Sat, Sep 11 2021
·
Week 2
·
🏟 FAU Stadium
Boca Raton, FL
·
Turf
·
30,000 cap
Georgia Southern✈ 429 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Georgia Southern
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Georgia Southern entering this game.
Momentum Control
80.6%
Georgia Southern wins
Strong
Game Control
75.9%
Georgia Southern wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Florida Atlantic -6.5
O/U 48.5
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Florida Atlantic
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Georgia Southern 2021 Schedule
Georgia Southern's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | Georgia Southern vs Gardner-Webb | -27.5W30–25 | 48.0 | W30–25 | O | N |
| Sat 9/11 | Georgia Southern at Florida Atlantic | +6.5L6–38 | 48.5 | L6–38 | U | N |
| Sat 9/18 | Georgia Southern at Arkansas | +23.0L10–45 | 53.5 | L10–45 | O | N |
| Sat 9/25 | Georgia Southern vs Louisiana | +14.5L20–28 | 54.5 | L20–28 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/2 | Georgia Southern vs Arkansas State | -1.5W59–33 | 66.5 | W59–33 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/9 | Georgia Southern at Troy | +5.5L24–27 | 51.0 | L24–27 | U | Y |
| Thu 10/14 | Georgia Southern at South Alabama | +2.5L14–41 | 49.0 | L14–41 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/30 | Georgia Southern vs Georgia State | +6.0L14–21 | 55.0 | L14–21 | U | N |
| Sat 11/6 | Georgia Southern vs Coastal Carolina | +16.0L8–28 | 56.5 | L8–28 | U | N |
| Sat 11/13 | Georgia Southern at Texas State | +2.5W38–30 | 52.0 | W38–30 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/20 | Georgia Southern vs BYU | +20.0L17–34 | 57.0 | L17–34 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/27 | Georgia Southern at App State | +24.5L3–27 | 55.0 | L3–27 | U | Y |
Florida Atlantic 2021 Schedule
Florida Atlantic's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | Florida Atlantic at Florida | +23.5L14–35 | 51.5 | L14–35 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/11 | Florida Atlantic vs Georgia Southern | -6.5W38–6 | 48.5 | W38–6 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/18 | Florida Atlantic vs Fordham | -31.0W45–14 | 51.5 | W45–14 | O | N |
| Sat 9/25 | Florida Atlantic at Air Force | +3.5L7–31 | 54.0 | L7–31 | U | N |
| Sat 10/2 | Florida Atlantic vs Florida International | -10.5W58–21 | 52.0 | W58–21 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/9 | Florida Atlantic at UAB | +3.5L14–31 | 48.5 | L14–31 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Thu 10/21 | Florida Atlantic at Charlotte | -6.5W38–9 | 58.0 | W38–9 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/30 | Florida Atlantic vs UTEP | -11.0W28–25 | 49.0 | W28–25 | O | N |
| Sat 11/6 | Florida Atlantic vs Marshall | +1.0L13–28 | 58.0 | L13–28 | U | N |
| Sat 11/13 | Florida Atlantic at Old Dominion | -6.5L16–30 | 48.0 | L16–30 | U | N |
| Sat 11/20 | Florida Atlantic at Western Kentucky | +11.5L17–52 | 64.0 | L17–52 | O | N |
| Sat 11/27 | Florida Atlantic vs Middle Tennessee | -3.5L17–27 | 49.5 | L17–27 | U | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2021 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Florida Atlantic
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Georgia Southern Edge
Georgia Southern +2.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 80.6% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Georgia Southern Edge
Georgia Southern +67.6
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Florida Atlantic
1 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Florida Atlantic
52.3 — 20.0 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Florida Atlantic won by 32
✗ Model missed it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Georgia Southern with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Georgia Southern
Chad Lunsford #1
28–20 (58%)
· Yr 4 at school
OC
Doug Ruse
Yr 1
#1
DC
Scot Sloan
Yr 1
#1
Florida Atlantic
Willie Taggart #1
7–5 (58%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Mike Johnson
Yr 1
#1
DC
Mike Stoops
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓