Sat, Sep 24 2022
·
Week 4
·
🏟 Martin Stadium
Pullman, WA
·
Turf
·
32,248 cap
Oregon✈ 340 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Oregon,
while Game Control favors Washington State.
Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
61.3%
Oregon wins
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
Washington State wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Oregon -6
O/U 57.0
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Oregon
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Oregon 2022 Schedule
Oregon's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/3 | Oregon vs Georgia | +16.0L3–49 | 54.5 | L3–49 | U | N |
| Sat 9/10 | Oregon vs Eastern Washington | -27.5W70–14 | 69.5 | W70–14 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/17 | Oregon vs BYU | -3.5W41–20 | 58.0 | W41–20 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/24 | Oregon at Washington State | -6.0W44–41 | 57.0 | W44–41 | O | N |
| Sat 10/1 | Oregon vs Stanford | -17.0W45–27 | 63.0 | W45–27 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/8 | Oregon at Arizona | -13.5W49–22 | 70.5 | W49–22 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/22 | Oregon vs UCLA | -7.0W45–30 | 70.5 | W45–30 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/29 | Oregon at California | -16.5W42–24 | 56.5 | W42–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/5 | Oregon at Colorado | -31.0W49–10 | 62.5 | W49–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/12 | Oregon vs Washington | -12.0L34–37 | 73.0 | L34–37 | U | N |
| Sat 11/19 | Oregon vs Utah | +2.5W20–17 | 60.0 | W20–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/26 | Oregon at Oregon State | +1.0L34–38 | 57.0 | L34–38 | O | N |
| Wed 12/28 | Oregon vs North Carolina | -13.0W28–27 | 76.0 | W28–27 | U | N |
Washington State 2022 Schedule
Washington State's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/3 | Washington State vs Idaho | -28.5W24–17 | 63.5 | W24–17 | U | N |
| Sat 9/10 | Washington State at Wisconsin | +17.5W17–14 | 48.5 | W17–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/17 | Washington State vs Colorado State | -17.0W38–7 | 51.5 | W38–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/24 | Washington State vs Oregon | +6.0L41–44 | 57.0 | L41–44 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/1 | Washington State vs California | -4.0W28–9 | 52.5 | W28–9 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/8 | Washington State at USC | +12.5L14–30 | 64.5 | L14–30 | U | N |
| Sat 10/15 | Washington State at Oregon State | +3.0L10–24 | 51.5 | L10–24 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Thu 10/27 | Washington State vs Utah | +7.5L17–21 | 56.5 | L17–21 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/5 | Washington State at Stanford | -3.0W52–14 | 48.5 | W52–14 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/12 | Washington State vs Arizona State | -9.5W28–18 | 59.5 | W28–18 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/19 | Washington State at Arizona | -4.0W31–20 | 63.0 | W31–20 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/26 | Washington State vs Washington | +2.0L33–51 | 60.0 | L33–51 | O | N |
| Sat 12/17 | Washington State vs Fresno State | +5.5L6–29 | 54.0 | L6–29 | U | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2022 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Oregon
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2022 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Oregon Edge
Oregon +0.50
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Washington State Edge
Washington State +2.8
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Oregon
1 — 2 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Washington State
55.4 — 20.3 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Oregon won by 3
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Oregon
Dan Lanning #1
0–0 (0%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Kenny Dillingham
Yr 1
#1
DC
Tosh Lupoi
Yr 1
#1
Washington State
Jake Dickert #1
3–3 (50%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Eric Morris
Yr 1
#1
DC
Brian Ward
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓