Alabama at Kentucky - 2026 Matchup Preview
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Alabama Crimson Tide at Kentucky Wildcats

Kentucky logo
Saturday, September 12th 2026 (12:00 PM EDT)
Commonwealth Stadium - Lexington, KY  (SEC)

 
Crimson Tide (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Kalen DeBoer (20 - 8)
Avg Score : 30 - 19 (26 - 24 on Road)
Record Prediction: 8.8 - 3.2 (#15)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 4) (Good: 4) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 2)
UK 2nd straight Home Game
Our Line: Alabama -12.5  (SP+ ALA -13)

Projected Score: ALA: 31 - UK: 19 (50)
ALA Win prob: 81% | Cover: 53%
ALA Travel: 374 miles, 1 hrs behind
Wildcats (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Will Stein (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 23 - 26 (32 - 23 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 4.1 - 7.9 (#93)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 5) (Good: 5) (Avg: 0) (Bad: 1)
 
Alabama's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/5Alabama vs East Carolina-14
Sat 9/12Alabama at Kentucky-12.5
Sat 9/19Alabama vs Florida State-11.5
Sat 9/26Alabama vs South Carolina-13
Sat 10/3Alabama at Mississippi State-12.5
Sat 10/10Alabama vs Georgia+8
Sat 10/17Alabama at Tennessee+1
Sat 10/24Alabama vs Texas A&M-1
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/7Alabama at LSU+2.5
Sat 11/14Alabama at Vanderbilt-6.5
Sat 11/21Alabama vs Chattanooga-32.5
Sat 11/28Alabama vs Auburn-10

Total: Elite: 4, Good: 4, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 0
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 4, Good: 4, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Alabama's Schedule
Kentucky's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/5Kentucky vs Youngstown State-24.5
Sat 9/12Kentucky vs Alabama+12.5
Sat 9/19Kentucky at Texas A&M+19
Sat 9/26Kentucky vs South Alabama-16
Sat 10/3Kentucky at South Carolina+7
Sat 10/10Kentucky vs LSU+12.5
Sat 10/17Kentucky at Oklahoma+20
Sat 10/24Kentucky vs Vanderbilt+3.5
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/7Kentucky at Tennessee+16.5
Sat 11/14Kentucky vs Florida+3.5
Sat 11/21Kentucky at Missouri+15
Sat 11/28Kentucky vs Louisville+8

Total: Elite: 5, Good: 5, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 5, Good: 5, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Kentucky's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ALA#48 (.2)43% (62)29.540% (103)2.73 (109)10445% (33)2644.04 (38)#27 (.08)38% (23)19.239% (31)38% (33)3.65 (66)39.40.91.3
UK#115 (.08)42% (81)2345% (53)3.05 (51)13940% (96)2023.84 (57)#85 (.18)44% (97)26.444% (84)45% (112)3.98 (99)411.81.2
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ALA0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
UK0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ALA Offense1529.526.342.7%4.040.9203681042643.443%56%40%45%14%.2
UK Defense1226.422.643.7%3.981.2 - - - - - 52%46%44%45%15%.18
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ALA Defense1519.223.737.9%3.651.3 - - - - - 50%48%39%38%18%.08
UK Offense122331.741.6%3.841.8203411392023.951%47%45%40%18%.08

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Alabama1531:3420.342%61%4.539.40.91.35.72.2330.3
Kentucky1230:3819.740%52%4.9411.81.25.82.1029.6
Run Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ALA Offense1543% (118)40% (103)31104.23.421 (99).02 (115)2.73 (109)67% (100)8% (33)0.83 (122)
UK Defense1252% (94)44% (84) - - - - .09 (63)2.89 (71)68% (44)10% (57)0.9 (41)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ALA Defense1550% (74)39% (31) - - - - .1 (66)2.81 (53)75% (101)11% (19)1 (91)
UK Offense1251% (52)45% (53)35.9139.33.919 (70).06 (98)3.05 (51)70% (84)11% (111)0.82 (124)

Pass Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ALA Offense1556% (15)45% (33)22.934.9263.57.611.532 (2)5 (3).35 (37)1.6 (54)30% (49)33% (30).4 (29)5% (42)2 (72)
UK Defense1246% (37)45% (112) - - - - - - 12 (38).31 (99)1.5 (64)30% (91)31% (85).31 (76)5% (110)2 (53)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ALA Defense1548% (60)38% (33) - - - - - - 11 (31).11 (17)1.5 (50)35% (19)28% (46).25 (53)6% (47)2 (72)
UK Offense1247% (85)40% (96)19.130.6201.96.610.615 (128)14 (60).19 (101)1.6 (59)31% (62)26% (113).02 (134)7% (95)1.7 (131)

Alabama's Power Ratings
Alabama's Power Rating: 17.38  #12
Alabama's Offense Rating: 21.66  #18
Alabama's Defense Rating: 4.28  #9
2026 Talent Rating: 1069.00  #7
Blue Chip Ratio: 999%  #1
Alabama's 2026 Expected Record: 8.8 - 3.2
Alabama's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 14.8  #17
Alabama's Offense SP+ Rating: 32.2  #36
Alabama's Defense SP+ Rating: 16.1  #11

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 985.31
Average Power Five Talent: 871.03
Average FBS Talent: 676.7

Power Ratings Matchup
Alabama: 17.38   Kentucky: 3.515

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Alabama: 14.8   Kentucky: 1.8




Kentucky's Power Ratings
Kentucky's Power Rating: 3.515  #71
Kentucky's Offense Rating: 16.30  #61
Kentucky's Defense Rating: 16.07  #77
2026 Talent Rating: 800.00  #44
Blue Chip Ratio: 999  #1
Kentucky's 2026 Expected Record: 4.1 - 7.9
Kentucky's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 1.8  #69
Kentucky's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.5  #80
Kentucky's Defense SP+ Rating: 23.7  #48

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 985.31
Average Power Five Talent: 871.03
Average FBS Talent: 676.7


Alabama Scoring
Offense: 29.5 PPG
Offense on Road: 26.3
Defense: 19.2 PPG
Defense on Road: 23.7

Alabama's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Alabama 31
Kentucky 19


Projected Total Points: 50
Kentucky Scoring
Offense: 23 PPG
Offense at Home: 31.7
Defense: 26.4 PPG
Defense at Home: 22.6

Kentucky's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202311/11Kentucky21Alabama49Alabama -10Alabama45.5Over
202011/21Alabama63Kentucky3Alabama -31.5Alabama57.5Over
201610/01Alabama34Kentucky6Alabama -32.5Kentucky54.5Under
201310/12Kentucky7Alabama48Alabama -27Alabama0
200910/03Kentucky20Alabama38
200810/04Alabama17Kentucky14
200410/09Kentucky17Alabama45
200309/13Alabama27Kentucky17
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Kentucky012 Overs
Alabama831 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams4 - 41 - 31 - 10 - 2
Road Teams4 - 43 - 12 - 01 - 1

(#12) ALA at (#71) UK
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatALAUK
Game ControlGC #18 #87
Momentum ControlMC #31 #78
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #12 #71
SP+SP+ #17 #69
Perf GradeGradeNRNR
OffenseOffNRNR
DefenseDefNRNR
Spec TeamsSTNRNR
TalentTal #7 #44
Blue ChipsBC% #1 #1
Alabama Notes
(2/14) Vibes: Shaky, '25 finish, new reality, talent down
(3/4) DBs one of the best units in CFB, deep & talented
(2/7) Least hyped Bama team since before Saban
(1/28) Lost 19 portals that went to P4 schools
(1/28) DeBoer a really good coach, is that enough?
(1/28) QB battle? Austin Mack vs phenom Keelon Russell
(1/28) RBs bad LY, lots of talent but no portal adds?
(1/28) WR L Brooks came on LY, Williams? Rogers added
(1/28) OL only 2 clear starters, 5/6 portal adds inexp'd
(1/28) Portal on lines: IN: 2 OL+5 DL, OUT: 7 OL+6 DL
(1/28) Portaled DTs w good exp but LB's/DE's needed
Alabama Injury Report
Kentucky Notes
(3/3) Vibes: Excited for Stein/Off. Big portal class
(3/3) 15 portals on offense will be tremendous boost
(2/2) New HC Stein fresh air, but OC/DC are ? hires
(2/2) QB Minchey is exciting. Could excel w/ Stein
(2/2) RBs have a lot of promise over prod. Could see it
(2/2) WR rebuild w 6 portals. Need some surprise hits
(2/2) OL mix of 2 really great adds with lots of projects
(2/2) DL parts to build, mix of 9 exp'd guys (5 adds)
(2/2) LBs need work. Lot of projecting success here
(2/2) DBs were awful LY. 6 portals, Bryant (S) good one
Kentucky Injury Report
Alabama on Offense
Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat
ALA OffUK Def
Game ControlGC #13 #95
Momentum ControlMC #37 #83
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #62 #97
ExplosiveExp #50 #57
PPAPPA #48 #85
PowerPwr #18 #77
SP+SP+ #36 #48
Pts POPPO #38 #99
HavocHav #39 #93
Alabama Run Game
Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat
ALA OffUK Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #103 #84
Run ExplRExp #122 #41
PPAExp #115 #63
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #109 #71
Stuff RateStuff #109 #53
TackleTak - NR
Alabama Pass Game
Pass heavy Offense 55%, Run: 43%
CategoryCat
ALA OffUK Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #33 #112
Pass ExplPExl #54 #64
PPAExp #37 #99
Pass Rush/BlockP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #33 #57
DB HavocDB #42 #110
Kentucky on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 51%
CategoryCatUK OffALA Def
Game ControlGC #68 #37
Momentum ControlMC #80 #37
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #81 #23
ExplosiveExp #128 #61
PPAPPA #115 #27
PowerPwr #61 #9
SP+SP+ #80 #11
Pts POPPO #57 #66
HavocHav #110 #26
Kentucky Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat
UK OffALA Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #53 #31
Run ExplRExp #124 #91
PPAExp #98 #66
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #51 #53
Stuff RateStuff #51 #66
TackleTak - NR
Kentucky Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 51%
CategoryCatUK OffALA Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #96 #33
Pass ExplPExl #59 #50
PPAExp #101 #17
Pass Block/RushP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #111 #19
DB HavocDB #95 #47
Program Comparison
UK 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'26 Profile: Down to Top G5

ALA 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFP Hopefuls
'26 Profile: Remains CFP Hopefuls

Weather Forecast
Playing in Commonwealth Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Previous Matchups
Alabama beat Kentucky in 2023 (49-21)

  
ALA's OC Ryan Grubb (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Austin Mack243275%228207.1
Keelon Russell111573%143209.5
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Daniel Hill7528463.830
Kevin Riley5922423.822
AK Dear1914037.456
Austin Mack92212.420
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Ryan Williams49689414.175
Lotzeir Brooks32441213.853
Noah Rogers (Tr)31413213.348
Daniel Hill2820317.341

View Alabama's Full Roster

ALA's DC Kane Wommack (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Brayson Hubbard745218
Caleb Woodson (Tr)573011
Yhonzae Pierre5215881
Keon Sabb523213
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Yhonzae Pierre5215881
Devan Thompkins (Tr)307312
Brayson Hubbard745218
Keon Sabb523213
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Brayson Hubbard745218
Zabien Brown393006
Dijon Lee Jr.325005

UK's OC Joe Sloan (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Kenny Minchey (Tr)202677%196007.5
JacQai Long (Tr)61833%31001.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jason Patterson5722513.929
CJ Baxter Jr.5419603.618
Kenny Minchey (Tr)784112.034
Jovantae Barnes (Tr)194512.410
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Shane Carr (Tr)47655313.944
Hardley Gilmore IV28313111.245
Willie Rodriguez23310113.553
Xavier Daisy (Tr)1817719.821

View Kentucky's Full Roster

UK's DC Jay Bateman (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Ty Bryant762001
Jordan Castell (Tr)540020
Grant Godfrey342110
Mi'Quise Grace317462
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Mi'Quise Grace317462
Jamarrion Harkless (Tr)132340
Tavion Gadson284330
Lorenzo Cowan135300
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Terhyon Nichols181024
Grant Grayton160003
Mi'Quise Grace317462