Sat, Oct 17 2026
·
Week 7
·
🏟 Tiger Stadium
Baton Rouge, LA
·
Turf
·
102,321 cap
Mississippi State✈ 252 miSame TZ
Preseason projection — This game has not yet been played and 2026 in-season data is not yet available.
Edges are based on 2025 full-season performance.
Confidence will increase once in-season games are logged.
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Mississippi State,
while Game Control favors LSU.
Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
61.3%
Mississippi State wins
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
LSU wins
Toss-up
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → LSU
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Mississippi State 2026 Schedule
Mississippi State's 2026 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/5 | Mississippi State vs UL Monroe | -23 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/12 | Mississippi State at Minnesota | +5.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/19 | Mississippi State at South Carolina | +7 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/26 | Mississippi State vs Missouri | +10 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/3 | Mississippi State vs Alabama | +12.5 | — | — | — | — |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/17 | Mississippi State at LSU | +17.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/24 | Mississippi State vs Oklahoma | +15 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/31 | Mississippi State at Texas | +28 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/7 | Mississippi State vs Vanderbilt | +3.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/14 | Mississippi State vs Auburn | +5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/21 | Mississippi State vs Tennessee Tech | -24.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Fri 11/27 | Mississippi State at Ole Miss | +19 | — | — | — | — |
LSU 2026 Schedule
LSU's 2026 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/5 | LSU vs Clemson | -11.5 | 51.5 | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/12 | LSU vs Louisiana Tech | -22 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/19 | LSU at Ole Miss | +4 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/26 | LSU vs Texas A&M | -1 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/3 | LSU vs McNeese | -32.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/10 | LSU at Kentucky | -12.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/17 | LSU vs Mississippi State | -17.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/24 | LSU at Auburn | -5 | — | — | — | — |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/7 | LSU vs Alabama | -2.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/14 | LSU vs Texas | +8 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/21 | LSU at Tennessee | +1 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/28 | LSU at Arkansas | -12 | — | — | — | — |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2025 season (prior year)
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ LSU
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season (prior year — 2026 data not yet available) ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Mississippi State Edge
Mississippi State +0.42
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 2025 full season · preseason estimate
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
LSU Edge
LSU +0.7
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 2025 full season · preseason estimate
Coaching Matchup
Mississippi State
Jeff Lebby #116
7–18 (28%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Jeff Lebby
Yr 3
#41
DC
Zach Arnett
Yr 1
#53
LSU
Lane Kiffin #11
0–0 (0%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Charlie Weis Jr.
Yr 1
#11
DC
Blake Baker
Yr 3
#32
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓