Sat, Nov 27 2021
·
Week 13
·
🏟 Michigan Stadium
Ann Arbor, MI
·
Turf
·
107,601 cap
Ohio State✈ 160 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Ohio State
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Ohio State entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Ohio State wins
Lean
Game Control
49.4%
Ohio State wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Ohio State -6.5
O/U 63.5
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Ohio State
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Ohio State 2021 Schedule
Ohio State's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 9/2 | Ohio State at Minnesota | -14.0W45–31 | 62.0 | W45–31 | O | N |
| Sat 9/11 | Ohio State vs Oregon | -14.5L28–35 | 65.0 | L28–35 | U | N |
| Sat 9/18 | Ohio State vs Tulsa | -24.5W41–20 | 60.5 | W41–20 | O | N |
| Sat 9/25 | Ohio State vs Akron | -48.5W59–7 | 66.5 | W59–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/2 | Ohio State at Rutgers | -15.0W52–13 | 58.0 | W52–13 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/9 | Ohio State vs Maryland | -22.0W66–17 | 71.5 | W66–17 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/23 | Ohio State at Indiana | -21.0W54–7 | 59.0 | W54–7 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/30 | Ohio State vs Penn State | -18.5W33–24 | 60.5 | W33–24 | U | N |
| Sat 11/6 | Ohio State at Nebraska | -14.0W26–17 | 68.5 | W26–17 | U | N |
| Sat 11/13 | Ohio State vs Purdue | -19.0W59–31 | 65.5 | W59–31 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/20 | Ohio State vs Michigan State | -19.5W56–7 | 70.5 | W56–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/27 | Ohio State at Michigan | -6.5L27–42 | 63.5 | L27–42 | O | N |
| Sat 1/1 | Ohio State vs Utah | -4.5W48–45 | 64.5 | W48–45 | O | N |
Michigan 2021 Schedule
Michigan's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | Michigan vs Western Michigan | -16.5W47–14 | 65.5 | W47–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/11 | Michigan vs Washington | -6.5W31–10 | 47.5 | W31–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/18 | Michigan vs Northern Illinois | -27.5W63–10 | 54.5 | W63–10 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/25 | Michigan vs Rutgers | -20.0W20–13 | 50.0 | W20–13 | U | N |
| Sat 10/2 | Michigan at Wisconsin | +2.0W38–17 | 43.5 | W38–17 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/9 | Michigan at Nebraska | -2.5W32–29 | 50.5 | W32–29 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/23 | Michigan vs Northwestern | -23.5W33–7 | 51.5 | W33–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/30 | Michigan at Michigan State | -4.0L33–37 | 50.5 | L33–37 | O | N |
| Sat 11/6 | Michigan vs Indiana | -20.5W29–7 | 51.0 | W29–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/13 | Michigan at Penn State | -2.5W21–17 | 48.0 | W21–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/20 | Michigan at Maryland | -16.0W59–18 | 58.5 | W59–18 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/27 | Michigan vs Ohio State | +6.5W42–27 | 63.5 | W42–27 | O | Y |
| Sat 12/4 | Michigan vs Iowa | -12.0W42–3 | 43.5 | W42–3 | O | Y |
| Fri 12/31 | Michigan vs Georgia | +7.5L11–34 | 47.0 | L11–34 | U | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2021 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Ohio State
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Ohio State
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Ohio State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Ohio State Edge
Ohio State +0.64
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Ohio State Edge
Ohio State +0.3
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 49.4% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Michigan
1 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Michigan
56.7 — 18.6 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Michigan won by 15
✗ Model missed it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Ohio State, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Ohio State
Ryan Day #1
25–3 (89%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Kevin Wilson
Yr 1
#1
DC
Kerry Coombs
Yr 1
#1
Michigan
Jim Harbaugh #1
52–22 (70%)
· Yr 7 at school
OC
Josh Gattis
Yr 1
#1
DC
Mike Macdonald
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓