Sun, Nov 13 2022
·
Week 11
·
🏟 Autzen Stadium
Eugene, OR
·
Turf
·
54,000 cap
Washington✈ 250 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Oregon
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Oregon entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Oregon wins
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
Oregon wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Oregon -12
O/U 73.0
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Oregon
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Washington 2022 Schedule
Washington's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/3 | Washington vs Kent State | -23.5W45–20 | 61.5 | W45–20 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/10 | Washington vs Portland State | -31.0W52–6 | 55.0 | W52–6 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/17 | Washington vs Michigan State | -3.5W39–28 | 56.5 | W39–28 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/24 | Washington vs Stanford | -14.0W40–22 | 62.5 | W40–22 | U | Y |
| Fri 9/30 | Washington at UCLA | -2.5L32–40 | 65.0 | L32–40 | O | N |
| Sat 10/8 | Washington at Arizona State | -13.5L38–45 | 56.0 | L38–45 | O | N |
| Sat 10/15 | Washington vs Arizona | -14.5W49–39 | 71.5 | W49–39 | O | N |
| Sat 10/22 | Washington at California | -7.5W28–21 | 54.5 | W28–21 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Fri 11/4 | Washington vs Oregon State | -4.5W24–21 | 53.5 | W24–21 | U | N |
| Sat 11/12 | Washington at Oregon | +12.0W37–34 | 73.0 | W37–34 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/19 | Washington vs Colorado | -30.5W54–7 | 61.5 | W54–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/26 | Washington at Washington State | -2.0W51–33 | 60.0 | W51–33 | O | Y |
| Thu 12/29 | Washington vs Texas | +3.0W27–20 | 67.0 | W27–20 | U | Y |
Oregon 2022 Schedule
Oregon's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/3 | Oregon vs Georgia | +16.0L3–49 | 54.5 | L3–49 | U | N |
| Sat 9/10 | Oregon vs Eastern Washington | -27.5W70–14 | 69.5 | W70–14 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/17 | Oregon vs BYU | -3.5W41–20 | 58.0 | W41–20 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/24 | Oregon at Washington State | -6.0W44–41 | 57.0 | W44–41 | O | N |
| Sat 10/1 | Oregon vs Stanford | -17.0W45–27 | 63.0 | W45–27 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/8 | Oregon at Arizona | -13.5W49–22 | 70.5 | W49–22 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/22 | Oregon vs UCLA | -7.0W45–30 | 70.5 | W45–30 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/29 | Oregon at California | -16.5W42–24 | 56.5 | W42–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/5 | Oregon at Colorado | -31.0W49–10 | 62.5 | W49–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/12 | Oregon vs Washington | -12.0L34–37 | 73.0 | L34–37 | U | N |
| Sat 11/19 | Oregon vs Utah | +2.5W20–17 | 60.0 | W20–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/26 | Oregon at Oregon State | +1.0L34–38 | 57.0 | L34–38 | O | N |
| Wed 12/28 | Oregon vs North Carolina | -13.0W28–27 | 76.0 | W28–27 | U | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2022 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Oregon
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2022 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Oregon Edge
Oregon +0.38
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Oregon Edge
Oregon +3.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Tie
1 — 1 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Oregon
49.4 — 26.0 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Washington won by 3
✗ Model missed it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Oregon, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Washington
Kalen DeBoer #1
0–0 (0%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Ryan Grubb
Yr 1
#1
DC
William Inge
Yr 1
#1
Oregon
Dan Lanning #1
0–0 (0%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Kenny Dillingham
Yr 1
#1
DC
Tosh Lupoi
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓