Buffalo at Ball State - 2026 Matchup Preview
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Buffalo Bulls at Ball State Cardinals

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Wednesday, November 11th 2026 (12:00 PM EST)
Scheumann Stadium - Muncie, IN  (Mid-American)

 
Bulls (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Pete Lembo (14 - 11)
Avg Score : 24 - 24 (23 - 23 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6.5 - 5.5 (#65)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 8)
BUFF 2nd straight Road Game
Our Line: Buffalo -10.5  (SP+ BUFF -15.5)

Projected Score: BUFF: 29 - BALL: 18 (47)
BUFF Win prob: 76% | Cover: 44%
BUFF Travel: 393 miles
Cardinals (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Mike Uremovich (4 - 8)
Avg Score : 16 - 30 (24 - 22 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 2.6 - 9.4 (#111)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 8)
 
Buffalo's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 9/3Buffalo vs UAlbany-14.5
Sat 9/12Buffalo at Florida International+4.5
Sat 9/19Buffalo at Penn State+25
Sat 9/26Buffalo vs Robert Morris-14.5
Sat 10/3Buffalo vs Western Michigan+3.5
Sat 10/10Buffalo at Toledo+15.5
Sat 10/17Buffalo vs Massachusetts-25.5
Sat 10/24Buffalo vs Bowling Green-4.5
— Bye Week —
Tue 11/3Buffalo at Miami (OH)+10.5
Wed 11/11Buffalo at Ball State-10.5
Wed 11/18Buffalo vs Central Michigan-0
Fri 11/27Buffalo at Akron-1.5

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 4
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 4
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Buffalo's Schedule
Ball State's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/5Ball State at Ohio State+38
Sat 9/12Ball State vs Stony Brook-1
Sat 9/19Ball State at Liberty+19
Sat 9/26Ball State at Kent State+7
Sat 10/3Ball State vs Toledo+23.5
Sat 10/10Ball State at Northwestern+27.5
Sat 10/17Ball State at Bowling Green+13.5
Sat 10/24Ball State vs Sacramento State+15
— Bye Week —
Wed 11/4Ball State at Massachusetts-7.5
Wed 11/11Ball State vs Buffalo+10.5
Tue 11/17Ball State at Ohio+17.5
Sat 11/28Ball State vs Central Michigan+13

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 3, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 3, Poor 5
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Ball State's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
BUFF#116 (.07)39% (109)2439% (108)2.68 (115)13339% (104)2293.5 (91)#49 (.12)39% (35)23.539% (27)40% (47)3.07 (21)45.71.81.3
BALL#134 (-)33% (136)15.834% (133)2.52 (130)13431% (133)1382.71 (132)#79 (.18)44% (106)29.847% (112)44% (97)3.57 (59)38.81.31.1
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
BUFF0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
BALL0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
BUFF Offense122423.238.8%3.51.8193621332293.945%53%39%39%16%.07
BALL Defense1229.821.644.5%3.571.1 - - - - - 52%46%47%44%14%.18
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
BUFF Defense1223.522.639.1%3.071.3 - - - - - 55%43%39%40%15%.12
BALL Offense1215.824.432.7%2.711.3152721341383.555%42%34%31%21%-

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Buffalo1228:0319.436%40%5.445.71.81.36.12.8129.5
Ball State1229:4414.734%53%4.738.81.31.14.61.8127.7
Run Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
BUFF Offense1245% (105)39% (108)34.4133.23.915 (70)-.03 (128)2.68 (115)69% (93)9% (65)0.88 (108)
BALL Defense1252% (99)47% (112) - - - - .16 (98)2.97 (83)63% (17)9% (99)1.03 (100)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
BUFF Defense1255% (124)39% (27) - - - - .05 (38)2.96 (79)66% (30)10% (52)0.89 (34)
BALL Offense1255% (28)34% (133)37.8133.73.511 (88).03 (111)2.52 (130)58% (133)16% (136)1.09 (23)

Pass Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
BUFF Offense1253% (31)39% (104)19.634.32296.711.719 (75)14 (34).19 (103)1.5 (101)34% (112)27% (108).28 (76)7% (104)2 (76)
BALL Defense1246% (39)44% (97) - - - - - - 9 (100).3 (93)1.6 (72)30% (101)32% (101).33 (89)5% (90)2 (64)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
BUFF Defense1243% (11)40% (47) - - - - - - 7 (123).23 (61)1.6 (98)32% (51)28% (36).17 (18)5% (95)1.7 (4)
BALL Offense1242% (112)31% (133)1323.1138610.611 (114)8 (20)-.03 (136)1.6 (64)36% (132)22% (133).06 (130)5% (42)1.9 (89)

Buffalo's Power Ratings
Buffalo's Power Rating: -10.78  #117
Buffalo's Offense Rating: 7.55  #124
Buffalo's Defense Rating: 18.34  #104
2026 Talent Rating: 495.00  #100
Blue Chip Ratio: 0%  #104
Buffalo's 2026 Expected Record: 6.5 - 5.5
Buffalo's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: -7.5  #97
Buffalo's Offense SP+ Rating: 18.2  #118
Buffalo's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.4  #70

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 467.85
Average Power Five Talent: 871.03
Average FBS Talent: 676.61

Power Ratings Matchup
Buffalo: -10.78   Ball State: -19.805

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Buffalo: -7.5   Ball State: -23.0




Ball State's Power Ratings
Ball State's Power Rating: -19.805  #137
Ball State's Offense Rating: 5.92  #132
Ball State's Defense Rating: 27.53  #137
2026 Talent Rating: 462.00  #109
Blue Chip Ratio: 0  #104
Ball State's 2026 Expected Record: 2.6 - 9.4
Ball State's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: -23.0  #132
Ball State's Offense SP+ Rating: 13.4  #134
Ball State's Defense SP+ Rating: 34.4  #115

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 467.85
Average Power Five Talent: 871.03
Average FBS Talent: 676.61


Buffalo Scoring
Offense: 24 PPG
Offense on Road: 23.2
Defense: 23.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 22.6

Buffalo's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Buffalo 29
Ball State 18


Projected Total Points: 47
Ball State Scoring
Offense: 15.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 24.4
Defense: 29.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 21.6

Ball State's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202411/12Buffalo51Ball State48Buffalo -3.5Ball State55.5Over
202111/23Ball State20Buffalo3Ball State -6Ball State59.5Under
202012/18Buffalo28Ball State38Buffalo -13Ball State69.5Under
201711/16Ball State24Buffalo40Buffalo -18.5Ball State54.5Over
201610/15Buffalo21Ball State31Ball State -9Ball State52.5Under
201109/17Ball State28Buffalo25
201011/12Buffalo3Ball State20
200812/05Buffalo42Ball State24
200709/29Ball State49Buffalo14
200610/07Buffalo25Ball State55
200010/20Buffalo35Ball State44
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Ball State852 Overs
Buffalo303 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams5 - 62 - 31 - 21 - 1
Road Teams6 - 53 - 21 - 12 - 1

(#117) BUFF at (#137) BALL
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatBUFFBALL
Game ControlGC #101 #135
Momentum ControlMC #55 #74
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #117 #137
SP+SP+ #97 #132
Perf GradeGradeNRNR
OffenseOffNRNR
DefenseDefNRNR
Spec TeamsSTNRNR
TalentTal #100 #109
Blue ChipsBC% #104 #104
Buffalo Notes
(3/4) Vibes: Lembo won 9 in '24, but regressed LY
(3/4) QB Holmes (D II) 3K yds, 24 TD, 240 rushing
(3/4) RB Shelton (#2 LY) some exp, Enlow (Fr) ready?
(3/4) WR Gathings (#2 LY) good, some exp, big guys
(3/4) OL is ?, 2 starters, 1 PT and 4 portal adds
(3/4) F7 lost most from good Def LY, only 6 portals
(3/4) DL is light on exp, size, talent. LB a little better
(3/4) CB looks really strong, Greer a good S. Good unit
Buffalo Injury Report
Ball State Notes
(3/4) Vibes: If this team wins 2 games I'll be shocked
(3/4) QB Luster (Tx St) taken 6 snaps, most exp'd QB
(3/4) RB Horton has some exp, rough unit on paper
(3/4) WR 2 exp'd starters (meh), 4 portal adds
(3/4) OL looks OK, 4 very exp'd starters, tons of bodies
(3/4) Def 13 portals need to help, esp 4 on a rough DL
(3/4) This is the worst Def on paper I've seen this year
Ball State Injury Report
Buffalo on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat
BUFF OffBALL Def
Game ControlGC #106 #133
Momentum ControlMC #98 #38
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #109 #106
ExplosiveExp #104 #70
PPAPPA #116 #79
PowerPwr #124 #137
SP+SP+ #118 #115
Pts POPPO #91 #59
HavocHav #87 #105
Buffalo Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat
BUFF OffBALL Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #108 #112
Run ExplRExp #108 #100
PPAExp #128 #98
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #115 #83
Stuff RateStuff #68 #41
TackleTak - NR
Buffalo Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat
BUFF OffBALL Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #104 #97
Pass ExplPExl #101 #72
PPAExp #103 #93
Pass Rush/BlockP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #65 #99
DB HavocDB #104 #90
Ball State on Offense
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCatBALL OffBUFF Def
Game ControlGC #135 #91
Momentum ControlMC #127 #23
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #136 #35
ExplosiveExp #38 #56
PPAPPA #134 #49
PowerPwr #132 #104
SP+SP+ #134 #70
Pts POPPO #132 #21
HavocHav #135 #75
Ball State Run Game
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat
BALL OffBUFF Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #133 #27
Run ExplRExp #23 #34
PPAExp #111 #38
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #130 #79
Stuff RateStuff #123 #94
TackleTak - NR
Ball State Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCatBALL OffBUFF Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #133 #47
Pass ExplPExl #64 #98
PPAExp #136 #61
Pass Block/RushP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #136 #52
DB HavocDB #42 #95
Program Comparison
BALL 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'26 Profile: Remains Poor G5

BUFF 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average G5
'26 Profile: Remains Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Scheumann Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Previous Matchups
Buffalo beat Ball State in 2024 (51-48)

  
BUFF's OC Tony Tokarz (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Terrance Shelton Jr.5724414.320
James McNeil Jr.126725.626
Jason Wright144503.29
Messiah Burch114103.714
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jasaiah Gathings36410311.439
Trevor Wilson (Tr)2219318.830
Chance Morrow8129216.126
Patrick Clacks III127125.911

View Buffalo's Full Roster

BUFF's DC Joe Bowen (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Miles Greer743313
Saveon Brown527224
Keontez Bradley280004
Kobi Blackwell200007
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Miles Greer743313
Saveon Brown527224
Cornell Evans142111
Messiah Burch10000
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kobi Blackwell200007
Keontez Bradley280004
Saveon Brown527224

BALL's OC Mike Uremovich (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Keldric Luster (Tr)1333%14004.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
TJ Horton6018003.013
Jalen Bonds277712.915
Johnny Thompson Jr. (Tr)197503.99
Elijah Jackson81702.17
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
CJ Nelson (Tr)22393317.975
Donovan Hamilton20244012.247
Jabari Smith15166311.137
TJ Horton157114.719

View Ball State's Full Roster

BALL's DC Jeff Knowles (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Willizhuan Yates320006
Tobi Adewoyin140000
Ameir Glenn133100
Deondre Shepherd131000
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Maverick Gracio (Tr)42121
Ameir Glenn133100
Jared Badie (Tr)82140
Ben Marsh72100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Willizhuan Yates320006
Maverick Gracio (Tr)42121
Ameir Glenn133100