been played and 2026 in-season data is not yet available.
Edges are based on 2025 full-season performance.
Confidence will increase once in-season games are logged.
Matchup Prediction
Ole Miss
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Ole Miss entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Ole Miss wins
Lean
Game Control
76%
Ole Miss wins
Strong
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Ole Miss
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Mississippi State 2026 Schedule
Mississippi State's 2026 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/5 | Mississippi State vs UL Monroe | -23 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/12 | Mississippi State at Minnesota | +5.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/19 | Mississippi State at South Carolina | +7 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/26 | Mississippi State vs Missouri | +10 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/3 | Mississippi State vs Alabama | +12.5 | — | — | — | — |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/17 | Mississippi State at LSU | +17.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/24 | Mississippi State vs Oklahoma | +15 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/31 | Mississippi State at Texas | +28 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/7 | Mississippi State vs Vanderbilt | +3.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/14 | Mississippi State vs Auburn | +5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/21 | Mississippi State vs Tennessee Tech | -24.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Fri 11/27 | Mississippi State at Ole Miss | +19 | — | — | — | — |
Ole Miss 2026 Schedule
Ole Miss's 2026 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/5 | Ole Miss vs Louisville | -8.5 | 52.5 | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/12 | Ole Miss vs Charlotte | -34 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/19 | Ole Miss vs LSU | -4 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/26 | Ole Miss at Florida | -8 | — | — | — | — |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/10 | Ole Miss at Vanderbilt | -8 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/17 | Ole Miss vs Missouri | -7 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/24 | Ole Miss at Texas | +11.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/31 | Ole Miss vs Auburn | -11.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/7 | Ole Miss vs Georgia | +6 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/14 | Ole Miss at Oklahoma | +3.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/21 | Ole Miss vs Wofford | -33 | — | — | — | — |
| Fri 11/27 | Ole Miss vs Mississippi State | -19 | — | — | — | — |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2025 season (prior year)
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Ole Miss
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Ole Miss
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Ole Miss
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season (prior year — 2026 data not yet available) ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Ole Miss Edge
Ole Miss +0.93
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 2025 full season · preseason estimate
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Ole Miss Edge
Ole Miss +22.4
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 2025 full season · preseason estimate
Coaching Matchup
Mississippi State
Jeff Lebby #116
7–18 (28%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Jeff Lebby
Yr 3
#41
DC
Zach Arnett
Yr 1
#53
Ole Miss
Pete Golding #77
2–1 (67%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
John David Baker
Yr 1
#16
DC
Patrick Toney
Yr 1
#49
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓