Sat, Oct 22 2022
·
Week 8
·
🏟 Stanford Stadium
Stanford, CA
·
Turf
·
50,424 cap
Arizona State✈ 638 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Stanford
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Stanford entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Stanford wins
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
Stanford wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Stanford -3
O/U 52.0
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Arizona State
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Arizona State 2022 Schedule
Arizona State's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 9/1 | Arizona State vs Northern Arizona | -25.5W40–3 | 52.5 | W40–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/10 | Arizona State at Oklahoma State | +12.0L17–34 | 58.5 | L17–34 | U | N |
| Sat 9/17 | Arizona State vs Eastern Michigan | -20.5L21–30 | 56.5 | L21–30 | U | N |
| Sat 9/24 | Arizona State vs Utah | +16.5L13–34 | 54.0 | L13–34 | U | N |
| Sat 10/1 | Arizona State at USC | +24.5L25–42 | 61.0 | L25–42 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/8 | Arizona State vs Washington | +13.5W45–38 | 56.0 | W45–38 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/22 | Arizona State at Stanford | +3.0L14–15 | 52.0 | L14–15 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/29 | Arizona State at Colorado | -13.0W42–34 | 49.0 | W42–34 | O | N |
| Sat 11/5 | Arizona State vs UCLA | +11.0L36–50 | 66.5 | L36–50 | O | N |
| Sat 11/12 | Arizona State at Washington State | +9.5L18–28 | 59.5 | L18–28 | U | N |
| Sat 11/19 | Arizona State vs Oregon State | +7.5L7–31 | 53.5 | L7–31 | U | N |
| Fri 11/25 | Arizona State at Arizona | +4.0L35–38 | 66.5 | L35–38 | O | Y |
Stanford 2022 Schedule
Stanford's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/3 | Stanford vs Colgate | -40.0W41–10 | 51.5 | W41–10 | U | N |
| Sat 9/10 | Stanford vs USC | +9.5L28–41 | 66.5 | L28–41 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/24 | Stanford at Washington | +14.0L22–40 | 62.5 | L22–40 | U | N |
| Sat 10/1 | Stanford at Oregon | +17.0L27–45 | 63.0 | L27–45 | O | N |
| Sat 10/8 | Stanford vs Oregon State | +4.5L27–28 | 53.0 | L27–28 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/15 | Stanford at Notre Dame | +16.5W16–14 | 53.5 | W16–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/22 | Stanford vs Arizona State | -3.0W15–14 | 52.0 | W15–14 | U | N |
| Sat 10/29 | Stanford at UCLA | +16.5L13–38 | 64.5 | L13–38 | U | N |
| Sat 11/5 | Stanford vs Washington State | +3.0L14–52 | 48.5 | L14–52 | O | N |
| Sat 11/12 | Stanford at Utah | +23.5L7–42 | 54.0 | L7–42 | U | N |
| Sat 11/19 | Stanford at California | +5.0L20–27 | 46.0 | L20–27 | O | N |
| Sat 11/26 | Stanford vs BYU | +6.0L26–35 | 57.5 | L26–35 | O | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2022 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Arizona State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2022 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Stanford Edge
Stanford +0.20
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Stanford Edge
Stanford +1.9
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Stanford
2 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Arizona State
24.4 — 52.4 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Stanford won by 1
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Stanford, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Arizona State
Herm Edwards #1
25–18 (58%)
· Yr 5 at school
OC
Glenn Thomas
Yr 1
#1
DC
Donnie Henderson
Yr 1
#1
Stanford
David Shaw #1
93–45 (67%)
· Yr 12 at school
OC
Tavita Pritchard
Yr 2
#1
DC
Lance Anderson
Yr 2
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓