Western Michigan at Buffalo - 2026 Matchup Preview
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Western Michigan Broncos at Buffalo Bulls

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Saturday, October 3rd 2026 (12:00 PM EDT)
UB Stadium - Amherst, NY  (Mid-American)

 
Broncos (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Lance Taylor (20 - 19)
Avg Score : 25 - 17 (18 - 22 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7.1 - 4.9 (#50)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 8)
BUFF 2nd straight Home Game
BUFF is playing their 5th straight game
WMU is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Western Michigan -3.5  (SP+ WMU -6)

Projected Score: WMU: 24 - BUFF: 21 (45)
WMU Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
WMU Travel: 350 miles
Bulls (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Pete Lembo (14 - 11)
Avg Score : 24 - 24 (25 - 24 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 6.5 - 5.5 (#65)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 8)
 
Western Michigan's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/5Western Michigan at Michigan+21
Sat 9/12Western Michigan vs Monmouth-20
Sat 9/19Western Michigan at Rice-10
Sat 9/26Western Michigan vs Boise State+4
Sat 10/3Western Michigan at Buffalo-3.5
Sat 10/10Western Michigan vs Kent State-17
Sat 10/17Western Michigan at Central Michigan-1
Sat 10/24Western Michigan at Toledo+10
Sat 10/31Western Michigan vs Bowling Green-10.5
— Bye Week —
Tue 11/10Western Michigan at Akron-7
Tue 11/17Western Michigan vs Eastern Michigan-11
Tue 11/24Western Michigan vs Miami (OH)-0.5

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 6
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 2, Poor 6
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Western Michigan's Schedule
Buffalo's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 9/3Buffalo vs UAlbany-14.5
Sat 9/12Buffalo at Florida International+4.5
Sat 9/19Buffalo at Penn State+25
Sat 9/26Buffalo vs Robert Morris-14.5
Sat 10/3Buffalo vs Western Michigan+3.5
Sat 10/10Buffalo at Toledo+15.5
Sat 10/17Buffalo vs Massachusetts-25.5
Sat 10/24Buffalo vs Bowling Green-4.5
— Bye Week —
Tue 11/3Buffalo at Miami (OH)+10.5
Wed 11/11Buffalo at Ball State-10.5
Wed 11/18Buffalo vs Central Michigan-0
Fri 11/27Buffalo at Akron-1.5

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 4
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 4, Poor 4
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Buffalo's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
WMU#103 (.12)43% (55)24.947% (31)3.18 (25)20537% (116)1393.35 (105)#16 (.06)37% (17)17.438% (21)37% (21)2.83 (13)40.11.11.7
BUFF#116 (.07)39% (109)2439% (108)2.68 (115)13339% (104)2293.5 (91)#49 (.12)39% (35)23.539% (27)40% (47)3.07 (21)45.71.81.3
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
WMU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
BUFF0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
WMU Offense1424.918.343.4%3.351.1193432051394.665%33%47%37%12%.12
BUFF Defense1223.524.139.1%3.071.3 - - - - - 55%43%39%40%15%.12
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
WMU Defense1417.421.736.9%2.831.7 - - - - - 49%49%38%37%17%.06
BUFF Offense122424.638.8%3.51.8193621332293.945%53%39%39%16%.07

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Western Michigan1432:3418.940%44%4.640.11.11.75.93.1232
Buffalo1228:0319.436%40%5.445.71.81.36.12.8129.5
Run Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
WMU Offense1465% (5)47% (31)44.2204.54.631 (49).14 (57)3.18 (25)76% (38)9% (61)0.9 (97)
BUFF Defense1255% (124)39% (27) - - - - .05 (38)2.96 (79)66% (30)10% (52)0.89 (34)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
WMU Defense1449% (56)38% (21) - - - - .06 (46)2.77 (48)73% (86)11% (17)1.02 (98)
BUFF Offense1245% (105)39% (108)34.4133.23.915 (70)-.03 (128)2.68 (115)69% (93)9% (65)0.88 (108)

Pass Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
WMU Offense1433% (132)37% (116)13.221.8138.56.410.510 (114)6 (34).1 (125)1.4 (120)30% (44)24% (128).15 (121)3% (7)1.9 (103)
BUFF Defense1243% (11)40% (47) - - - - - - 7 (123).23 (61)1.6 (98)32% (51)28% (36).17 (18)5% (95)1.7 (4)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
WMU Defense1449% (75)37% (21) - - - - - - 12 (55).1 (11)1.5 (28)34% (23)28% (54).12 (12)6% (67)1.7 (6)
BUFF Offense1253% (31)39% (104)19.634.32296.711.719 (75)14 (34).19 (103)1.5 (101)34% (112)27% (108).28 (76)7% (104)2 (76)

Western Michigan's Power Ratings
Western Michigan's Power Rating: -5.34  #100
Western Michigan's Offense Rating: 14.54  #82
Western Michigan's Defense Rating: 19.88  #113
2026 Talent Rating: 440.00  #117
Blue Chip Ratio: 1%  #102
Western Michigan's 2026 Expected Record: 7.1 - 4.9
Western Michigan's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: -1.4  #81
Western Michigan's Offense SP+ Rating: 21.7  #105
Western Michigan's Defense SP+ Rating: 21.8  #42

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 467.85
Average Power Five Talent: 871.03
Average FBS Talent: 676.61

Power Ratings Matchup
Western Michigan: -5.34   Buffalo: -6.64

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Western Michigan: -1.4   Buffalo: -7.5




Buffalo's Power Ratings
Buffalo's Power Rating: -6.64  #117
Buffalo's Offense Rating: 7.55  #124
Buffalo's Defense Rating: 18.34  #104
2026 Talent Rating: 495.00  #100
Blue Chip Ratio: 0  #104
Buffalo's 2026 Expected Record: 6.5 - 5.5
Buffalo's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: -7.5  #97
Buffalo's Offense SP+ Rating: 18.2  #118
Buffalo's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.4  #70

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 467.85
Average Power Five Talent: 871.03
Average FBS Talent: 676.61


Western Michigan Scoring
Offense: 24.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 18.3
Defense: 17.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 21.7

Western Michigan's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Western Michigan 24
Buffalo 21


Projected Total Points: 45
Buffalo Scoring
Offense: 24 PPG
Offense at Home: 24.6
Defense: 23.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 24.1

Buffalo's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202410/19Buffalo41Western Michigan48Western Michigan -1Western Michigan49.5Over
202110/02Buffalo17Western Michigan24Western Michigan -7NA59.5Under
201710/07Buffalo68Western Michigan71Western Michigan -7Buffalo51.0Over
201611/19Western Michigan38Buffalo0Western Michigan -34Western Michigan55.5Under
201310/12Western Michigan0Buffalo33Buffalo -11Buffalo0
201211/10Buffalo29Western Michigan24
200910/24Western Michigan34Buffalo31
200810/11Buffalo28Western Michigan34
200510/01Western Michigan31Buffalo21
200210/05Buffalo17Western Michigan31
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Buffalo222 Overs
Western Michigan822 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams4 - 62 - 21 - 01 - 2
Road Teams6 - 42 - 22 - 10 - 1

(#100) WMU at (#117) BUFF
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatWMUBUFF
Game ControlGC #60 #101
Momentum ControlMC #66 #55
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #100 #117
SP+SP+ #81 #97
Perf GradeGradeNRNR
OffenseOffNRNR
DefenseDefNRNR
Spec TeamsSTNRNR
TalentTal #117 #100
Blue ChipsBC% #102 #104
Western Michigan Notes
(3/27) QB Lowry is back, a mobile threat. Good/Productive
(3/27) RB Buckley (1K LY) back, Green (Ark) fun add?
(3/27) WR meh, nothing here of note, some experience
(3/27) OL has 3 starters back, 1 portal add from Mich
(3/27) DL/LB is light on size & experience. Not a lot here
(3/26) Def F7 rebuild, new DC. Expect a drop off
(2/6) Elevated Greer Martini (LB) to DC (O'Leary->NFL)
Western Michigan Injury Report
Buffalo Notes
(3/4) Vibes: Lembo won 9 in '24, but regressed LY
(3/4) QB Holmes (D II) 3K yds, 24 TD, 240 rushing
(3/4) RB Shelton (#2 LY) some exp, Enlow (Fr) ready?
(3/4) WR Gathings (#2 LY) good, some exp, big guys
(3/4) OL is ?, 2 starters, 1 PT and 4 portal adds
(3/4) F7 lost most from good Def LY, only 6 portals
(3/4) DL is light on exp, size, talent. LB a little better
(3/4) CB looks really strong, Greer a good S. Good unit
Buffalo Injury Report
Western Michigan on Offense
Very Run heavy Offense 65%, Pass: 34%
CategoryCat
WMU OffBUFF Def
Game ControlGC #66 #91
Momentum ControlMC #110 #23
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #55 #35
ExplosiveExp #136 #56
PPAPPA #103 #49
PowerPwr #82 #104
SP+SP+ #105 #70
Pts POPPO #105 #21
HavocHav #18 #75
Western Michigan Run Game
Very Run heavy Offense 65%, Pass: 34%
CategoryCat
WMU OffBUFF Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #31 #27
Run ExplRExp #97 #34
PPAExp #57 #38
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #25 #79
Stuff RateStuff #30 #94
TackleTak - NR
Western Michigan Pass Game
Very Run heavy Offense 65%, Pass: 34%
CategoryCat
WMU OffBUFF Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #116 #47
Pass ExplPExl #120 #98
PPAExp #125 #61
Pass Rush/BlockP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #61 #52
DB HavocDB #7 #95
Buffalo on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 45%
CategoryCatBUFF OffWMU Def
Game ControlGC #106 #57
Momentum ControlMC #98 #31
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #109 #17
ExplosiveExp #104 #66
PPAPPA #116 #16
PowerPwr #124 #113
SP+SP+ #118 #42
Pts POPPO #91 #13
HavocHav #87 #33
Buffalo Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 45%
CategoryCat
BUFF OffWMU Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #108 #21
Run ExplRExp #108 #98
PPAExp #128 #46
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #115 #48
Stuff RateStuff #68 #96
TackleTak - NR
Buffalo Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 53%, Run: 45%
CategoryCatBUFF OffWMU Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #104 #21
Pass ExplPExl #101 #28
PPAExp #103 #11
Pass Block/RushP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #65 #17
DB HavocDB #104 #67
Program Comparison
BUFF 5 Year Profile: Consistent Average G5
'26 Profile: Remains Average G5

WMU 5 Year Profile: Improving Average G5
'26 Profile: Remains Average G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in UB Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Previous Matchups
Western Michigan beat Buffalo in 2024 (48-41)

  
WMU's OC Walt Bell (been OC for 3 years)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Broc Lowry16626263%1803936.9
Ofa Mataele010%0000.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Jalen Buckley179100395.667
Broc Lowry203963144.737
Ofa Mataele5725234.422
Aveion Chenault335011.725
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Nathan Levicki33478614.575
Baylin Brooks27372013.842
Aveion Chenault23277212.045
Jalen Buckley127516.334

View Western Michigan's Full Roster

WMU's DC Greer Martini (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jarvarius Sims612104
Micah Davis601023
Joshua Franklin5362110
Joey Pope443112
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
DeJuan Echoles276422
Joshua Franklin5362110
Jarvarius Sims612104
Dakari Frazier101100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Joshua Franklin5362110
Jarvarius Sims612104
John Peters140004

BUFF's OC Tony Tokarz (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Terrance Shelton Jr.5724414.320
James McNeil Jr.126725.626
Jason Wright144503.29
Messiah Burch114103.714
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Jasaiah Gathings36410311.439
Trevor Wilson (Tr)2219318.830
Chance Morrow8129216.126
Patrick Clacks III127125.911

View Buffalo's Full Roster

BUFF's DC Joe Bowen (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Miles Greer743313
Saveon Brown527224
Keontez Bradley280004
Kobi Blackwell200007
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Miles Greer743313
Saveon Brown527224
Cornell Evans142111
Messiah Burch10000
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kobi Blackwell200007
Keontez Bradley280004
Saveon Brown527224