Sat, Oct 2 2021
·
Week 5
·
🏟 California Memorial Stadium
Berkeley, CA
·
Turf
·
62,717 cap
Washington State✈ 664 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Washington State
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Washington State entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Washington State wins
Lean
Game Control
58.3%
Washington State wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
California -7.5
O/U 52.5
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → California
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Washington State 2021 Schedule
Washington State's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | Washington State vs Utah State | -17.5L23–26 | 66.5 | L23–26 | U | N |
| Sat 9/11 | Washington State vs Portland State | -31.0W44–24 | 65.5 | W44–24 | O | N |
| Sat 9/18 | Washington State vs USC | +7.0L14–45 | 61.0 | L14–45 | U | N |
| Sat 9/25 | Washington State at Utah | +15.0L13–24 | 53.5 | L13–24 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/2 | Washington State at California | +7.5W21–6 | 52.5 | W21–6 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/9 | Washington State vs Oregon State | +4.0W31–24 | 59.0 | W31–24 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/16 | Washington State vs Stanford | -1.0W34–31 | 53.0 | W34–31 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/23 | Washington State vs BYU | +3.5L19–21 | 56.5 | L19–21 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/30 | Washington State at Arizona State | +16.5W34–21 | 55.5 | W34–21 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/13 | Washington State at Oregon | +13.0L24–38 | 58.0 | L24–38 | O | N |
| Fri 11/19 | Washington State vs Arizona | -15.0W44–18 | 52.5 | W44–18 | O | Y |
| Fri 11/26 | Washington State at Washington | +1.0W40–13 | 45.0 | W40–13 | O | Y |
| Fri 12/31 | Washington State vs Central Michigan | -5.5L21–24 | 56.0 | L21–24 | U | N |
California 2021 Schedule
California's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | California vs Nevada | -2.5L17–22 | 52.5 | L17–22 | U | N |
| Sat 9/11 | California at TCU | +11.5L32–34 | 46.5 | L32–34 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/18 | California vs Sacramento State | -24.5W42–30 | 49.0 | W42–30 | O | N |
| Sat 9/25 | California at Washington | +7.5L24–31 | 47.5 | L24–31 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/2 | California vs Washington State | -7.5L6–21 | 52.5 | L6–21 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Fri 10/15 | California at Oregon | +13.5L17–24 | 53.5 | L17–24 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/23 | California vs Colorado | -8.0W26–3 | 44.0 | W26–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/30 | California vs Oregon State | +2.5W39–25 | 56.5 | W39–25 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/6 | California at Arizona | -7.0L3–10 | 47.0 | L3–10 | U | N |
| Sat 11/13 | California vs USC | +2.0 | 52.5 | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/20 | California at Stanford | -2.5W41–11 | 46.0 | W41–11 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/27 | California at UCLA | +6.5L14–42 | 58.5 | L14–42 | U | N |
| Sat 12/4 | California vs USC | -4.5W24–14 | 57.5 | W24–14 | U | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2021 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ California
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Washington State Edge
Washington State +0.33
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Washington State Edge
Washington State +8.7
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.3% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Washington State. Teams with this edge profile have covered 50.3% historically — essentially a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Washington State
Nick Rolovich #1
2–5 (29%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Craig Stutzmann
Yr 1
#1
DC
Jake Dickert
Yr 1
#1
California
Justin Wilcox #1
22–23 (49%)
· Yr 5 at school
OC
Bill Musgrave
Yr 1
#1
DC
Peter Sirmon
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓