Fri, Sep 2 2022
·
Week 1
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🏟 Brigham Field at Huskie Stadium
DeKalb, IL
·
Turf
·
23,595 cap
Eastern Illinois✈ 172 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
—
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Northern Illinois -35
O/U 55.5
consensus
Eastern Illinois 2022 Schedule
Eastern Illinois's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 9/1 | Eastern Illinois at Northern Illinois | +35.0L27–34 | 55.5 | L27–34 | O | Y |
Northern Illinois 2022 Schedule
Northern Illinois's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 9/1 | Northern Illinois vs Eastern Illinois | -35.0W34–27 | 55.5 | W34–27 | O | N |
| Sat 9/10 | Northern Illinois at Tulsa | +6.5L35–38 | 63.0 | L35–38 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/17 | Northern Illinois vs Vanderbilt | -2.5L28–38 | 58.5 | L28–38 | O | N |
| Sat 9/24 | Northern Illinois at Kentucky | +27.0L23–31 | 52.5 | L23–31 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/1 | Northern Illinois at Ball State | -3.5L38–44 | 58.5 | L38–44 | O | N |
| Sat 10/8 | Northern Illinois vs Toledo | +6.5L32–52 | 59.0 | L32–52 | O | N |
| Sat 10/15 | Northern Illinois at Eastern Michigan | +3.5W39–10 | 64.5 | W39–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/22 | Northern Illinois at Ohio | -2.5L17–24 | 65.5 | L17–24 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Wed 11/2 | Northern Illinois vs Central Michigan | -4.5L22–35 | 54.0 | L22–35 | O | N |
| Wed 11/9 | Northern Illinois at Western Michigan | -1.0W24–21 | 49.0 | W24–21 | U | Y |
| Wed 11/16 | Northern Illinois vs Miami (OH) | -1.0L23–29 | 44.0 | L23–29 | O | N |
| Sat 11/26 | Northern Illinois vs Akron | -9.5L12–44 | 51.5 | L12–44 | O | N |
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Eastern Illinois Edge
Eastern Illinois +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Eastern Illinois Edge
Eastern Illinois +0.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Northern Illinois
1 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Northern Illinois
98.4 — 0.6 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Northern Illinois won by 7
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Northern Illinois, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓