Ball State at Bowling Green - 2026 Matchup Preview
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Ball State Cardinals at Bowling Green Falcons

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Saturday, October 17th 2026 (12:00 PM EDT)
Doyt Perry Stadium - Bowling Green, OH  (Mid-American)

 
Cardinals (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Mike Uremovich (4 - 8)
Avg Score : 16 - 30 (10 - 36 on Road)
Record Prediction: 2.6 - 9.4 (#111)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 8)
BALL 2nd straight Road Game
BGSU 2nd straight Home Game
BGSU is playing their 7th straight game
BALL is playing their 7th straight game
Our Line: Bowling Green -13.5  (SP+ BGSU -10)

Projected Score: BALL: 15 - BGSU: 28 (43)
BGSU Win prob: 84% | Cover: 56%
BALL Travel: 123 miles
Falcons (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Eddie George (4 - 8)
Avg Score : 21 - 24 (17 - 20 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5.6 - 6.4 (#81)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 3) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 7)
 
Ball State's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/5Ball State at Ohio State+38
Sat 9/12Ball State vs Stony Brook-1
Sat 9/19Ball State at Liberty+19
Sat 9/26Ball State at Kent State+7
Sat 10/3Ball State vs Toledo+23.5
Sat 10/10Ball State at Northwestern+27.5
Sat 10/17Ball State at Bowling Green+13.5
Sat 10/24Ball State vs Sacramento State+15
— Bye Week —
Wed 11/4Ball State at Massachusetts-7.5
Wed 11/11Ball State vs Buffalo+10.5
Tue 11/17Ball State at Ohio+17.5
Sat 11/28Ball State vs Central Michigan+13

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 3, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 3, Poor 5
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Ball State's Schedule
Bowling Green's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/5Bowling Green vs Tarleton State-12.5
Sat 9/12Bowling Green at Nebraska+19
Sat 9/19Bowling Green at Iowa State+20.5
Sat 9/26Bowling Green vs South Florida+15.5
Sat 10/3Bowling Green at Miami (OH)+12.5
Sat 10/10Bowling Green vs Sacramento State+3.5
Sat 10/17Bowling Green vs Ball State-13.5
Sat 10/24Bowling Green at Buffalo+4.5
Sat 10/31Bowling Green at Western Michigan+10.5
— Bye Week —
Tue 11/10Bowling Green vs Kent State-9.5
Wed 11/18Bowling Green at Toledo+17.5
Sat 11/28Bowling Green vs Massachusetts-23.5

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 3, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 3, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 5
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Bowling Green's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
BALL#134 (-)33% (136)15.834% (133)2.52 (130)13431% (133)1382.71 (132)#79 (.18)44% (106)29.847% (112)44% (97)3.57 (59)38.81.31.1
BGSU#128 (.02)36% (128)20.537% (125)2.88 (78)15635% (124)1513.19 (118)#61 (.15)41% (56)24.339% (40)42% (68)3.44 (48)611.21.3
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
BALL0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
BGSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
BALL Offense1215.89.732.7%2.711.3152721341383.555%42%34%31%21%-
BGSU Defense1224.319.540.6%3.441.3 - - - - - 53%46%39%42%19%.15
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
BALL Defense1229.835.744.5%3.571.1 - - - - - 52%46%47%44%14%.18
BGSU Offense1220.51735.6%3.191.217307156151458%40%37%35%16%.02

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Ball State1229:4414.734%53%4.738.81.31.14.61.8127.7
Bowling Green1231:1816.637%42%6.7611.21.36.21.8131
Run Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
BALL Offense1255% (28)34% (133)37.8133.73.511 (88).03 (111)2.52 (130)58% (133)16% (136)1.09 (23)
BGSU Defense1253% (105)39% (40) - - - - .06 (48)2.74 (40)59% (9)13% (8)1.06 (116)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
BALL Defense1252% (99)47% (112) - - - - .16 (98)2.97 (83)63% (17)9% (99)1.03 (100)
BGSU Offense1258% (15)37% (125)39.3155.5413 (119).03 (112)2.88 (78)58% (133)10% (95)0.95 (76)

Pass Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
BALL Offense1242% (112)31% (133)1323.1138610.611 (114)8 (20)-.03 (136)1.6 (64)36% (132)22% (133).06 (130)5% (42)1.9 (89)
BGSU Defense1246% (34)42% (68) - - - - - - 6 (75).28 (82)1.6 (95)33% (49)31% (86).32 (79)7% (43)2.1 (85)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
BALL Defense1246% (39)44% (97) - - - - - - 9 (100).3 (93)1.6 (72)30% (101)32% (101).33 (89)5% (90)2 (64)
BGSU Offense1240% (122)35% (124)13.823.8151.36.410.913 (106)12 (119).07 (129)1.6 (47)34% (110)25% (121).19 (114)6% (65)2.1 (50)

Ball State's Power Ratings
Ball State's Power Rating: -21.61  #137
Ball State's Offense Rating: 5.92  #132
Ball State's Defense Rating: 27.53  #137
2026 Talent Rating: 462.00  #109
Blue Chip Ratio: 0%  #103
Ball State's 2026 Expected Record: 2.6 - 9.4
Ball State's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: -23.0  #132
Ball State's Offense SP+ Rating: 13.4  #134
Ball State's Defense SP+ Rating: 34.4  #115

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 468.77
Average Power Five Talent: 871.03
Average FBS Talent: 676.7

Power Ratings Matchup
Ball State: -21.61   Bowling Green: -8.67

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Ball State: -23.0   Bowling Green: -12.6




Bowling Green's Power Ratings
Bowling Green's Power Rating: -8.67  #113
Bowling Green's Offense Rating: 10.94  #107
Bowling Green's Defense Rating: 20.68  #117
2026 Talent Rating: 487.00  #102
Blue Chip Ratio: 0  #103
Bowling Green's 2026 Expected Record: 5.6 - 6.4
Bowling Green's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: -12.6  #114
Bowling Green's Offense SP+ Rating: 15.4  #128
Bowling Green's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.8  #83

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 468.77
Average Power Five Talent: 871.03
Average FBS Talent: 676.7


Ball State Scoring
Offense: 15.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 9.7
Defense: 29.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 35.7

Ball State's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Bowling Green 28
Ball State 15


Projected Total Points: 43
Bowling Green Scoring
Offense: 20.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 17
Defense: 24.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 19.5

Bowling Green's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202411/23Ball State13Bowling Green38Bowling Green -12.5Bowling Green54.5Under
202311/01Bowling Green24Ball State21Bowling Green -4.5Ball State39.5Over
201511/24Ball State10Bowling Green48Bowling Green -20.5Bowling Green74.0Under
201411/28Bowling Green24Ball State41Bowling Green -9Ball State0
200910/17Ball State17Bowling Green31
200509/10Ball State31Bowling Green40
200410/16Bowling Green51Ball State13
200311/22Ball State14Bowling Green41
200210/26Bowling Green38Ball State20
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Bowling Green821 Overs
Ball State122 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams3 - 60 - 40 - 20 - 2
Road Teams6 - 34 - 02 - 02 - 0

(#137) BALL at (#113) BGSU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatBALLBGSU
Game ControlGC #135 #113
Momentum ControlMC #74 #83
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #137 #113
SP+SP+ #132 #114
Perf GradeGradeNRNR
OffenseOffNRNR
DefenseDefNRNR
Spec TeamsSTNRNR
TalentTal #109 #102
Blue ChipsBC% #103 #103
Ball State Notes
(3/4) Vibes: If this team wins 2 games I'll be shocked
(3/4) QB Luster (Tx St) taken 6 snaps, most exp'd QB
(3/4) RB Horton has some exp, rough unit on paper
(3/4) WR 2 exp'd starters (meh), 4 portal adds
(3/4) OL looks OK, 4 very exp'd starters, tons of bodies
(3/4) Def 13 portals need to help, esp 4 on a rough DL
(3/4) This is the worst Def on paper I've seen this year
Ball State Injury Report
Bowling Green Notes
(3/4) Vibes: Hopeful, George popular, can bowl TY
(3/4) QB Novosad a huge get, big talent for MAC QB
(3/4) RB duo of Dendy & Baldwin (FCS) looks decent
(3/4) WR really need FCS portals or depth to hit
(3/4) OL looks rough, only 2 with PT exp. Some depth
(3/4) DL has some exp, has size. DE's can rush some
(3/4) DBs look strong, even better if FCS portals hit
Bowling Green Injury Report
Ball State on Offense
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat
BALL OffBGSU Def
Game ControlGC #135 #111
Momentum ControlMC #127 #72
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #136 #56
ExplosiveExp #38 #105
PPAPPA #134 #61
PowerPwr #132 #117
SP+SP+ #134 #83
Pts POPPO #132 #48
HavocHav #135 #12
Ball State Run Game
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat
BALL OffBGSU Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #133 #40
Run ExplRExp #23 #116
PPAExp #111 #48
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #130 #40
Stuff RateStuff #123 #8
TackleTak - NR
Ball State Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat
BALL OffBGSU Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #133 #68
Pass ExplPExl #64 #95
PPAExp #136 #82
Pass Rush/BlockP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #136 #8
DB HavocDB #42 #43
Bowling Green on Offense
Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 40%
CategoryCatBGSU OffBALL Def
Game ControlGC #120 #133
Momentum ControlMC #114 #38
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #128 #106
ExplosiveExp #82 #70
PPAPPA #128 #79
PowerPwr #107 #137
SP+SP+ #128 #115
Pts POPPO #118 #59
HavocHav #80 #105
Bowling Green Run Game
Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 40%
CategoryCat
BGSU OffBALL Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #125 #112
Run ExplRExp #76 #100
PPAExp #112 #98
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #78 #83
Stuff RateStuff #66 #41
TackleTak - NR
Bowling Green Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 40%
CategoryCatBGSU OffBALL Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #124 #97
Pass ExplPExl #47 #72
PPAExp #129 #93
Pass Block/RushP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #95 #99
DB HavocDB #65 #90
Program Comparison
BGSU 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg G5
'26 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

BALL 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'26 Profile: Remains Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Doyt Perry Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Previous Matchups
Bowling Green beat Ball State in 2024 (38-13)
Bowling Green beat Ball State in 2023 (24-21)

  
BALL's OC Mike Uremovich (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Keldric Luster (Tr)1333%14004.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
TJ Horton6018003.013
Jalen Bonds277712.915
Johnny Thompson Jr. (Tr)197503.99
Elijah Jackson81702.17
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
CJ Nelson (Tr)22393317.975
Donovan Hamilton20244012.247
Jabari Smith15166311.137
TJ Horton157114.719

View Ball State's Full Roster

BALL's DC Jeff Knowles (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Willizhuan Yates320006
Tobi Adewoyin140000
Ameir Glenn133100
Deondre Shepherd131000
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Maverick Gracio (Tr)42121
Ameir Glenn133100
Jared Badie (Tr)82140
Ben Marsh72100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Willizhuan Yates320006
Maverick Gracio (Tr)42121
Ameir Glenn133100

BGSU's OC Greg Nosal (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Hunter Najm336650%473547.2
Austin Novosad (Tr)1250%400020.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Ke'Marion Baldwin (Tr)15977864.989
Austyn Dendy10849354.624
Isaiah Dawson (Tr)11136112.442
Nakai Amachree72203.111
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Isaiah Dawson (Tr)42575413.767
Nicholas Sowell21247111.826
Brennan Ridley4110127.587
Austyn Dendy464116.027

View Bowling Green's Full Roster

BGSU's DC Brandon Fisher (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kal-El Pascal804005
Armahn Hale (Tr)444001
Preston EstoEsta291001
Dorian Pringle276100
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Myles Bradley206570
Eriq George265420
Andrew Hines III224110
Dorian Pringle276100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
JoJo Johnson2200013
Kal-El Pascal804005
Nick Sawyer (Tr)30002