Buffalo at Miami (OH) - 2026 Matchup Preview
Buffalo logo

Buffalo Bulls at Miami (OH) RedHawks

Miami (OH) logo
Tuesday, November 3rd 2026 (12:00 PM EST)
Yager Stadium - Oxford, OH  (Mid-American)

 
Bulls (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Pete Lembo (14 - 11)
Avg Score : 24 - 24 (23 - 23 on Road)
Record Prediction: 6.5 - 5.5 (#65)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 8)
BUFF coming off BYE
M-OH coming off BYE
Our Line: Miami (OH) -10.5  (SP+ M-OH -4)

Projected Score: BUFF: 19 - M-OH: 30 (49)
M-OH Win prob: 76% | Cover: 44%
BUFF Travel: 392 miles
RedHawks (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Chuck Martin (72 - 74)
Avg Score : 24 - 22 (32 - 23 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 8.6 - 3.4 (#20)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 1) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 9)
 
Buffalo's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 9/3Buffalo vs UAlbany-14.5
Sat 9/12Buffalo at Florida International+4.5
Sat 9/19Buffalo at Penn State+25
Sat 9/26Buffalo vs Robert Morris-14.5
Sat 10/3Buffalo vs Western Michigan+3.5
Sat 10/10Buffalo at Toledo+15.5
Sat 10/17Buffalo vs Massachusetts-25.5
Sat 10/24Buffalo vs Bowling Green-4.5
— Bye Week —
Tue 11/3Buffalo at Miami (OH)+10.5
Wed 11/11Buffalo at Ball State-10.5
Wed 11/18Buffalo vs Central Michigan-0
Fri 11/27Buffalo at Akron-1.5

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 4
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 4
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Buffalo's Schedule
Miami (OH)'s 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/5Miami (OH) at Pittsburgh+12.5
Sat 9/12Miami (OH) vs Holy Cross-22
Sat 9/19Miami (OH) at Cincinnati+5.5
Sat 9/26Miami (OH) vs UConn-0
Sat 10/3Miami (OH) vs Bowling Green-12.5
Sat 10/10Miami (OH) at Massachusetts-28
Sat 10/17Miami (OH) vs Akron-14
Sat 10/24Miami (OH) at Central Michigan-3
— Bye Week —
Tue 11/3Miami (OH) vs Buffalo-10.5
Tue 11/10Miami (OH) vs Ohio-8.5
Tue 11/17Miami (OH) at Kent State-14
Tue 11/24Miami (OH) at Western Michigan+0.5

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 1, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 5
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Miami (OH)'s Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
BUFF#116 (.07)39% (109)2439% (108)2.68 (115)13339% (104)2293.5 (91)#49 (.12)39% (35)23.539% (27)40% (47)3.07 (21)45.71.81.3
M-OH#107 (.1)39% (106)23.543% (82)3.14 (33)15136% (119)1873.34 (107)#29 (.08)39% (36)21.739% (35)40% (52)3.39 (45)49.11.11.4
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
BUFF0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
M-OH0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
BUFF Offense122423.238.8%3.51.8193621332293.945%53%39%39%16%.07
M-OH Defense1421.722.739.1%3.391.4 - - - - - 49%49%39%40%18%.08
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
BUFF Defense1223.522.639.1%3.071.3 - - - - - 55%43%39%40%15%.12
M-OH Offense1423.532.339.2%3.341.1183381511874.352%47%43%36%13%.1

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Buffalo1228:0319.436%40%5.445.71.81.36.12.8129.5
Miami (OH)1429:4817.635%42%5.649.11.11.45.82.9331.4
Run Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
BUFF Offense1245% (105)39% (108)34.4133.23.915 (70)-.03 (128)2.68 (115)69% (93)9% (65)0.88 (108)
M-OH Defense1449% (58)39% (35) - - - - .05 (40)2.71 (34)73% (87)11% (34)0.92 (48)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
BUFF Defense1255% (124)39% (27) - - - - .05 (38)2.96 (79)66% (30)10% (52)0.89 (34)
M-OH Offense1452% (48)43% (82)35.1150.84.317 (78).07 (93)3.14 (33)66% (105)7% (14)0.87 (113)

Pass Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
BUFF Offense1253% (31)39% (104)19.634.32296.711.719 (75)14 (34).19 (103)1.5 (101)34% (112)27% (108).28 (76)7% (104)2 (76)
M-OH Defense1449% (79)40% (52) - - - - - - 14 (12).19 (43)1.5 (27)34% (30)28% (43).22 (40)7% (22)2 (57)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
BUFF Defense1243% (11)40% (47) - - - - - - 7 (123).23 (61)1.6 (98)32% (51)28% (36).17 (18)5% (95)1.7 (4)
M-OH Offense1447% (88)36% (119)13.126.3187.37.114.317 (86)11 (88).18 (106)1.7 (27)32% (84)28% (91).21 (103)6% (81)1.9 (104)

Buffalo's Power Ratings
Buffalo's Power Rating: -10.78  #117
Buffalo's Offense Rating: 7.55  #124
Buffalo's Defense Rating: 18.34  #104
2026 Talent Rating: 495.00  #100
Blue Chip Ratio: 0%  #104
Buffalo's 2026 Expected Record: 6.5 - 5.5
Buffalo's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: -7.5  #97
Buffalo's Offense SP+ Rating: 18.2  #118
Buffalo's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.4  #70

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 467.85
Average Power Five Talent: 871.03
Average FBS Talent: 676.61

Power Ratings Matchup
Buffalo: -10.78   Miami (OH): 1.135

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Buffalo: -7.5   Miami (OH): -3.4




Miami (OH)'s Power Ratings
Miami (OH)'s Power Rating: 1.135  #67
Miami (OH)'s Offense Rating: 14.71  #79
Miami (OH)'s Defense Rating: 14.04  #58
2026 Talent Rating: 647.00  #71
Blue Chip Ratio: 250  #67
Miami (OH)'s 2026 Expected Record: 8.6 - 3.4
Miami (OH)'s 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: -3.4  #84
Miami (OH)'s Offense SP+ Rating: 19.3  #114
Miami (OH)'s Defense SP+ Rating: 24.2  #54

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 467.85
Average Power Five Talent: 871.03
Average FBS Talent: 676.61


Buffalo Scoring
Offense: 24 PPG
Offense on Road: 23.2
Defense: 23.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 22.6

Buffalo's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Miami (OH) 30
Buffalo 19


Projected Total Points: 49
Miami (OH) Scoring
Offense: 23.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 32.3
Defense: 21.7 PPG
Defense at Home: 22.7

Miami (OH)'s 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202511/19Buffalo20Miami (OH)37Miami (OH) -2.5Miami (OH)38.5Over
202311/15Miami (OH)23Buffalo10Miami (OH) -7.5Miami (OH)36.5Under
202210/01Buffalo24Miami (OH)20Buffalo -3Buffalo50.0Under
202111/09Miami (OH)45Buffalo18Miami (OH) -7Miami (OH)58.0Over
202011/10Buffalo42Miami (OH)10Buffalo -7.5Buffalo55.0Under
201909/28Miami (OH)34Buffalo20Buffalo -2.5Miami (OH)47.5Over
201810/30Buffalo51Miami (OH)42Buffalo -7Buffalo53.0Over
201710/21Miami (OH)24Buffalo14Miami (OH) -3Miami (OH)47.0Under
201611/12Buffalo24Miami (OH)35Miami (OH) -12Buffalo50.5Over
201510/29Miami (OH)24Buffalo29Buffalo -9.5Miami (OH)50.0Over
201409/27Buffalo35Miami (OH)27Buffalo -6.5Buffalo0
201311/19Miami (OH)7Buffalo44Buffalo -24Buffalo0
201211/03Buffalo27Miami (OH)24
201110/29Miami (OH)41Buffalo13
201010/30Buffalo9Miami (OH)21
200911/18Miami (OH)17Buffalo42
200811/04Buffalo37Miami (OH)17
200711/03Miami (OH)31Buffalo28
200610/14Buffalo31Miami (OH)38
200511/05Miami (OH)54Buffalo13
200410/16Buffalo7Miami (OH)25
200310/11Miami (OH)59Buffalo3
200210/19Buffalo0Miami (OH)49
200110/06Miami (OH)31Buffalo14
200011/17Buffalo16Miami (OH)17
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Miami (OH)1666 Overs
Buffalo964 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams15 - 1010 - 27 - 03 - 2
Road Teams10 - 152 - 102 - 30 - 7

(#117) BUFF at (#67) M-OH
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatBUFFM-OH
Game ControlGC #101 #83
Momentum ControlMC #55 #70
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #117 #67
SP+SP+ #97 #84
Perf GradeGradeNRNR
OffenseOffNRNR
DefenseDefNRNR
Spec TeamsSTNRNR
TalentTal #100 #71
Blue ChipsBC% #104 #67
Buffalo Notes
(3/4) Vibes: Lembo won 9 in '24, but regressed LY
(3/4) QB Holmes (D II) 3K yds, 24 TD, 240 rushing
(3/4) RB Shelton (#2 LY) some exp, Enlow (Fr) ready?
(3/4) WR Gathings (#2 LY) good, some exp, big guys
(3/4) OL is ?, 2 starters, 1 PT and 4 portal adds
(3/4) F7 lost most from good Def LY, only 6 portals
(3/4) DL is light on exp, size, talent. LB a little better
(3/4) CB looks really strong, Greer a good S. Good unit
Buffalo Injury Report
Buffalo on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat
BUFF OffM-OH Def
Game ControlGC #106 #73
Momentum ControlMC #98 #78
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #109 #36
ExplosiveExp #104 #33
PPAPPA #116 #29
PowerPwr #124 #58
SP+SP+ #118 #54
Pts POPPO #91 #45
HavocHav #87 #25
Buffalo Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat
BUFF OffM-OH Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #108 #35
Run ExplRExp #108 #48
PPAExp #128 #40
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #115 #34
Stuff RateStuff #68 #45
TackleTak - NR
Buffalo Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat
BUFF OffM-OH Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #104 #52
Pass ExplPExl #101 #27
PPAExp #103 #43
Pass Rush/BlockP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #65 #34
DB HavocDB #104 #22
Miami (OH) on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCatM-OH OffBUFF Def
Game ControlGC #92 #91
Momentum ControlMC #58 #23
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #106 #35
ExplosiveExp #83 #56
PPAPPA #107 #49
PowerPwr #79 #104
SP+SP+ #114 #70
Pts POPPO #107 #21
HavocHav #34 #75
Miami (OH) Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCat
M-OH OffBUFF Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #82 #27
Run ExplRExp #113 #34
PPAExp #93 #38
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #33 #79
Stuff RateStuff #47 #94
TackleTak - NR
Miami (OH) Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 52%
CategoryCatM-OH OffBUFF Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #119 #47
Pass ExplPExl #27 #98
PPAExp #106 #61
Pass Block/RushP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #14 #52
DB HavocDB #81 #95
Program Comparison
M-OH 5 Year Profile: Consistent Top G5
'26 Profile: Down to Average G5

BUFF 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average G5
'26 Profile: Remains Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Yager Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Previous Matchups
Miami (OH) beat Buffalo last year (37-20)
Miami (OH) beat Buffalo in 2023 (23-10)

  
BUFF's OC Tony Tokarz (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Terrance Shelton Jr.5724414.320
James McNeil Jr.126725.626
Jason Wright144503.29
Messiah Burch114103.714
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jasaiah Gathings36410311.439
Trevor Wilson (Tr)2219318.830
Chance Morrow8129216.126
Patrick Clacks III127125.911

View Buffalo's Full Roster

BUFF's DC Joe Bowen (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Miles Greer743313
Saveon Brown527224
Keontez Bradley280004
Kobi Blackwell200007
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Miles Greer743313
Saveon Brown527224
Cornell Evans142111
Messiah Burch10000
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kobi Blackwell200007
Keontez Bradley280004
Saveon Brown527224

M-OH's OC Gus Ragland (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Thomas Gotkowski388644%575416.7
Lynel Billups-Williams010%0000.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Rodney Nelson (Tr)2941805186.175
D'Shawntae Jones6327774.446
Keith Reynolds2718606.932
Cade Yacamelli (Tr)3812803.412
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Maleek Huggins56808714.485
Keith Reynolds3635219.869
Rodney Nelson (Tr)3022917.649
Christian Ross1817419.737

View Miami (OH)'s Full Roster

M-OH's DC Bill Brechin (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
CJ Young898323
Blayne Myrick (Tr)846033
Malcolm Mccain667220
Mychal Yharbrough442004
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Bai Jobe154440
CJ Young898323
James Schott143321
Malcolm Mccain667220
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kaleb Martin310007
Mychal Yharbrough442004
CJ Young898323