Sat, Oct 3 2026
·
Week 5
·
🏟 Williams-Brice Stadium
Columbia, SC
·
Turf
·
80,250 cap
Kentucky✈ 340 miSame TZ
Preseason projection — This game has not yet been played and 2026 in-season data is not yet available.
Edges are based on 2025 full-season performance.
Confidence will increase once in-season games are logged.
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Kentucky,
while Game Control favors South Carolina.
Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
61.3%
Kentucky wins
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
South Carolina wins
Toss-up
Advanced Stats
Advanced factors are split · No strong agreement signal
↓ See full breakdown
Kentucky 2026 Schedule
Kentucky's 2026 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/5 | Kentucky vs Youngstown State | -24.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/12 | Kentucky vs Alabama | +12.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/19 | Kentucky at Texas A&M | +19 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/26 | Kentucky vs South Alabama | -16 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/3 | Kentucky at South Carolina | +7 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/10 | Kentucky vs LSU | +12.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/17 | Kentucky at Oklahoma | +20 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/24 | Kentucky vs Vanderbilt | +3.5 | — | — | — | — |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/7 | Kentucky at Tennessee | +16.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/14 | Kentucky vs Florida | +3.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/21 | Kentucky at Missouri | +15 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/28 | Kentucky vs Louisville | +8 | — | — | — | — |
South Carolina 2026 Schedule
South Carolina's 2026 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/5 | South Carolina vs Kent State | -26 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/12 | South Carolina vs Towson | -28.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/19 | South Carolina vs Mississippi State | -7 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/26 | South Carolina at Alabama | +13 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/3 | South Carolina vs Kentucky | -7 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/10 | South Carolina at Florida | +4 | — | — | — | — |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/24 | South Carolina vs Tennessee | +6.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/31 | South Carolina at Oklahoma | +15.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/7 | South Carolina vs Texas A&M | +9.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/14 | South Carolina at Arkansas | -1.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/21 | South Carolina vs Georgia | +18 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/28 | South Carolina at Clemson | +5.5 | — | — | — | — |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2025 season (prior year)
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season (prior year — 2026 data not yet available) ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Kentucky Edge
Kentucky +0.36
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 2025 full season · preseason estimate
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
South Carolina Edge
South Carolina +0.6
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 2025 full season · preseason estimate
Coaching Matchup
Kentucky
Will Stein #77
0–0 (0%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Joe Sloan
Yr 1
#115
DC
Jay Bateman
Yr 1
#38
South Carolina
Shane Beamer #45
33–30 (52%)
· Yr 6 at school
OC
Kendal Briles
Yr 1
#39
DC
Clayton White
Yr 3
#15
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓