Sat, Sep 19 2026
·
Week 3
·
🏟 Nippert Stadium
Cincinnati, OH
·
Turf
·
40,000 cap
Preseason projection — This game has not yet been played and 2026 in-season data is not yet available.
Edges are based on 2025 full-season performance.
Confidence will increase once in-season games are logged.
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Miami (OH),
while Game Control favors Cincinnati.
Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
61.3%
Miami (OH) wins
Lean
Game Control
58.6%
Cincinnati wins
Lean
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Cincinnati
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Miami (OH) 2026 Schedule
Miami (OH)'s 2026 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/5 | Miami (OH) at Pittsburgh | +11.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/12 | Miami (OH) vs Holy Cross | -22.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/19 | Miami (OH) at Cincinnati | +5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/26 | Miami (OH) vs UConn | -9 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/3 | Miami (OH) vs Bowling Green | -13 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/10 | Miami (OH) at Massachusetts | -25.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/17 | Miami (OH) vs Akron | -16.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/24 | Miami (OH) at Central Michigan | -5 | — | — | — | — |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Tue 11/3 | Miami (OH) vs Buffalo | -12.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Tue 11/10 | Miami (OH) vs Ohio | -13.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Tue 11/17 | Miami (OH) at Kent State | -15 | — | — | — | — |
| Tue 11/24 | Miami (OH) at Western Michigan | -3 | — | — | — | — |
Cincinnati 2026 Schedule
Cincinnati's 2026 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/5 | Cincinnati vs Boston College | -8 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/12 | Cincinnati vs Western Carolina | -25 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/19 | Cincinnati vs Miami (OH) | -5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/26 | Cincinnati vs Kansas State | +4 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/3 | Cincinnati at Arizona | +11 | — | — | — | — |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/17 | Cincinnati at West Virginia | +2 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/24 | Cincinnati vs Texas Tech | +21 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/31 | Cincinnati vs Utah | +5.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/7 | Cincinnati at Houston | +9 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/14 | Cincinnati at Iowa State | +3 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/21 | Cincinnati vs Colorado | -3.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/28 | Cincinnati at BYU | +16 | — | — | — | — |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2025 season (prior year)
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Cincinnati
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season (prior year — 2026 data not yet available) ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Miami (OH) Edge
Miami (OH) +0.08
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 2025 full season · preseason estimate
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Cincinnati Edge
Cincinnati +7.6
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.6% of games historically
Based on 2025 full season · preseason estimate
Coaching Matchup
Miami (OH)
Chuck Martin #31
72–74 (49%)
· Yr 13 at school
OC
Gus Ragland
Yr 1
#67
DC
Bill Brechin
Yr 3
#8
Cincinnati
Scott Satterfield #72
15–22 (41%)
· Yr 4 at school
OC
Nic Dardwell
Yr 1
#67
DC
Nate Woody
Yr 1
#12
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓