Sat, Oct 24 2026
·
Week 8
·
🏟 Commonwealth Stadium
Lexington, KY
·
Turf
·
61,000 cap
Vanderbilt✈ 181 mi+1 hr TZ
Preseason projection — This game has not yet been played and 2026 in-season data is not yet available.
Edges are based on 2025 full-season performance.
Confidence will increase once in-season games are logged.
Matchup Prediction
Vanderbilt
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Vanderbilt entering this game.
Momentum Control
73.7%
Vanderbilt wins
Solid
Game Control
64.9%
Vanderbilt wins
Lean
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Vanderbilt
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Vanderbilt 2026 Schedule
Vanderbilt's 2026 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/5 | Vanderbilt vs Austin Peay | -29 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/12 | Vanderbilt vs Delaware | -16.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/19 | Vanderbilt vs NC State | -4 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/26 | Vanderbilt at Auburn | +4 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/3 | Vanderbilt at Georgia | +22 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/10 | Vanderbilt vs Ole Miss | +8 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/17 | Vanderbilt vs Arkansas | -8 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/24 | Vanderbilt at Kentucky | -3.5 | — | — | — | — |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/7 | Vanderbilt at Mississippi State | -3.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/14 | Vanderbilt vs Alabama | +6.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/21 | Vanderbilt at Florida | +2.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/28 | Vanderbilt vs Tennessee | +5.5 | — | — | — | — |
Kentucky 2026 Schedule
Kentucky's 2026 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/5 | Kentucky vs Youngstown State | -24.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/12 | Kentucky vs Alabama | +12.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/19 | Kentucky at Texas A&M | +19 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/26 | Kentucky vs South Alabama | -16 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/3 | Kentucky at South Carolina | +7 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/10 | Kentucky vs LSU | +12.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/17 | Kentucky at Oklahoma | +20 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/24 | Kentucky vs Vanderbilt | +3.5 | — | — | — | — |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/7 | Kentucky at Tennessee | +16.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/14 | Kentucky vs Florida | +3.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/21 | Kentucky at Missouri | +15 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/28 | Kentucky vs Louisville | +8 | — | — | — | — |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2025 season (prior year)
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Vanderbilt
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Vanderbilt
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Vanderbilt
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season (prior year — 2026 data not yet available) ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Vanderbilt Edge
Vanderbilt +1.17
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 73.7% of games historically
Based on 2025 full season · preseason estimate
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Vanderbilt Edge
Vanderbilt +11.6
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 64.9% of games historically
Based on 2025 full season · preseason estimate
Coaching Matchup
Vanderbilt
Clark Lea #36
26–36 (42%)
· Yr 6 at school
OC
Tim Beck
Yr 3
#22
DC
Steve Gregory
Yr 2
#99
Kentucky
Will Stein #77
0–0 (0%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Joe Sloan
Yr 1
#115
DC
Jay Bateman
Yr 1
#38
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓