Sun, Sep 19 2021
·
Week 3
·
🏟 LaVell Edwards Stadium
Provo, UT
·
Turf
·
63,725 cap
Arizona State✈ 472 mi+1 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
Arizona State
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Arizona State entering this game.
Momentum Control
80.6%
Arizona State wins
Strong
Game Control
64.9%
Arizona State wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Arizona State -3.5
O/U 50.5
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Arizona State
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Arizona State 2021 Schedule
Arizona State's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 9/2 | Arizona State vs Southern Utah | -44.5W41–14 | 56.5 | W41–14 | U | N |
| Sat 9/11 | Arizona State vs UNLV | -34.5W37–10 | 55.5 | W37–10 | U | N |
| Sat 9/18 | Arizona State at BYU | -3.5L17–27 | 50.5 | L17–27 | U | N |
| Sat 9/25 | Arizona State vs Colorado | -13.5W35–13 | 45.5 | W35–13 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/2 | Arizona State at UCLA | +3.0W42–23 | 56.5 | W42–23 | O | Y |
| Fri 10/8 | Arizona State vs Stanford | -13.5W28–10 | 53.5 | W28–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/16 | Arizona State at Utah | +1.0L21–35 | 51.0 | L21–35 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/30 | Arizona State vs Washington State | -16.5L21–34 | 55.5 | L21–34 | U | N |
| Sat 11/6 | Arizona State vs USC | -10.0W31–16 | 61.0 | W31–16 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/13 | Arizona State at Washington | -6.0W35–30 | 45.5 | W35–30 | O | N |
| Sat 11/20 | Arizona State at Oregon State | -2.5L10–24 | 59.0 | L10–24 | U | N |
| Sat 11/27 | Arizona State vs Arizona | -20.0W38–15 | 52.5 | W38–15 | O | Y |
| Thu 12/30 | Arizona State vs Wisconsin | +8.5L13–20 | 42.5 | L13–20 | U | Y |
BYU 2021 Schedule
BYU's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | BYU vs Arizona | -13.5W24–16 | 54.0 | W24–16 | U | N |
| Sat 9/11 | BYU vs Utah | +7.0W26–17 | 50.0 | W26–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/18 | BYU vs Arizona State | +3.5W27–17 | 50.5 | W27–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/25 | BYU vs South Florida | -23.5W35–27 | 54.5 | W35–27 | O | N |
| Fri 10/1 | BYU at Utah State | -9.0W34–20 | 66.0 | W34–20 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/9 | BYU vs Boise State | -6.0L17–26 | 58.0 | L17–26 | U | N |
| Sat 10/16 | BYU at Baylor | +5.5L24–38 | 52.5 | L24–38 | O | N |
| Sat 10/23 | BYU at Washington State | -3.5W21–19 | 56.5 | W21–19 | U | N |
| Sat 10/30 | BYU vs Virginia | -2.5W66–49 | 66.5 | W66–49 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/6 | BYU vs Idaho State | -36.5W59–14 | 55.0 | W59–14 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/20 | BYU at Georgia Southern | -20.0W34–17 | 57.0 | W34–17 | U | N |
| Sat 11/27 | BYU at USC | -8.5W35–31 | 65.5 | W35–31 | O | N |
| Sat 12/18 | BYU vs UAB | -7.0L28–31 | 54.5 | L28–31 | O | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2021 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Arizona State
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Arizona State
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Arizona State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Arizona State Edge
Arizona State +2.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 80.6% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Arizona State Edge
Arizona State +17.2
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 64.9% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Tie
1 — 1 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
BYU
66.6 — 15.5 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
BYU won by 10
✗ Model missed it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Arizona State with a solid GC edge. Teams with this profile have covered 53.0% of the time historically (n=330) — a mild lean.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Arizona State
Herm Edwards #1
19–14 (58%)
· Yr 4 at school
OC
Zak Hill
Yr 1
#1
DC
Antonio Pierce
Yr 1
#1
BYU
Kalani Sitake #1
41–26 (61%)
· Yr 6 at school
OC
Aaron Roderick
Yr 1
#1
DC
Ilaisa Tuiaki
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓