Sat, Nov 19 2022
·
Week 12
·
🏟 Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium
Memphis, TN
·
Turf
·
62,380 cap
North Alabama✈ 132 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
—
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Memphis -36
O/U 67.5
consensus
North Alabama 2022 Schedule
North Alabama's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/19 | North Alabama at Memphis | +36.0L0–59 | 67.5 | L0–59 | U | N |
Memphis 2022 Schedule
Memphis's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/3 | Memphis at Mississippi State | +17.0L23–49 | 58.0 | L23–49 | O | N |
| Sat 9/10 | Memphis at Navy | -4.5W37–13 | 47.5 | W37–13 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/17 | Memphis vs Arkansas State | -14.5W44–32 | 64.0 | W44–32 | O | N |
| Sat 9/24 | Memphis vs North Texas | -13.0W44–34 | 68.5 | W44–34 | O | N |
| Sat 10/1 | Memphis vs Temple | -18.5W24–3 | 50.0 | W24–3 | U | Y |
| Fri 10/7 | Memphis vs Houston | -1.5L32–33 | 57.5 | L32–33 | O | N |
| Sat 10/15 | Memphis at East Carolina | +5.5L45–47 | 62.5 | L45–47 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/22 | Memphis at Tulane | +7.0L28–38 | 55.5 | L28–38 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/5 | Memphis vs UCF | +3.0L28–35 | 60.5 | L28–35 | O | N |
| Thu 11/10 | Memphis vs Tulsa | -7.0W26–10 | 62.0 | W26–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/19 | Memphis vs North Alabama | -36.0W59–0 | 67.5 | W59–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/26 | Memphis at SMU | +4.5L31–34 | 69.0 | L31–34 | U | Y |
| Tue 12/27 | Memphis vs Utah State | -8.0W38–10 | 57.0 | W38–10 | U | Y |
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
North Alabama Edge
North Alabama +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
North Alabama Edge
North Alabama +0.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Memphis
3 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Memphis
97.8 — 0.1 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Memphis won by 59
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Memphis, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓