Sat, Oct 7 2023
·
Week 6
·
🏟 Ryan Field
Evanston, IL
·
Turf
·
47,130 cap
Howard✈ 600 mi-1 hr TZ
Preseason projection — This game has not yet been played and 2023 in-season data is not yet available.
Edges are based on 2022 full-season performance.
Confidence will increase once in-season games are logged.
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
58.3%
Howard wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Northwestern -23
O/U 51.0
William Hill (New Jersey)
Howard 2023 Schedule
Howard's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/1 | Howard at Eastern Michigan | +20.0L23–33 | 55.5 | L23–33 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/7 | Howard at Northwestern | +23.0L20–23 | 51.0 | L20–23 | U | Y |
Northwestern 2023 Schedule
Northwestern's 2023 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 9/3 | Northwestern at Rutgers | +5.0L7–24 | 39.0 | L7–24 | U | N |
| Sat 9/9 | Northwestern vs UTEP | -1.0W38–7 | 40.0 | W38–7 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/16 | Northwestern at Duke | +17.0L14–38 | 48.0 | L14–38 | O | N |
| Sat 9/23 | Northwestern vs Minnesota | +11.5W37–34 | 39.5 | W37–34 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/30 | Northwestern vs Penn State | +27.0L13–41 | 48.0 | L13–41 | O | N |
| Sat 10/7 | Northwestern vs Howard | -23.0W23–20 | 51.0 | W23–20 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/21 | Northwestern at Nebraska | +10.5L9–17 | 40.0 | L9–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/28 | Northwestern vs Maryland | +14.0W33–27 | 48.5 | W33–27 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/4 | Northwestern vs Iowa | +4.5L7–10 | 30.5 | L7–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/11 | Northwestern at Wisconsin | +9.5W24–10 | 43.5 | W24–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/18 | Northwestern vs Purdue | -2.5W23–15 | 47.5 | W23–15 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/25 | Northwestern at Illinois | +5.0W45–43 | 46.5 | W45–43 | O | Y |
| Sat 12/23 | Northwestern vs Utah | +6.5W14–7 | 44.5 | W14–7 | U | Y |
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Howard Edge
Howard +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 2022 full season · preseason estimate
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Howard Edge
Howard +6.5
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.3% of games historically
Based on 2022 full season · preseason estimate
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓