Florida Atlantic at Western Kentucky Week 12 College Football Matchup Florida Atlantic at Western Kentucky Matchup - Week 12
Sat, Nov 20 2021 · Week 12 · 🏟 Houchens Industries-L. T. Smith Stadium Bowling Green, KY · Turf · 22,113 cap
Florida Atlantic✈ 822 mi-1 hr TZ
17 52
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Florida Atlantic
21
Western Kentucky
42
P&R Line Western Kentucky -21
P&R Total O/U 63
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Western Kentucky -11.5 · O/U 64.0
Matchup Prediction
Western Kentucky has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Western Kentucky entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Western Kentucky wins
Lean
Game Control
58.6%
Western Kentucky wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Western Kentucky -11.5
O/U 64.0
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Western Kentucky · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
🚌 Florida Atlantic 2nd straight Road Game
Florida Atlantic 2021 Schedule
Florida Atlantic's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/4Florida Atlantic at Florida+23.5L14–3551.5L14–35UY
Sat 9/11Florida Atlantic vs Georgia Southern-6.5W38–648.5W38–6UY
Sat 9/18Florida Atlantic vs Fordham-31.0W45–1451.5W45–14ON
Sat 9/25Florida Atlantic at Air Force+3.5L7–3154.0L7–31UN
Sat 10/2Florida Atlantic vs Florida International-10.5W58–2152.0W58–21OY
Sat 10/9Florida Atlantic at UAB+3.5L14–3148.5L14–31UN
— Bye Week —
Thu 10/21Florida Atlantic at Charlotte-6.5W38–958.0W38–9UY
Sat 10/30Florida Atlantic vs UTEP-11.0W28–2549.0W28–25ON
Sat 11/6Florida Atlantic vs Marshall+1.0L13–2858.0L13–28UN
Sat 11/13Florida Atlantic at Old Dominion-6.5L16–3048.0L16–30UN
Sat 11/20Florida Atlantic at Western Kentucky+11.5L17–5264.0L17–52ON
Sat 11/27Florida Atlantic vs Middle Tennessee-3.5L17–2749.5L17–27UN
Western Kentucky 2021 Schedule
Western Kentucky's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 9/2Western Kentucky vs UT Martin-24.0W59–2158.5W59–21OY
Sat 9/11Western Kentucky at Army+6.0L35–3852.0L35–38OY
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/25Western Kentucky vs Indiana+9.5L31–3362.5L31–33OY
Sat 10/2Western Kentucky at Michigan State+10.5L31–4866.5L31–48ON
Sat 10/9Western Kentucky vs UTSA-3.5L46–5271.0L46–52ON
Sat 10/16Western Kentucky at Old Dominion-13.5W43–2066.5W43–20UY
Sat 10/23Western Kentucky at Florida International-16.5W34–1978.0W34–19UN
Sat 10/30Western Kentucky vs Charlotte-19.5W45–1371.5W45–13UY
Sat 11/6Western Kentucky vs Middle Tennessee-17.5W48–2166.5W48–21OY
Sat 11/13Western Kentucky at Rice-19.0W42–2161.0W42–21OY
Sat 11/20Western Kentucky vs Florida Atlantic-11.5W52–1764.0W52–17OY
Sat 11/27Western Kentucky at Marshall-1.0W53–2175.5W53–21UY
Fri 12/3Western Kentucky at UTSA-3.0L41–4974.5L41–49ON
Sat 12/18Western Kentucky vs App State+3.0W59–3867.0W59–38OY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2021 season
Western Kentucky PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Western Kentucky
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Western Kentucky
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Western Kentucky
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Florida Atlantic
+0.434
Western Kentucky
+0.592
Western Kentucky Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Florida Atlantic
+0.589
Western Kentucky
+0.725
Western Kentucky Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Florida Atlantic
0.170
Western Kentucky
0.177
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Western Kentucky Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Florida Atlantic
+7.700
Western Kentucky
+8.114
Western Kentucky Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Florida Atlantic
+0.868
Western Kentucky
+0.929
Western Kentucky Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Florida Atlantic
71.7
Western Kentucky
68.7
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Western Kentucky Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Western Kentucky Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Florida Atlantic
-6.5
Western Kentucky
-5.5
Offense Rating
Florida Atlantic
11.5
Western Kentucky
11.9
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Florida Atlantic
18.0
Western Kentucky
17.3
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Western Kentucky Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Florida Atlantic #110
1.11
Western Kentucky #1
2.10
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Florida Atlantic #84
0.56
Western Kentucky #47
0.80
Western Kentucky +0.99
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Western Kentucky Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Florida Atlantic #1
45.0
Western Kentucky #1
55.6
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Florida Atlantic #72
39.7
Western Kentucky #54
37.3
Western Kentucky +10.6
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.6% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Western Kentucky
4 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Western Kentucky
95.7 — 2.8 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Western Kentucky won by 35
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Western Kentucky. Teams with this edge profile have covered 50.3% historically — essentially a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Florida Atlantic
Willie Taggart #1
7–5 (58%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Mike Johnson Yr 1 #1
DC Mike Stoops Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Western Kentucky
Tyson Helton #1
15–12 (56%) · Yr 3 at school
OC Zach Kittley Yr 1 #1
DC Maurice Crum Jr. Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself