Sat, Oct 8 2022
·
Week 6
·
🏟 BB&T Field
Winston-Salem, NC
·
Turf
·
31,500 cap
Army✈ 496 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Wake Forest
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Wake Forest entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Wake Forest wins
Lean
Game Control
67.1%
Wake Forest wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Wake Forest -16
O/U 65.5
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
Advanced factors are split · No strong agreement signal
↓ See full breakdown
Army 2022 Schedule
Army's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/3 | Army at Coastal Carolina | +1.5L28–38 | 54.0 | L28–38 | O | N |
| Sat 9/10 | Army vs UTSA | +2.0L38–41 | 54.0 | L38–41 | O | N |
| Sat 9/17 | Army vs Villanova | -14.0W49–10 | 56.0 | W49–10 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/1 | Army vs Georgia State | -8.5L14–31 | 54.0 | L14–31 | U | N |
| Sat 10/8 | Army at Wake Forest | +16.0L10–45 | 65.5 | L10–45 | U | N |
| Sat 10/15 | Army vs Colgate | -31.0W42–17 | 51.0 | W42–17 | O | N |
| Sat 10/22 | Army vs UL Monroe | -6.5W48–24 | 55.5 | W48–24 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/5 | Army vs Air Force | +7.0L7–13 | 40.5 | L7–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/12 | Army at Troy | +8.5L9–10 | 45.5 | L9–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/19 | Army vs UConn | -10.5W34–17 | 45.0 | W34–17 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/26 | Army at Massachusetts | -20.0W44–7 | 45.5 | W44–7 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 12/10 | Army vs Navy | +2.5W20–17 | 32.0 | W20–17 | O | Y |
Wake Forest 2022 Schedule
Wake Forest's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 9/1 | Wake Forest vs VMI | -33.5W44–10 | 66.5 | W44–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/10 | Wake Forest at Vanderbilt | -13.5W45–25 | 65.5 | W45–25 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/17 | Wake Forest vs Liberty | -17.5W37–36 | 64.0 | W37–36 | O | N |
| Sat 9/24 | Wake Forest vs Clemson | +7.5L45–51 | 58.0 | L45–51 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/1 | Wake Forest at Florida State | +6.0W31–21 | 67.0 | W31–21 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/8 | Wake Forest vs Army | -16.0W45–10 | 65.5 | W45–10 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/22 | Wake Forest vs Boston College | -20.0W43–15 | 60.0 | W43–15 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/29 | Wake Forest at Louisville | -3.0L21–48 | 66.5 | L21–48 | O | N |
| Sat 11/5 | Wake Forest at NC State | -3.0L21–30 | 54.0 | L21–30 | U | N |
| Sat 11/12 | Wake Forest vs North Carolina | -4.5L34–36 | 79.0 | L34–36 | U | N |
| Sat 11/19 | Wake Forest vs Syracuse | -9.5W45–35 | 58.5 | W45–35 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/26 | Wake Forest at Duke | -3.0L31–34 | 67.0 | L31–34 | U | N |
| Fri 12/23 | Wake Forest vs Missouri | -3.0W27–17 | 59.0 | W27–17 | U | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2022 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2022 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Wake Forest Edge
Wake Forest +0.58
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Wake Forest Edge
Wake Forest +20.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 67.1% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Wake Forest
3 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Wake Forest
96.4 — 1.5 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Wake Forest won by 35
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Wake Forest with a solid GC edge. Teams with this profile have covered 53.0% of the time historically (n=330) — a mild lean.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Army
Jeff Monken #1
58–42 (58%)
· Yr 9 at school
OC
Brent Davis
Yr 2
#1
DC
Nate Woody
Yr 2
#1
Wake Forest
Dave Clawson #1
51–48 (52%)
· Yr 9 at school
OC
Warren Ruggiero
Yr 2
#1
DC
Brad Lambert
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓