Sat, Sep 25 2021
·
Week 4
·
🏟 Paulson Stadium
Statesboro, GA
·
Turf
·
24,300 cap
Louisiana✈ 623 mi+1 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
Louisiana
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Louisiana entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Louisiana wins
Lean
Game Control
75.9%
Louisiana wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Louisiana -14.5
O/U 54.5
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Louisiana
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Louisiana 2021 Schedule
Louisiana's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | Louisiana at Texas | +8.5L18–38 | 58.0 | L18–38 | U | N |
| Sat 9/11 | Louisiana vs Nicholls | -26.0W27–24 | 65.0 | W27–24 | U | N |
| Thu 9/16 | Louisiana vs Ohio | -18.5W49–14 | 56.5 | W49–14 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/25 | Louisiana at Georgia Southern | -14.5W28–20 | 54.5 | W28–20 | U | N |
| Sat 10/2 | Louisiana at South Alabama | -12.0W20–18 | 52.5 | W20–18 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Tue 10/12 | Louisiana vs App State | +4.5W41–13 | 57.5 | W41–13 | U | Y |
| Thu 10/21 | Louisiana at Arkansas State | -17.0W28–27 | 70.0 | W28–27 | U | N |
| Sat 10/30 | Louisiana vs Texas State | -21.0W45–0 | 58.0 | W45–0 | U | Y |
| Thu 11/4 | Louisiana vs Georgia State | -13.5W21–17 | 53.5 | W21–17 | U | N |
| Sat 11/13 | Louisiana at Troy | -6.5W35–21 | 48.0 | W35–21 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/20 | Louisiana at Liberty | +4.0W42–14 | 53.5 | W42–14 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/27 | Louisiana vs UL Monroe | -21.5W21–16 | 56.0 | W21–16 | U | N |
| Sat 12/4 | Louisiana vs App State | +2.5W24–16 | 52.5 | W24–16 | U | Y |
| Sat 12/18 | Louisiana vs Marshall | -4.0W36–21 | 55.5 | W36–21 | O | Y |
Georgia Southern 2021 Schedule
Georgia Southern's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | Georgia Southern vs Gardner-Webb | -27.5W30–25 | 48.0 | W30–25 | O | N |
| Sat 9/11 | Georgia Southern at Florida Atlantic | +6.5L6–38 | 48.5 | L6–38 | U | N |
| Sat 9/18 | Georgia Southern at Arkansas | +23.0L10–45 | 53.5 | L10–45 | O | N |
| Sat 9/25 | Georgia Southern vs Louisiana | +14.5L20–28 | 54.5 | L20–28 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/2 | Georgia Southern vs Arkansas State | -1.5W59–33 | 66.5 | W59–33 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/9 | Georgia Southern at Troy | +5.5L24–27 | 51.0 | L24–27 | U | Y |
| Thu 10/14 | Georgia Southern at South Alabama | +2.5L14–41 | 49.0 | L14–41 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/30 | Georgia Southern vs Georgia State | +6.0L14–21 | 55.0 | L14–21 | U | N |
| Sat 11/6 | Georgia Southern vs Coastal Carolina | +16.0L8–28 | 56.5 | L8–28 | U | N |
| Sat 11/13 | Georgia Southern at Texas State | +2.5W38–30 | 52.0 | W38–30 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/20 | Georgia Southern vs BYU | +20.0L17–34 | 57.0 | L17–34 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/27 | Georgia Southern at App State | +24.5L3–27 | 55.0 | L3–27 | U | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2021 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Louisiana
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Louisiana
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Louisiana
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Louisiana Edge
Louisiana +0.83
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Louisiana Edge
Louisiana +26.8
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Louisiana with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Louisiana
Billy Napier #1
30–12 (71%)
· Yr 4 at school
OC
Michael Desormeaux
Yr 1
#1
DC
Patrick Toney
Yr 1
#1
Georgia Southern
Chad Lunsford #1
28–20 (58%)
· Yr 4 at school
OC
Doug Ruse
Yr 1
#1
DC
Scot Sloan
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓