Fri, Sep 2 2022
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Week 1
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🏟 Sun Devil Stadium
Tempe, AZ
·
Turf
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56,232 cap
Northern Arizona✈ 122 miSame TZ
Preseason projection — This game has not yet been played and 2022 in-season data is not yet available.
Edges are based on 2021 full-season performance.
Confidence will increase once in-season games are logged.
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
76%
Arizona State wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Arizona State -25.5
O/U 52.5
consensus
Northern Arizona 2022 Schedule
Northern Arizona's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 9/1 | Northern Arizona at Arizona State | +25.5L3–40 | 52.5 | L3–40 | U | N |
Arizona State 2022 Schedule
Arizona State's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 9/1 | Arizona State vs Northern Arizona | -25.5W40–3 | 52.5 | W40–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/10 | Arizona State at Oklahoma State | +12.0L17–34 | 58.5 | L17–34 | U | N |
| Sat 9/17 | Arizona State vs Eastern Michigan | -20.5L21–30 | 56.5 | L21–30 | U | N |
| Sat 9/24 | Arizona State vs Utah | +16.5L13–34 | 54.0 | L13–34 | U | N |
| Sat 10/1 | Arizona State at USC | +24.5L25–42 | 61.0 | L25–42 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/8 | Arizona State vs Washington | +13.5W45–38 | 56.0 | W45–38 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/22 | Arizona State at Stanford | +3.0L14–15 | 52.0 | L14–15 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/29 | Arizona State at Colorado | -13.0W42–34 | 49.0 | W42–34 | O | N |
| Sat 11/5 | Arizona State vs UCLA | +11.0L36–50 | 66.5 | L36–50 | O | N |
| Sat 11/12 | Arizona State at Washington State | +9.5L18–28 | 59.5 | L18–28 | U | N |
| Sat 11/19 | Arizona State vs Oregon State | +7.5L7–31 | 53.5 | L7–31 | U | N |
| Fri 11/25 | Arizona State at Arizona | +4.0L35–38 | 66.5 | L35–38 | O | Y |
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Northern Arizona Edge
Northern Arizona +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 2021 full season · preseason estimate
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Arizona State Edge
Arizona State +35.3
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 2021 full season · preseason estimate
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓